LEADER 09433nam 2200709 a 450 001 9910659227603321 005 20251116221347.0 010 $a1-61324-075-9 035 $a(CKB)2560000000071246 035 $a(EBL)3019417 035 $a(SSID)ssj0000468674 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)12167777 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000468674 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)10514588 035 $a(PQKB)10526909 035 $a(Au-PeEL)EBL3019417 035 $a(CaPaEBR)ebr10670982 035 $a(OCoLC)704277122 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC3019417 035 $a(OCoLC)228854688 035 $a(BIP)43288092 035 $a(BIP)23317753 035 $a(EXLCZ)992560000000071246 100 $a20090625d2009 uy 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aur|n|---||||| 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 04$aThe effects of climate change on agriculture, land resources, water resources, and biodiversity in the United States /$fPeter Backlund, Anthony Janetos, and David Schimel, editors 205 $a1st ed. 210 $aNew York $cNova Science Publishers$d2009 210 1$aWashington, DC :$cU.S. Climate Change Science Program,$d[2008] 215 $a1 online resource (266 p.) 225 1 $aSynthesis and assessment product ;$v4.3 300 $aDescription based upon print version of record. 311 08$a1-60456-989-1 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references and index. 327 $aIntro -- THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ONAGRICULTURE, LAND RESOURCES,WATER RESOURCES,AND BIODIVERSITY IN THEUNITED STATES -- THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AGRICULTURE, LAND RESOURCES, WATER RESOURCES, AND BIODIVERSITY IN THE UNITED STATES -- CONTENTS -- PREFACE* -- EXECUTIVE SUMMARY -- 1. INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND -- Scope -- Time Horizon -- Ascribing Confidence to Findings -- Climate Context -- 2. OVERARCHING CONCLUSIONS -- 3. KEY QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS -- 4. SECTORAL FINDINGS -- Agriculture -- Land Resources -- Water Resources -- Biodiversity -- INTRODUCTION -- INTENT OF THIS REPORT -- SCOPE OF THIS REPORT -- GUIDING QUESTIONS FOR THIS REPORT -- ASCRIBING CONFIDENCE TO FINDINGS -- TIME HORIZON FOR THIS REPORT -- GLOBAL CLIMATE CONTEXT -- U.S. CLIMATE CONTEXT -- Ecological and Biological Context -- ATTRIBUTION OF ECOSYSTEM CHANGES -- SUMMARY -- AGRICULTURE -- 2.1. INTRODUCTION -- 2.2. Observed Changes and Responses -- 2.2.1. Crops -- 2.2.2. Pastureland -- 2.2.3. Rangelands -- 2.2.4. Temperature Response of Animals -- 2.2.5. Episodes of Extreme Events -- 2.3. POSSIBLE FUTURE CHANGES AND IMPACTS -- 2.3.1. projections Based on Increment ofTemperature and CO2 for Crops -- 2.3.2. Projections for Weeds -- 2.3.3. Projections for Insects and Pathogens -- 2.3.4. projections for Rangelands -- 2.3.5. Climatic Influences on Livestock -- 2.4. OBSERVING/MONITORING SYSTEMS -- 2.4.1. Monitoring Relevant to Crops -- 2.4.2. Monitoring Relevant to Pasturelands -- 2.4.3. Monitoring Relevant to Rangelands -- 2.5. INTERACTIONS AMONG SYSTEMS -- 2.5.1. Climate Change and Sustainability of Pasturelands -- 2.6. FINDINGS AND CONCLUSIONS -- 2.6.1. Crops -- 2.6.2. Weeds -- 2.6.3. Insects and Disease Pests -- 2.6.4. Pasturelands -- 2.6.5. Rangelands -- 2.6.6. Animal Production Systems -- LAND RESOURCES:FORESTS AND ARID LANDS -- 3.1. INTRODUCTION -- 3.2. FORESTS. 327 $a3.2.1. Brief Summary of Key Points from the Literature -- 3.2.2. Observed Changes or Trends -- 3.2.3. Possible Future Changes and Impacts -- 3.2.4. Indicators and Observing Systems -- 3.2.5. How Changes in One ResourceCan Affect Other Resources -- 3.3. ARID LANDS -- 3.3.1. Brief Summary of Key Points from the Literature -- 3.3.2. Observed and Predicted Changes or Trends -- 3.3.3. Species Distributions and Community Dynamics -- 3.3.4. Ecosystem Processes -- 3.3.5. Arid Land Rivers and Riparian Zones -- 3.3.6. Water and Wind Erosion -- 3.3.7. Indicators and Observing Systems -- 3.4. FINDINGS AND CONCLUSIONS -- 3.4.1. Forests -- 3.4.2. Arid Lands -- 3.4.3. Observing Systems for Forests and Arid Lands -- WATER RESOURCES -- 4.1. INTRODUCTION -- 4.1.1. Hydroclimatic Variability in the United States -- 4.1.2. Characteristics of Managed WaterResources in the United States -- 4.1.3. U.S. Water Use and Water Use Trends -- 4.2. OBSERVED CHANGES INU.S.WATER RESOURCES -- 4.2.1. Observed Streamflow Trends -- 4.2.2. Evaporation Trends -- 4.2.3. U.S. Drought Trends -- 4.2.4. Regional Assessment of Changes in U.S. Water Resources -- 4.2.5. Water Quality -- 4.3. ATTRIBUTION OF CHANGES -- 4.4. FUTURE CHANGES AND IMPACTS -- 4.4.1. Hydrology and Water Resources -- 4.4.2. Water Quality -- 4.4.3. Groundwater -- 4.5. HYDROLOGY-LANDSCAPE INTERACTIONS -- 4.6. OBSERVING SYSTEMS -- 4.7. FINDINGS AND CONCLUSIONS -- BIODIVERSITY -- 5.1. INTRODUCTION AND FRAMEWORK -- 5.2. CHANGES IN DISTRIBUTION AND PHENOLOGIESIN TERRESTRIAL ECOSYSTEMS -- 5.2.1. Growing Season Length andNet Primary Production Shifts -- 5.2.2. Biogeographical and Phenological Shifts -- 5.2.3. Geographical and Distributional Responses of Plants -- 5.3. CHANGES IN COASTAL AND NEAR-SHORE ECOSYSTEMS -- 5.3.1. Coral Reefs -- 5.3.2. Coastal Communities and Ecosystems. 