LEADER 04486oam 2200685I 450 001 9910702926503321 005 20240409230135.0 010 $a1-138-88822-2 010 $a1-315-71365-9 010 $a1-317-49865-8 024 7 $a10.4324/9781315713656 035 $a(CKB)2670000000603159 035 $a(EBL)2002009 035 $a(SSID)ssj0001573109 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)16226719 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0001573109 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)14840636 035 $a(PQKB)10960915 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC2002009 035 $a(OCoLC)958107325 035 $a(OCoLC)609405664 035 $a(EXLCZ)992670000000603159 100 $a20180706e20151994 uy 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aur|n|---||||| 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 10$aPredicting turning points in the interest rate cycle /$fJames W. Coons 205 $a1st ed. 210 1$aLondon ;$aNew York :$cRoutledge,$d2015. 215 $a1 online resource (154 p.) 225 0 $aRoutledge Library Editions: Business Cycles ;$vVolume 2 300 $a"First published in 1994"--t.p. verso. 311 $a1-138-88798-6 311 $a1-336-22144-5 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references and index. 327 $aCover; Half Title; Title Page; Copyright Page; Original Title Page; Original Copyright Page; Dedication; Table of Contents; Preface; List of Illustrations; List of Tables; List of Abbreviations; I. Introduction; Purpose and Scope; Research Methods; Delimitations; Limitations; Structure of the Book; II. The Folly of Forecasting; The Record of the Experts; Benchmark Measures; The Naive Approach; Expectations and the Term Structure; Expectations and the Futures Market; The Stumbling Block of Market Efficiency; The Forecaster's Paradox; The Fallacy of Omission 327 $aToward a Redefinition of the ProblemIII. The Interest Rate Cycle; Elements of a Cycle; Other Major Moves; ""I Know One When I See One""; Shooting in the Dark; What is the Interest Rate Cycle?; The Composite Interest Rate Cycle Index; Construction of the Index; Standardization; Trend Elimination; Index Cumulation; Identification of Peaks and Troughs; In Search of a Method; The Guiding Light of Monetary Policy; Selection Rules and Results; Birds of a Feather; Summary; IV. Benchmark Turning Point Forecasts; The Naive Filter; Tuning in the Signal; Scoring the Benchmark Forecasts; A Broader Scope 327 $aV. Selecting a Leading IndicatorFactors Affecting Interest Rates; The Wicksellian Theory of Loanable Funds; The Gibson Paradox and the Fisher Effect; The Inflation-Interest Rate Link; Measuring the Theory; The Fisher Equations; The Loanable Funds Model; Selectinga Leading Indicator; How to Pick a Winner; The Leading Inflation Index; VI. Sequential Filter Turning Point Forecasts; In Search of a Signal; Sequential Analysis to the Rescue; Applying Neftci's Algorithm; The Framework; The Model; Application to the Interest Rate Cycle; Conditional Probability Distributions; Pick Your Poison 327 $aEmpirical ResultsComparison with Benchmark Forecasts; Asleep at the Switch?; Twice as Nice; State of Rates Recognition; The Current State of Rates; Keeping in Touch; VII. Summary and Conclusions; The Model and the Test; Specific Findings; Conclusions; Suggestions for Further Research; Afterword; Bibliography; Index 330 $a

Originally published in 1994 and the recipient of the Stonier Library Award, this volume evaluates an alternative approach - the sequential filter- to managing the uncertainty inherent in the future course of the interest rate cycle. The specific hypothesis is that the sequential filter can produce valuable signals of cyclical peaks and troughs in interest rates. The analysis focusses on US interest rates from April 1953 to December 1988.

410 0$aRoutledge Library Editions: Business Cycles 606 $aInterest rates 606 $aBusiness cycles 615 0$aInterest rates. 615 0$aBusiness cycles. 676 $a332.82 676 $a332.6323 700 $aCoons$b James W.$f1957-,$01352740 701 $aGeweke$b John$0121506 701 $aMiller$b Preston J$0141658 712 02$aUnited States.$bCongressional Budget Office. 801 0$bMiAaPQ 801 1$bMiAaPQ 801 2$bMiAaPQ 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910702926503321 996 $aPredicting turning points in the interest rate cycle$93539308 997 $aUNINA