LEADER 06821oam 22008774 450 001 9910779329803321 005 20230802005638.0 010 $a1-4755-3277-6 010 $a1-4755-7837-7 010 $a1-283-86670-6 010 $a1-4755-5991-7 035 $a(CKB)2550000000709405 035 $a(EBL)1607004 035 $a(SSID)ssj0000941764 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11514417 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000941764 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)10964465 035 $a(PQKB)10001129 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC1607004 035 $a(Au-PeEL)EBL1607004 035 $a(CaPaEBR)ebr10635355 035 $a(CaONFJC)MIL417920 035 $a(OCoLC)870245064 035 $a(IMF)REOMCDEE2012002 035 $a(IMF)REOMCDEA2012002 035 $a(EXLCZ)992550000000709405 100 $a20020129d2012 uf 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aurcn||||||||| 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 10$aRegional Economic Outlook, November 2012, Middle East and Central Asia 210 1$aWashington, D.C. :$cInternational Monetary Fund,$d2012. 215 $a1 online resource (131 p.) 225 1 $aRegional Economic Outlook 300 $aDescription based upon print version of record. 311 $a1-4755-1081-0 327 $aCover; Contents; Acknowledgments; Assumptions and Conventions; Country and Regional Groupings; World Economic Outlook; MIDDLE EAST, NORTH AFRICA, AFGHANISTAN, AND PAKISTAN; MENAP Highlights; Tables; MENAP Region: Selected Economic Indicators, 2000-13; Re?gion MOANAP: Principaux points; 1. MENAP Oil Exporters: Increase Resilience and Create Private-Sector Jobs; Oil GDP Growth Falling, Non-Oil GDP Growth Healthy; Figures; 1.1 2012 GDP Growth Boosted by Libya; 1.2 Non-Oil GDP Growth Healthy; Boxes; 1.1 Libya: Moving Beyond the Revolution; Wage Increases Weaken Public Finances 327 $a1.3 Qatar Has Driven Gas Export Growth 1.4 Government Wage Bills Rising Fast; 1.5 Fiscal Positions Have Deteriorated; 1.2 What Is the 'Right' Surplus for the GCC?; A Sustained Large Drop in Oil Prices Is a Key Risk; 1.3 Outward Spillovers from a GDP Shock in the GCC Region; Expenditure Restraint Would Increase Resilience; 1.6 Fiscal Balances Sensitive to Oil Prices; 1.7 Fiscal Vulnerability Rising; 1.8 Probability that Oil Price Falls Below Fiscal Break even Price; Current Account Surpluses Sensitive to Oil Price; Inflation Developments Mixed; 1.9 Large Current Account Surpluses 327 $a1.10 Credit Growth Rising 1.11 Event Study of Oil Prices, 1970-2012; Renewed Bond Issuance; 1.12 GCC Sukuk Issuance Up; 1.13 GCC Bond Yields Down; Reforms for More Inclusive Growth; 1.4 Financial Spillovers to MENAP Oil Exporters; 1.14 Stock Markets Have Made Gains in 2012; 1.15 MENAP Oil Exporters: Restricted International Trade in Services; 1.16 Private-Sector Job Creation for GCC Nationals: High But Not Enough; Annex 1.1. The Natural Gas Market: Where Is It Heading?; Natural Gas Supply Is Meeting Demand; The Increasing Importance of Shale Gas 327 $aBenefits of Indexation to Oil, Regional Segmentation Annex 1.2. Inward Spillovers to MENA Countries from a GDP Shock in G3 Countries; Shock to Chinese GDP; Shock to U.S. GDP; Shock to Euro Area GDP; MENAP Oil Exporters: Selected Economic Indicators; 2. MENAP Oil Importers: Restore Macroeconomic Sustainability and Accelerate Growth; Downturn Continues in 2012, Possible Moderate Recovery in 2013; 2.1 Exports and Imports of Goods; 2.1 Syria's Crisis: Domestic Economic Impact and Regional Spillovers; Inflation Stable in Most Countries, But Concerns Rising 327 $a2.2 Real GDP Growth in 2012 Similar to 20112.3 Weak Recovery in 2013; 2.4 Inflationary Pressures; 2.2 The Economics of Political Transitions; External Deficits Widening, Reserve Buffers Diminished; 2.5 Exchange Rates Have Appreciated in Some Countries; 2.6 International Tourist Arrivals; 2.7 External Current Account Deficits Continue to Widen; 2.3 Recovering from a Downturn: Lessons from Past Business Cycles; Need for Greater Exchange Rate Flexibility; 2.8 International Issuance of Bonds, Equity, and Loans; 2.9 Official Financing Disbursed since Arab Awakening 327 $a2.10 Gross International Reserves Declining 330 3 $aThe outlook for the Middle East and North Africa region is mixed. Oil-importing countries are witnessing tepid growth, and the moderate recovery expected in 2013 is subject to heightened downside risks. For the Arab countries in transition, ongoing political transitions also weigh on growth. With policy buffers largely eroded, the need for action on macroeconomic stabilization and growth-oriented reforms is becoming increasingly urgent. Countries will need to put in place safety nets to protect the poor and build consensus for some difficult fiscal choices. The region?s oil exporters are expected to post solid growth in 2012, in part due to Libya?s better-than-expected postwar recovery. In the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council, robust growth is supported by expansionary fiscal policies and accommodative monetary conditions. In the Caucasus and Central Asia, the outlook remains favorable, reflecting high oil prices that are benefiting oil and gas exporters, supportive commodity prices and remittance inflows benefiting oil and gas importers, and, for both groups, moderate direct exposure to Europe. The positive outlook provides an opportunity to strengthen policy buffers to prepare for any downside risks. 410 0$aRegional Economic Outlook 606 $aEconomic forecasting$zMiddle East 606 $aEconomic forecasting$zAsia, Central 606 $aMacroeconomics$2imf 606 $aInternational Economics$2imf 606 $aInternational Agreements and Observance$2imf 606 $aInternational Organizations$2imf 606 $aForeign Exchange$2imf 606 $aInternational institutions$2imf 606 $aEconomic & financial crises & disasters$2imf 606 $aInternational organization$2imf 606 $aFinancial crises$2imf 606 $aCurrency crises$2imf 615 0$aEconomic forecasting 615 0$aEconomic forecasting 615 7$aMacroeconomics 615 7$aInternational Economics 615 7$aInternational Agreements and Observance 615 7$aInternational Organizations 615 7$aForeign Exchange 615 7$aInternational institutions 615 7$aEconomic & financial crises & disasters 615 7$aInternational organization 615 7$aFinancial crises 615 7$aCurrency crises 712 02$aInternational Monetary Fund. 801 0$bDcWaIMF 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910779329803321 996 $aRegional Economic Outlook, November 2012, Middle East and Central Asia$93824708 997 $aUNINA