LEADER 08151oam 22013934 450 001 9910779290003321 005 20230725060439.0 010 $a1-4639-6060-3 010 $a1-4639-9865-1 010 $a1-283-53715-X 010 $a9786613849601 010 $a1-4639-3764-4 035 $a(CKB)2550000000102992 035 $a(EBL)1587282 035 $a(SSID)ssj0001107482 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11634145 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0001107482 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)11082146 035 $a(PQKB)10802559 035 $a(SSID)ssj0000674638 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)12246775 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000674638 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)10662338 035 $a(PQKB)10988546 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC1587282 035 $a(Au-PeEL)EBL1587282 035 $a(CaPaEBR)ebr10557415 035 $a(CaONFJC)MIL384960 035 $a(OCoLC)867927536 035 $a(IMF)REOMCDEE2011002 035 $a(EXLCZ)992550000000102992 100 $a20020129d2011 uf 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aurcn||||||||| 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 10$aRegional Economic Outlook, October 2011, Middle East and Central Asia 210 1$aWashington, D.C. :$cInternational Monetary Fund,$d2011. 215 $a1 online resource (117 p.) 225 1 $aRegional Economic Outlook 225 0$aWorld economic and financial surveys 300 $a"Oct 11." 311 $a1-61635-129-2 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references. 327 $aCover; Contents; Acknowledgments; Assumptions and Conventions; Country and Regional Groupings; World Economic Outlook; MIDDLE EAST, NORTH AFRICA, AFGHANISTAN, AND PAKISTAN; MENAP Highlights; (omitted); Principaux points; 1. MENAP Oil Exporters: Benefiting from High Oil Prices amid Growing Risks; Gradual Recovery Continues; Figures; 1.1 On the Back of High Oil Prices, the Recovery Continues; 1.2 Strong Fluctuations in Oil Sector GDP, Non-Oil Remains Steady; Boxes; 1.1 Libyan Revolution: Economic Impact and Challenges Ahead; 1.2 Sudan and South Sudan: Beyond the Breakup 327 $aFiscal Expansion Continues, with New Vigor in the Social Sector Table; 1.1 New Spending Measures Announced in 2011; Fiscal, External Balances Improve despite Higher Spending; 1.3 Non-Oil Fiscal Deficits Have Been Widening in Most Countries; 1.4 Most Oil Exporters Have Ramped Up Spending; Financial Conditions Point to Increased Regional, Global Risk; 1.5 Despite Higher Spending, Fiscal Balances Improve in Most Countries; 1.6 Current Account Balances Improve Further; 1.7 Sovereign Risk Levels Still Elevated; Banks Gain Strength, but Credit Recovery Remains Subdued 327 $a1.8 GCC Countries: Spillover Coefficient from Financial Distress in Other MENA Countries 1.9 Stock Market Indices Still Not Back to Pre-Lehman Levels; Inflationary Pressures Modest amid High Commodity Prices; Echoes of 2008, but with Key Differences in Risk Tolerance; 1.10 Financial Stability Improving, but Vulnerabilities Still Present; 1.11 GCC Credit Growth Is Still Mostly Subdued ... Although Deposits Are Picking Up; 1.12 Some Inflationary Pressures in the Oil Exporters ... But Inflation Still Subdued in the GCC; 1.13 Fiscal Break-Even Oil Prices Have Been Creeping Upward 327 $a1.14 International Issuance of Bonds, Loans, and Equity Designing Fiscal Policy for the Long Haul; Monetary Policy for Stability and Growth; 1.3 Labor Markets in the GCC; Structural Reforms Should Continue; 1.15 High Loan Concentration in MENA; Annex 1.1. Medium-Term Outlook on the Production of Oil and Natural Gas; 2. MENAP Oil Importers: Meeting Social Needs, Restoring Economic Confidence; Sharp Downturn to Last through 2012; 2.1 Real GDP Growth Stalls in 2011; 2.2 Private and Public Investment Have Declined 327 $a2.1 Mitigating