LEADER 11225nam 2200517 450 001 9910506394803321 005 20220716072824.0 010 $a3-030-86390-5 035 $a(CKB)5340000000068459 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC6792416 035 $a(Au-PeEL)EBL6792416 035 $a(OCoLC)1280459914 035 $a(PPN)258300728 035 $a(EXLCZ)995340000000068459 100 $a20220716d2021 uy 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aurcnu|||||||| 181 $ctxt$2rdacontent 182 $cc$2rdamedia 183 $acr$2rdacarrier 200 10$aFrequency analyses of natural extreme events $ea spreadsheets approach /$fJose A. Raynal Villasen?or 210 1$aCham, Switzerland :$cSpringer,$d[2021] 210 4$d©2021 215 $a1 online resource (419 pages) 225 1 $aEarth and Environmental Sciences Library 311 $a3-030-86389-1 327 $aIntro -- Preface -- Contents -- 1 Introduction -- 1.1 Introduction -- 1.2 Brief History of Natural Extreme Events -- 1.3 Motivation and Goals -- 1.4 Chapter Outline -- 2 Basic Notions of Probability and Statistics for Natural Extreme Events Frequency Analyses -- 2.1 Introduction -- 2.2 Chapter Objectives -- 2.3 Basic Notions of Theory of Probability -- 2.3.1 Definition of Probability -- 2.3.2 Random Variables -- 2.3.3 Probability Distribution Functions -- 2.3.4 Probability Density Functions -- 2.3.5 Non-exceedance and Exceedance Probabilities -- 2.3.6 Return Period -- 2.4 Basic Notions of Statistics -- 2.4.1 Moments of a Distribution -- 2.4.2 Measures of Central Tendency -- 2.4.3 Measures of Dispersion -- 2.4.4 Measures of Symmetry -- 2.4.5 Measures of Peakedness -- 2.4.6 Descriptive Statistics -- 2.5 Methods for the Estimation of Parameters of Probability Distribution Functions -- 2.5.1 The Method of Moments (MOM) -- 2.5.2 The Method of Maximum Likelihood (ML) -- 2.5.3 The Method of Probability Weighted Moments (PWM) -- 2.6 Quantile Estimation and Frequency Factor -- 2.7 Plotting Position Formulas -- 2.8 Confidence Limits -- 2.9 Standard Errors of Estimates -- 2.9.1 MOM Method -- 2.9.2 ML Method -- 2.9.3 PWM Method -- 2.10 Plotting the Extreme Value Data and Models -- 2.10.1 Normal Probability Paper -- 2.10.2 Gumbel's Probability Paper -- 2.11 Goodness of Fit Tests -- 2.11.1 The Standard Error of Fit -- 2.11.2 The Mean Absolute Relative Deviation -- 2.11.3 The Akaike's Information Criterion -- 2.12 Outliers Tests -- 2.12.1 The Grubbs and Beck Test -- 2.13 Test for Independence and Stationarity -- 2.14 Test for Homogeneity and Stationarity -- 3 Normal Distribution -- 3.1 Introduction -- 3.2 Chapter Objectives -- 3.3 Probability Distribution and Density Functions -- 3.4 Estimation of Parameters -- 3.4.1 MOM Method -- 3.4.2 ML Method. 327 $a3.5 Estimation of Quantiles for the NOR Distribution -- 3.5.1 Examples of Estimation of MOM and ML Quantiles for the NOR Distribution -- 3.6 Goodness of Fit Test -- 3.6.1 Examples of Application of the SEF and MARD to the MOM-ML Estimators of the Parameters of the NOR Distribution -- 3.7 Estimation of the Confidence Limits for the NOR Distribution -- 3.8 Estimation of the Standard Errors for the NOR Distribution -- 3.8.1 MOM Method -- 3.8.2 ML Method -- 3.9 Examples of Application for the NOR Distribution Using Excel® Spreadsheets -- 3.9.1 Flood Frequency Analysis -- 3.9.2 Rainfall Frequency Analysis -- 3.9.3 Wave Height Frequency Analysis -- 3.9.4 Maximum Annual Wind Speed Frequency Analysis -- 4 Two-Parameters Log-Normal Distribution -- 4.1 Introduction -- 4.2 Chapter Objectives -- 4.3 Probability Distribution and Density Functions -- 4.4 Estimation of the Parameters -- 4.4.1 MOM Method -- 4.4.2 ML Method -- 4.5 Estimation of Quantiles