327 $a5.4.CLIMATE CHANGE,MARINE FISHERIESAND MARINE ECOSYSTEM CHANGE -- 5.4.1. Other Climate-Driven Physical Forcesthat Affect Marine Ecosystems -- 5.4.2. Observed and Projected Impacts -- 5.5. CHANGES IN PESTS AND PATHOGENS -- 5.5.1. Interactions of Climate Change with Pests,Pathogens, and Invasive Species -- 5.6. PARTICULARLY SENSITIVE SYSTEMS -- 5.6.1. Impacts of Climate Change on Montane Ecosystems -- 5.6.2. Arctic Sea-Ice Ecosystems -- 5.7. ECOSYSTEM SERVICES AND EXPECTATIONSFOR FUTURE CHANGE -- 5.8. ADEQUACY OF OBSERVING SYSTEMS -- 5.9.MAJOR FINDINGS -- 5.9.1. Growing Season and Phenology -- 5.9.2. Biogeographical and Phenological Shifts -- 5.9.3. Migratory Birds -- 5.9.4. Butterflies -- 5.9.5. Coastal and Near Shore Systems -- 5.9.6. Corals -- 5.9.7. Marine Fisheries -- 5.9.8. Pests and Pathogens -- 5.9.9. Invasive Plants -- 5.9.10. Particularly Sensitive Systems -- 5.9.11. Arctic Sea-Ice Ecosystems -- 5.10. CONCLUSIONS -- SYNTHESIS -- 6.1. INTRODUCTION -- 6.2. KEY QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS -- 6.3. DESIGNING SYSTEMS TO MONITORCLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS -- 6.4. INTEGRATION OF ECO- SYSTEM OBSERVATIONS,MODELING,EXPERIMENTS AND ANALYSIS -- 6.5. OVERARCHING CONCLUSIONS -- INDEX. 330 $aThis book provides an assessment of the effects of climate change on U.S. agriculture, land resources, and biodiversity. It is one of a series of 21 Synthesis and Assessment Products (SAP) that are being produced under the auspices of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP).This book builds on an extensive scientific literature and series of recent assessments of the historical and potential impacts of climate change and climate variability on managed and unmanaged ecosystems and their constituent biota and processes. It discusses the nation's ability to identify, observe, and monitor the stresses that influence agriculture, land resources, water resources, and biodiversity, and evaluates the relative importance of these stresses and how they are likely to change in the future. It identifies changes in resource conditions that are now being observed, and examines whether these changes can be attributed in whole or part to climate change. The general time horizon for this book is from the recent past through the period 2030-2050, although longer-term results out to 2100 are also considered. There is robust scientific consensus that human-induced climate change is occurring. Records of temperature and precipitation in the United States show trends consistent with the current state of global-scale understanding and observations of change. Observations also show that climate change is currently impacting the nation's ecosystems and services in significant ways, and those alterations are very likely to accelerate in the future, in some cases dramatically. Current observational capabilities are considered inadequate to fully understand and address the future scope and rate of change in all ecological sectors. Additionally, the complex interactions between change agents such as climate, land use alteration, and species invasion create dynamics that confound simple causal relationships and will severely complicate the development and assessment of mitigation and adaptation strategies. 606 $aClimatic changes$xEnvironmental aspects$zUnited States 606 $aAgriculture$xEnvironmental aspects$zUnited States 606 $aBiodiversity$xEnvironmental aspects$zUnited States 606 $aBiotic communities$xEnvironmental aspects$zUnited States 615 0$aClimatic changes$xEnvironmental aspects 615 0$aAgriculture$xEnvironmental aspects 615 0$aBiodiversity$xEnvironmental aspects 615 0$aBiotic communities$xEnvironmental aspects 676 $a551.6973 701 $aBacklund$b Peter$0452803 701 $aJanetos$b Anthony C$01186473 701 $aSchimel$b David Steven$0324667 712 02$aNational Science and Technology Council (U.S.).$bSubcommittee on Global Change Research. 801 0$bMiAaPQ 801 1$bMiAaPQ 801 2$bMiAaPQ 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910659227603321 996 $aThe effects of climate change on agriculture, land resources, water resources, and biodiversity in the United States$92749944 997 $aUNINA