LEADER 04866oam 2200901 450 001 9910554499403321 005 20240102235722.0 010 $a0-231-55335-8 024 7 $a10.7312/clay19994 035 $a(OCoLC)1240264669 035 $a(OCoLC)on1240264669 035 $a(DE-B1597)600423 035 $a(DE-B1597)9780231553353 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC6381596 035 $a(PPN)266300812 035 $a(CKB)4100000011991954 035 $a(EXLCZ)994100000011991954 100 $a20210226d2021 uy 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aur||||||||||| 181 $ctxt$2rdacontent 182 $cc$2rdamedia 183 $acr$2rdacarrier 200 10$aBernoulli's fallacy $estatistical illogic and the crisis of modern science /$fAubrey Clayton 210 1$aNew York :$cColumbia University Press,$d[2021] 215 $a1 online resource (xviii, 347 pages) $cillustrations 311 08$aPrint version: Clayton, Aubrey. Bernoulli's fallacy New York : Columbia University Press, 2021. 9780231199940 (DLC) 2021004250 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references and index. 327 $tIntroduction --$t1. What is probability? --$t2. The titular fallacy --$t3. Adolphe quetelet's bell curve bridge --$t4. The frequentist jihad --$t5. The quote-unquote logic of orthodox statistics --$t6. The replication crisis/opportunity --$t7. The way out. 330 $a"There is a logical flaw in the statistical methods used across experimental science. This fault is not just a minor academic quibble: it underlies a reproducibility crisis now threatening entire disciplines. In an increasingly data-reliant culture, this same deeply rooted error shapes decisions in medicine, law, and public policy with profound consequences. The foundation of the problem is a misunderstanding of probability and our ability to make inferences from data. Aubrey Clayton traces the history of how statistics went astray, beginning with the groundbreaking work of the seventeenth-century mathematician Jacob Bernoulli and winding through gambling, astronomy, and genetics. He recounts the feuds among rival schools of statistics, exploring the surprisingly human problems that gave rise to the discipline and the all-too-human shortcomings that derailed it. Clayton highlights how influential nineteenth- and twentieth-century figures developed a statistical methodology they claimed was purely objective in order to silence critics of their political agendas, including eugenics. Clayton provides a clear account of the mathematics and logic of probability, conveying complex concepts accessibly for readers interested in the statistical methods that frame our understanding of the world. He contends that we need to take a Bayesian approach-incorporating prior knowledge when reasoning with incomplete information-in order to resolve the crisis. Ranging across math, philosophy, and culture, Bernoulli's Fallacy explains why something has gone wrong with how we use data-and how to fix it"--$cProvided by publisher. 606 $aProbabilities$xPhilosophy$y19th century 606 $aProbabilities$xPhilosophy$y20th century 606 $aMathematical statistics$xPhilosophy 606 $aBinomial distribution 606 $aLaw of large numbers 606 $aMATHEMATICS / History & Philosophy$2bisacsh 606 $aBinomial distribution$2fast$3(OCoLC)fst00831915 606 $aInfluence (Literary, artistic, etc.)$2fast$3(OCoLC)fst00972484 606 $aLaw of large numbers$2fast$3(OCoLC)fst00994048 606 $aMathematical statistics$xPhilosophy$2fast$3(OCoLC)fst01012143 606 $aProbabilities$xPhilosophy$2fast$3(OCoLC)fst01077746 610 $aBayesian statistics. 610 $afrequentist statistics. 610 $ahistory of math. 610 $ahistory of statistics. 610 $aprobability. 610 $areplication crisis. 610 $astatistics and science. 610 $astatistics. 615 0$aProbabilities$xPhilosophy 615 0$aProbabilities$xPhilosophy 615 0$aMathematical statistics$xPhilosophy. 615 0$aBinomial distribution. 615 0$aLaw of large numbers. 615 7$aMATHEMATICS / History & Philosophy 615 7$aBinomial distribution. 615 7$aInfluence (Literary, artistic, etc.) 615 7$aLaw of large numbers. 615 7$aMathematical statistics$xPhilosophy. 615 7$aProbabilities$xPhilosophy. 676 $a519.2 700 $aClayton$b Aubrey$01218357 801 0$bDLC 801 1$bDLC 801 2$bOCLCO 801 2$bOCLCF 801 2$bEBLCP 801 2$bN$T 801 2$bUKAHL 801 2$bYDX 801 2$bJSTOR 801 2$bDEGRU 801 2$bUCW 801 2$bTEFOD 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910554499403321 996 $aBernoulli's fallacy$92817477 997 $aUNINA