for the LN2 Distribution -- 4.5.1 Examples of Estimation of MOM and ML Quantiles for the LN2 Distribution -- 4.6 Goodness of Fit Test -- 4.6.1 Examples of Application of the SEF and MARD to the MOM and ML Estimators of the Parameters of the LN2 Distribution -- 4.7 Estimation of the Confidence Limits for the LN2 Distribution -- 4.8 Estimation of the Standard Errors for the LN2 Distribution -- 4.8.1 MOM Method -- 4.8.2 ML Method -- 4.9 Examples of Application for the LN2 Distribution Using Excel® Spreadsheets -- 4.9.1 Flood Frequency Analysis -- 4.9.2 Rainfall Frequency Analysis -- 4.9.3 Maximum Significant Wave Height Frequency Analysis -- 4.9.4 Annual Maximum Wind Speed Frequency Analysis -- 5 Three-Parameters Log-Normal Distribution -- 5.1 Introduction -- 5.2 Chapter Objectives -- 5.3 Probability Distribution and Density Functions -- 5.4 Estimation of the Parameters -- 5.4.1 MOM Method -- 5.4.2 ML Method. 327 $a5.5 Estimation of Quantiles for the LN3 Distribution -- 5.5.1 Examples of Estimation of MOM Quantiles for the LN3 Distribution -- 5.6 Goodness of Fit Test -- 5.6.1 Examples of Application of the SEF and MARD to the MOM and ML Estimators of the Parameters of the LN3 Distribution -- 5.7 Estimation of the Confidence Limits for the LN3 Distribution -- 5.8 Estimation of the Standard Errors for the LN3 Distribution -- 5.8.1 MOM Method -- 5.8.2 ML Method -- 5.9 Examples of Application for the LN3 Distribution Using Excel® Spreadsheets -- 5.9.1 Flood Frequency Analysis -- 5.9.2 Rainfall Frequency Analysis -- 5.9.3 Maximum Significant Wave Height Frequency Analysis -- 5.9.4 Annual Maximum Wind Speed Frequency Analysis -- 6 Gamma Distribution -- 6.1 Introduction -- 6.2 Chapter Objectives -- 6.3 Probability Distribution and Density Functions -- 6.4 Estimation of the Parameters -- 6.4.1 MOM Method -- 6.4.2 ML Method -- 6.5 Estimation of Quantiles for the GAM Distribution -- 6.5.1 Examples of Estimation of MOM and ML Quantiles for the GAM Distribution -- 6.6 Goodness of Fit Test -- 6.6.1 Examples of Application of the SEF and MARD to the MOM and ML Estimators of the Parameters of the GAM Distribution -- 6.7 Estimation of Confidence Limits for the GAM Distribution -- 6.8 Estimation of Standard Errors for the GAM Distribution -- 6.8.1 MOM Method -- 6.8.2 ML Method -- 6.9 Examples of Application for the GAM Distribution Using Excel® Spreadsheets -- 6.9.1 Flood Frequency Analysis -- 6.9.2 Rainfall Frequency Analysis -- 6.9.3 Maximum Significant Wave Height Frequency Analysis -- 6.9.4 Annual Maximum Wind Speed Frequency Analysis -- 7 Pearson Type III Distribution -- 7.1 Introduction -- 7.2 Chapter Objectives -- 7.3 Probability Distribution and Density Functions -- 7.4 Estimation of the Parameters -- 7.4.1 MOM Method -- 7.4.2 ML Method. 327 $a7.5 Estimation of Quantiles for the PIII Distribution -- 7.5.1 Examples of Estimation of MOM and ML Quantiles for the PIII Distribution -- 7.6 Goodness of Fit Test -- 7.6.1 Examples of Application of the SEF and MARD to the MOM and ML Estimators of the Parameters of the PIII Distribution -- 7.7 Estimation of Confidence Limits for the PIII Distribution -- 7.8 Estimation of Standard Errors for the PIII Distribution -- 7.8.1 MOM Method -- 7.8.2 ML Method -- 7.9 Examples of Application for the PIII Distribution Using Excel® Spreadsheets -- 7.9.1 Flood Frequency Analysis -- 7.9.2 Rainfall Frequency Analysis -- 7.9.3 Maximum Significant Wave Height Frequency Analysis -- 7.9.4 Annual Maximum Wind Speed Frequency Analysis -- 8 Log-Pearson Type III