LEADER 06502oam 22014654 450 001 9910779500403321 005 20230802005526.0 010 $a1-4755-1691-6 010 $a1-4755-5824-4 035 $a(CKB)2550000000107544 035 $a(EBL)1606796 035 $a(SSID)ssj0000953126 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11551737 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000953126 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)10910203 035 $a(PQKB)10773241 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC1606796 035 $a(Au-PeEL)EBL1606796 035 $a(CaPaEBR)ebr10579630 035 $a(OCoLC)795743660 035 $a(IMF)WPIEE2012153 035 $a(IMF)WPIEA2012153 035 $a(EXLCZ)992550000000107544 100 $a20020129d2012 uf 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aurcn||||||||| 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 10$aFiscal Foresight and Information Flows /$fTodd Walker, Eric Leeper, Susan Yang 210 1$aWashington, D.C. :$cInternational Monetary Fund,$d2012. 215 $a1 online resource (66 p.) 225 1 $aIMF Working Papers 300 $aDescription based upon print version of record. 311 $a1-4755-7332-4 311 $a1-4755-0435-7 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references. 327 $aCover; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Analytical Example; A. The Econometrics of Foresight; Figures; 1. Responses of Capital to Tax Increase; B. Generalizations; III. Quantitative Importance of Foresight; A. Modeling Information Flows; B. Model Descriptions; C. Information Flows and Estimation Bias; Tables; 1. Information Flow Processes; IV. Solving the Problem; 2. Output Multipliers for a Labor Tax Change; A. An Organizing Principle; B. Lines of Attack; 1. The Narrative Approach; 2. Conditioning on Asset Prices; 3. Direct Estimation of DSGE Model; V. Concluding Remarks; Appendices 327 $aI. Simulations Details II. Testing Economic Theory; III. Municipal Bonds and Fiscal Foresight: Additional Results; IV. Assessing the Ex-Ante Approach; References 330 3 $aNews - or foresight - about future economic fundamentals can create rational expectations equilibria with non-fundamental representations that pose substantial challenges to econometric efforts to recover the structural shocks to which economic agents react. Using tax policies as a leading example of foresight, simple theory makes transparent the economic behavior and information structures that generate non-fundamental equilibria. Econometric analyses that fail to model foresight will obtain biased estimates of output multipliers for taxes; biases are quantitatively important when two canonical theoretical models are taken as data generating processes. Both the nature of equilibria and the inferences about the effects of anticipated tax changes hinge critically on hypothesized information flows. Different methods for extracting or hypothesizing the information flows are discussed and shown to be alternative techniques for resolving a non-uniqueness problem endemic to moving average representations. 410 0$aIMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;$vNo. 2012/153 606 $aTaxation 606 $aFiscal policy 606 $aInformation theory in economics 606 $aEconometrics$2imf 606 $aInvestments: Bonds$2imf 606 $aPublic Finance$2imf 606 $aTaxation$2imf 606 $aFiscal Policy$2imf 606 $aFiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents: General$2imf 606 $aGeneral Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data)$2imf 606 $aTime-Series Models$2imf 606 $aDynamic Quantile Regressions$2imf 606 $aDynamic Treatment Effect Models$2imf 606 $aDiffusion Processes$2imf 606 $aNational Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General$2imf 606 $aPersonal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies$2imf 606 $aTax Law$2imf 606 $aInvestment & securities$2imf 606 $aEconometrics & economic statistics$2imf 606 $aPublic finance & taxation$2imf 606 $aWelfare & benefit systems$2imf 606 $aMacroeconomics$2imf 606 $aTaxation & duties law$2imf 606 $aMunicipal bonds$2imf 606 $aVector autoregression$2imf 606 $aExpenditure$2imf 606 $aLabor taxes$2imf 606 $aFiscal policy$2imf 606 $aFinancial institutions$2imf 606 $aEconometric analysis$2imf 606 $aTaxes$2imf 606 $aTax law$2imf 606 $aTax policy$2imf 606 $aBonds$2imf 606 $aExpenditures, Public$2imf 606 $aIncome tax$2imf 606 $aLaw and legislation$2imf 607 $aUnited States$2imf 615 0$aTaxation. 615 0$aFiscal policy. 615 0$aInformation theory in economics. 615 7$aEconometrics 615 7$aInvestments: Bonds 615 7$aPublic Finance 615 7$aTaxation 615 7$aFiscal Policy 615 7$aFiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents: General 615 7$aGeneral Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) 615 7$aTime-Series Models 615 7$aDynamic Quantile Regressions 615 7$aDynamic Treatment Effect Models 615 7$aDiffusion Processes 615 7$aNational Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General 615 7$aPersonal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies 615 7$aTax Law 615 7$aInvestment & securities 615 7$aEconometrics & economic statistics 615 7$aPublic finance & taxation 615 7$aWelfare & benefit systems 615 7$aMacroeconomics 615 7$aTaxation & duties law 615 7$aMunicipal bonds 615 7$aVector autoregression 615 7$aExpenditure 615 7$aLabor taxes 615 7$aFiscal policy 615 7$aFinancial institutions 615 7$aEconometric analysis 615 7$aTaxes 615 7$aTax law 615 7$aTax policy 615 7$aBonds 615 7$aExpenditures, Public 615 7$aIncome tax 615 7$aLaw and legislation 700 $aWalker$b Todd$01481157 701 $aLeeper$b Eric$01481158 701 $aYang$b Susan$01481159 712 02$aNational Bureau of Economic Research. 801 0$bDcWaIMF 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910779500403321 996 $aFiscal Foresight and Information Flows$93698040 997 $aUNINA