the Impact of High Energy Prices: Oil Importers as Commodity Exporters Inflation Remains Stable as Food and Fuel Subsidies Rise; External Balances Are Worsening; 2.3 Real GDP Growth Forecasts Revised Downward; 2.4 Inflationary Pressures Muted; 2.5 Real Policy Interest Rates Near Zero; 2.2 Global Linkages and Regional Spillovers from the Slowdown in Europe; 2.6 Oil Import Bills Rising; Financial Markets Have Taken a Hit; 2.7 MENAP Oil Importers Tourism Activity; 2.8 International Capital Market Issuance; 2.9 Stock Market Indices Lower; 2.10 Sovereign Bond Spreads Higher 327 $aSpending Escalates with Universal Subsidies Rising Sharply 330 3 $aThe Arab Spring holds the promise of improved living standards and a more prosperous future for the peoples of the Middle East and North Africa region. At the same time, the region is witnessing uncertainty and economic pressures from domestic and external sources, which will likely be exacerbated by the recent worsening of the global economy. The main challenge in the short term will be to manage expectations while maintaining economic stability. To that end, better-targeted subsidies and transfers will help free up resources for investment in infrastructure, education, and health. Policies aimed at fostering inclusive growth will also help cement the longer-term benefits of the ongoing changes in the region. In the Caucasus and Central Asia, the economic outlook is broadly positive. Exports and remittances--key growth drivers in 2010--are continuing to grow solidly, helping the recovery gain firm momentum. At the same time, uncertainties over the robustness of the global recovery constitute a downside risk to the growth outlook. Key challenges facing the region over the medium term are to create jobs and foster high and inclusive growth. 410 0$aRegional Economic Outlook 517 3 $aMiddle East and Central Asia 606 $aEconomic forecasting$zMiddle East 606 $aEconomic forecasting$zAsia, Central 606 $aInvestments: Energy$2imf 606 $aExports and Imports$2imf 606 $aInflation$2imf 606 $aLabor$2imf 606 $aMacroeconomics$2imf 606 $aEnergy: General$2imf 606 $aEnergy: Demand and Supply$2imf 606 $aPrices$2imf 606 $aPrice Level$2imf 606 $aDeflation$2imf 606 $aUnemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search$2imf 606 $aRemittances$2imf 606 $aInvestment & securities$2imf 606 $aLabour$2imf 606 $aincome economics$2imf 606 $aInternational economics$2imf 606 $aEnergy industries & utilities$2imf 606 $aOil$2imf 606 $aUnemployment$2imf 606 $aOil prices$2imf 606 $aFuel prices$2imf 606 $aCommodities$2imf 606 $aBalance of payments$2imf 606 $aPetroleum industry and trade$2imf 606 $aInternational finance$2imf 606 $aExpenditures, Public$2imf 606 $aFood prices$2imf 607 $aKyrgyz Republic$2imf 615 0$aEconomic forecasting 615 0$aEconomic forecasting 615 7$aInvestments: Energy 615 7$aExports and Imports 615 7$aInflation 615 7$aLabor 615 7$aMacroeconomics 615 7$aEnergy: General 615 7$aEnergy: Demand and Supply 615 7$aPrices 615 7$aPrice Level 615 7$aDeflation 615 7$aUnemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search 615 7$aRemittances 615 7$aInvestment & securities 615 7$aLabour 615 7$aincome economics 615 7$aInternational economics 615 7$aEnergy industries & utilities 615 7$aOil 615 7$aUnemployment 615 7$aOil prices 615 7$aFuel prices 615 7$aCommodities 615 7$aBalance of payments 615 7$aPetroleum industry and trade 615 7$aInternational finance 615 7$aExpenditures, Public 615 7$aFood prices 712 02$aInternational Monetary Fund. 801 0$bDcWaIMF 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910779290003321 996 $aRegional Economic Outlook, October 2011, Middle East and Central Asia$93782699 997 $aUNINA