Distribution -- 8.1 Introduction -- 8.2 Chapter Objectives -- 8.3 Probability Distribution and Density Functions -- 8.4 Estimation of the Parameters -- 8.4.1 MOM Method -- 8.4.2 ML Method -- 8.5 Estimation of Quantiles for the LPIII Distribution -- 8.5.1 Estimation of MOM1, MOM2 and ML Quantiles for the LPIII Distribution -- 8.5.2 Estimation of WRC Quantiles for the LPIII Distribution -- 8.5.3 Examples of Estimation of MOM1, MOM2, WRC and ML Quantiles for the LPIII Distribution -- 8.6 Goodness of Fit Test -- 8.6.1 Examples of Application of the SEF and MARD to the MOM1, WRC and ML Estimators of the Parameters of the LPIII Distribution -- 8.7 Estimation of Confidence Limits for the LPIII Distribution -- 8.7.1 Estimation of Confidence Limits for the LPIII Distribution for MOM1, MOM2, and ML Methods -- 8.7.2 Estimation of Confidence Limits for the LPIII Distribution for WRC Method -- 8.8 Estimation of Standard Errors for the LPIII Distribution -- 8.8.1 MOM Method -- 8.8.2 ML Method -- 8.9 Examples of Application for the LPIII Distribution Using Excel® Spreadsheets -- 8.9.1 Flood Frequency Analysis. 327 $a8.9.2 Rainfall Frequency Analysis -- 8.9.3 Maximum Significant Wave Height Frequency Analysis -- 8.9.4 Annual Maximum Wind Speed Frequency Analysis -- 9 Extreme Value Type I Distribution -- 9.1 Introduction -- 9.2 Chapter Objectives -- 9.3 Probability Distribution and Density Functions -- 9.4 Estimation of the Parameters -- 9.4.1 MOM Method -- 9.4.2 ML Method -- 9.4.3 PWM Method -- 9.5 Estimation of Quantiles for the EVI Distribution -- 9.5.1 Examples of Estimation of MOM, ML and PWM Quantiles for the EVI Distribution -- 9.6 Goodness of Fit Test -- 9.6.1 Examples of Application of the SEF and MARD to the MOM, ML and PWM Estimators of the Parameters of the EVI Distribution -- 9.7 Estimation of Confidence Limits for the EVI Distribution -- 9.8 Estimation of Standard Errors for the EVI Distribution -- 9.8.1 MOM Method -- 9.8.2 ML Method -- 9.8.3 PWM Method -- 9.9 Examples of Application for the EVI Distribution Using Excel® Spreadsheets -- 9.9.1 Flood Frequency Analysis -- 9.9.2 Rainfall Frequency Analysis -- 9.9.3 Maximum Significant Wave Height Frequency Analysis -- 9.9.4 Annual Maximum Wind Speed Frequency Analysis -- 10 General Extreme Value Distribution -- 10.1 Introduction -- 10.2 Chapter Objectives -- 10.3 Probability Distribution and Density Functions -- 10.4 Estimation of the Parameters -- 10.4.1 MOM Method -- 10.4.2 ML Method -- 10.4.3 PWM Method -- 10.5 Estimation of Quantiles for the GEV Distribution -- 10.5.1 Examples of Estimation of MOM, ML and PWM Quantiles for the GEV Distribution -- 10.6 Goodness of Fit Test -- 10.6.1 Examples of Application of the SEF and MARD to the MOM, ML and PWM Estimators of the Parameters of the GEV Distribution -- 10.7 Estimation of Confidence Limits for the GEV Distribution -- 10.8 Estimation of Standard Errors for the GEV Distribution -- 10.8.1 MOM Method -- 10.8.2 ML Method -- 10.8.3 PWM Method. 327 $a10.9 Examples of Application for the GEV Distribution Using Excel® Spreadsheets. 410 0$aEarth and environmental sciences library. 606 $aNatural disasters$xForecasting 606 $aNatural disasters$xMathematical models 615 0$aNatural disasters$xForecasting. 615 0$aNatural disasters$xMathematical models. 676 $a363.349 700 $aRaynal Villasen?or$b Jose A.$01072474 801 0$bMiAaPQ 801 1$bMiAaPQ 801 2$bMiAaPQ 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910506394803321 996 $aFrequency Analyses of Natural Extreme Events$92568761 997 $aUNINA