LEADER 04688nam 22005773 450 001 9910778641403321 005 20231002180355.0 010 $a1-280-21186-5 010 $a9786610211869 010 $a0-309-55730-5 010 $a0-585-00194-4 035 $a(CKB)111000211177052 035 $a(EBL)3377179 035 $a(SSID)ssj0000177387 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)12055483 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000177387 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)10210461 035 $a(PQKB)11490061 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC3377179 035 $a(EXLCZ)99111000211177052 100 $a20160215d1991|||| uy 0 101 0 $aeng 181 $ctxt$2rdacontent 182 $cc$2rdamedia 183 $acr$2rdacarrier 200 10$aImproving information for social policy decisions$hVol. 1$iReview and recommendations : the uses of microsimulation modeling 210 1$aWashington :$cNational Academies Press,$d1991. 215 $a1 online resource (346 pages) $cillustrations 311 0 $a0-309-04541-X 327 $aImproving Information for Social Policy Decisions; Copyright; Contents; Acknowledgments; Summary; IMPROVING THE TOOLS OF POLICY ANALYSIS: INVESTMENT PRIORITIES; Validation; Better Data; THE ROLE OF MICROSIMULATION AS A POLICY ANALYSIS TOOL; Databases; Model Design and Development; Computing Technology; Validation; Documentation and Archiving; The Structure of the Community; The Use of Microsimulation for Basic Research; RECOMMENDATIONS FOR IMPROVING POLICY ANALYSIS; Data; Validation; RECOMMENDATIONS FOR MICROSIMULATION MODELS; Databases; Model Design and Development; Computing Technology 327 $aHealth Care and Retirement Policy Modeling Validation; Documentation and Archiving; Structure of the Microsimulation Modeling Community; 1 Introduction; A SCENE IN WASHINGTON, D.C.; THE TOOLS OF POLICY ANALYSIS; THE PANEL STUDY; Part I Information for Social Welfare Policy: Toward A Second Revolution; 2 The Search for Useful Information; THE FIRST INFORMATION REVOLUTION; POLICY ANALYSIS: BETWEEN SOCIAL SCIENCE RESEARCH AND POLITICS; A CASE STUDY OF POLICY ANALYSIS: THE FAMILY SUPPORT ACT OF 1988; Provisions That Could Be Estimated With Microsimulation Models 327 $aProvisions That Could Not Be Estimated With Microsimulation Models Problems in the Estimation Process; 3 Improving the Tools and Uses of Policy Analysis; A STRATEGY FOR INVESTMENT; DATA QUALITY AND AVAILABILITY; Investment in Data Production; Coordination of Data Production; Broadened Data Collection; Linking Survey and Administrative Data; Adding Value to Existing Data; VALIDATION; The Difficulty of Validation; Kinds of Model Validation; External Validation; Internal Validation; Investment in Model Validation; DOCUMENTATION AND COMMUNICATION OF THE RESULTS OF POLICY ANALYSIS 327 $aDocumentation and Archiving as Aids to Validation Communicating Validation Results to Decision Makers; Appendix Models, Uncertainty, and Confidence Intervals; MODELS; UNCERTAINTY OF AN ESTIMATE; CONDITIONAL VERSUS UNCONDITIONAL CONFIDENCE INTERVALS; AN ILLUSTRATIVE DIAGRAM; Part II The Role of Microsimulation as a Policy Analysis Tool; 4 Microsimulation Models: Then and Now; BASIC ELEMENTS OF MICROSIMULATION MODELS; DEVELOPMENT OF MICROSIMULATION MODELING FOR POLICY ANALYSIS; Origins: 1950's to mid-1960's; Development of Static Models: Late 1960's to Early 1980's 327 $aDevelopment of Dynamic Models: 1970's to Early 1980's Retreats and Advances: The 1980's; ROLE AND CURRENT STATUS OF MICROSIMULATION: FINDINGS; Overall Value; A Range of Policy Analysis Tools; Analytical Costs; Model Uncertainty; Data Adequacy; Research Knowledge; Computer Technologies; Microsimulation Modeling Community; Future Directions; 5 Databases for Microsimulation; DATA QUALITY: THE MARCH CPS; Survey-Based Problems; Coverage; Response Rates; Sampling Error; Missing Detail; Data Omissions; STRATEGIES FOR TREATING MISSING AND ERRONEOUS DATA; Disaggregation; Imputation for Item Nonresponse 327 $aImputation for Items Not Collected 606 $aPublic welfare$xDecision making 606 $aSocial policy$xDecision making 606 $aSocial policy$xSimulation methods 606 $aDecision making$xMathematical models 615 0$aPublic welfare$xDecision making 615 0$aSocial policy$xDecision making 615 0$aSocial policy$xSimulation methods 615 0$aDecision making$xMathematical models 676 $a361.6/1 801 0$bAU-PeEL 801 1$bAU-PeEL 801 2$bAU-PeEL 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910778641403321 996 $aImproving information for social policy decisions$93753028 997 $aUNINA