LEADER 03449nam 2200649 450 001 9910465760603321 005 20200520144314.0 010 $a1-60649-503-8 035 $a(CKB)3710000000830857 035 $a(BEP)4648346 035 $a(OCoLC)957560168 035 $a(CaBNVSL)swl00406795 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC4648346 035 $a(Au-PeEL)EBL4648346 035 $a(CaPaEBR)ebr11249437 035 $a(CaONFJC)MIL949046 035 $a(OCoLC)958559630 035 $a(EXLCZ)993710000000830857 100 $a20160829d2016 fy 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aurcnu|||||||| 181 $2rdacontent 182 $2rdamedia 183 $2rdacarrier 200 10$aDemand forecasting for managers /$fStephan Kolassa, Enno Siemsen 205 $aFirst edition. 210 1$aNew York, New York (222 East 46th Street, New York, NY 10017) :$cBusiness Expert Press,$d2016. 215 $a1 online resource (158 pages) 225 1 $aSupply and operations management collection,$x2156-8200 311 $a1-60649-502-X 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references (pages 147-153) and index. 327 $aPart 1. Introduction -- 1. Introduction -- 2. Choice under uncertainty -- 3. A simple example -- Part 2. Forecasting basics -- 4. Know your time series -- 5. Time series decomposition -- Part 3. Forecasting models -- 6. Exponential smoothing -- 7. ARIMA models -- 8. Causal models and leading indicators -- 9. Count data and intermittent demands -- 10. Human judgment -- Part 4. Forecasting quality -- 11. Forecast quality measures -- 12. Forecasting competitions -- Part 5. Forecasting organization -- 13. Sales and operations planning -- 14. Forecasting hierarchies -- References -- Index. 330 3 $aMost decisions and plans in a firm require a forecast. Not matching supply with demand can make or break any business, and that is why forecasting is so invaluable. Forecasting can appear as a frightening topic with many arcane equations to master. We therefore start out from the very basics and provide a nontechnical overview of common forecasting techniques as well as organizational aspects of creating a robust forecasting process. We also discuss how to measure forecast accuracy to hold people accountable and guide continuous improvement. This book does not require prior knowledge of higher mathematics, statistics, or operations research. It is designed to serve as a first introduction to the nonexpert, such as a manager overseeing a forecasting group, or an MBA student who needs to be familiar with the broad outlines of forecasting without specializing in it. 410 0$aSupply and operations management collection.$x2156-8200 606 $aBusiness forecasting 608 $aElectronic books. 610 $aforecasting 610 $asales and operations planning 610 $adecision making 610 $aservice levels 610 $astatistics thinking 610 $achoice under uncertainty 610 $aforecast accuracy 610 $aintermittent demand 610 $aforecasting competition 610 $ajudgmental forecasting 615 0$aBusiness forecasting. 676 $a658.40355 700 $aKolassa$b Stephan.$0879801 702 $aSiemsen$b Enno. 801 0$bMiAaPQ 801 1$bMiAaPQ 801 2$bMiAaPQ 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910465760603321 996 $aDemand forecasting for managers$91964641 997 $aUNINA LEADER 03864nam 2200493 450 001 9910796786203321 005 20200923020339.0 010 $a90-04-36258-4 024 7 $a10.1163/9789004362581 035 $a(CKB)4100000002601810 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC5331688 035 $a(OCoLC)1027732735 035 $a(nllekb)BRILL9789004362581 035 $a(Au-PeEL)EBL5331688 035 $a(CaPaEBR)ebr11535364 035 $a(PPN)258835354 035 $a(EXLCZ)994100000002601810 100 $a20180420d2018 uy 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aurcnu|||||||| 181 $ctxt$2rdacontent 182 $cc$2rdamedia 183 $acr$2rdacarrier 200 10$aEphraem der Syrer und Basilios der Grosse, Justinian und Edessa $eDie Begegnung griechischer und syrischer Traditionsautorita?t in der Ephraemvita und der miaphysitisch-chalkedonische Konflikt /$fvon Nestor Kavvadas 210 1$aLeiden ;$aBoston :$cBrill,$d2018. 215 $a1 online resource (214 pages) 225 0 $aSupplements to Vigiliae Christianae, Texts and studies of early Christian life and language,$x0920-623X ;$vVolume 146 311 $a90-04-36185-5 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references and index. 327 $aFront Matter -- Copyright Page -- Vorwort -- Die syrische Ephraemvita im Kontext -- Ephraem der Syrer und Basilios der Große -- Ephraemvita und Zeitgeschichte: Edessa im miaphysitisch-chalkedonischen Konflikt der Zeit Justinians -- Schlussbemerkungen -- Back Matter -- Literaturverzeichnis -- Index. 330 $aIn Ephraem der Syrer und Basilios der Große, Justinian und Edessa untersucht Nestor Kavvadas die syrische Vita des Heiligen Ephraem, die in Edessa zum Höhepunkt des Konflikts zwischen der syrischen miaphysitischen Bewegung und der pro-chalkedonischen Kirchenpolitik Justinians komponiert wurde, und vergleicht sie mit einigen früheren griechisch-kappadokischen Hagiographien um Ephraem und Basilios von Caesarea, der in Ephraems Vita gleichsam als dessen Patron erscheint. Der Autor zeigt, dass während diese griechischen Hagiographien dazu bestimmt waren, Ephraem als Vater der chalkedonischen, byzantinischen orthodoxen Kirche zu reklamieren, die edessenische Ephraemvita Teil eines Versuchs der syrischen miaphysitischen Bewegung war, Exklusivrecht auf Ephraem sowie Basilios, und damit auf das Erbe der Kirchenväter, zu beanspruchen. Dann stellt der Autor heraus, wie die Ephraemvita, einmal ?entschlüsselt?, ihr historisches Umfeld in ein neues Licht stellen kann. In Ephrem der Syrer und Basilios der Große, Justinian und Edessa , Nestor Kavvadas examines the Syriac ?Life? of Saint Ephrem, composed in Edessa at the time when the Syriac Miaphysite movement was opposing Justinian?s pro-Chalcedonian politics, and compares it with several earlier Greek Cappadocian hagiographies about Ephrem and Basil of Caesarea, who is presented almost as Ephrem?s patron in the latter?s ?Life?. The author shows that while the Greek hagiographies were meant to (re)claim Ephrem as a Father of the (Chalcedonian) Byzantine Orthodox Church, Ephrem?s Syriac ?Life? was part of an attempt by the Syriac Miaphysite movement to claim exclusive rights on both Ephrem and Basil as representatives of the entire legacy of the Church Fathers. Then, the author points out how the ?Life?, once de-coded, can in turn shed light on its historical setting. 410 0$aVigiliae Christianae, Supplements$v146. 606 $aMonophysites 607 $aS?anl?urfa (Turkey)$xHistory 615 0$aMonophysites. 676 $a270.2092 700 $aKavvadas$b Nestor$0610219 801 0$bMiAaPQ 801 1$bMiAaPQ 801 2$bMiAaPQ 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910796786203321 996 $aEphraem der Syrer und Basilios der Grosse, Justinian und Edessa$93845928 997 $aUNINA