LEADER 03449nam 2200649 450 001 9910465760603321 005 20200520144314.0 010 $a1-60649-503-8 035 $a(CKB)3710000000830857 035 $a(BEP)4648346 035 $a(OCoLC)957560168 035 $a(CaBNVSL)swl00406795 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC4648346 035 $a(Au-PeEL)EBL4648346 035 $a(CaPaEBR)ebr11249437 035 $a(CaONFJC)MIL949046 035 $a(OCoLC)958559630 035 $a(EXLCZ)993710000000830857 100 $a20160829d2016 fy 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aurcnu|||||||| 181 $2rdacontent 182 $2rdamedia 183 $2rdacarrier 200 10$aDemand forecasting for managers /$fStephan Kolassa, Enno Siemsen 205 $aFirst edition. 210 1$aNew York, New York (222 East 46th Street, New York, NY 10017) :$cBusiness Expert Press,$d2016. 215 $a1 online resource (158 pages) 225 1 $aSupply and operations management collection,$x2156-8200 311 $a1-60649-502-X 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references (pages 147-153) and index. 327 $aPart 1. Introduction -- 1. Introduction -- 2. Choice under uncertainty -- 3. A simple example -- Part 2. Forecasting basics -- 4. Know your time series -- 5. Time series decomposition -- Part 3. Forecasting models -- 6. Exponential smoothing -- 7. ARIMA models -- 8. Causal models and leading indicators -- 9. Count data and intermittent demands -- 10. Human judgment -- Part 4. Forecasting quality -- 11. Forecast quality measures -- 12. Forecasting competitions -- Part 5. Forecasting organization -- 13. Sales and operations planning -- 14. Forecasting hierarchies -- References -- Index. 330 3 $aMost decisions and plans in a firm require a forecast. Not matching supply with demand can make or break any business, and that is why forecasting is so invaluable. Forecasting can appear as a frightening topic with many arcane equations to master. We therefore start out from the very basics and provide a nontechnical overview of common forecasting techniques as well as organizational aspects of creating a robust forecasting process. We also discuss how to measure forecast accuracy to hold people accountable and guide continuous improvement. This book does not require prior knowledge of higher mathematics, statistics, or operations research. It is designed to serve as a first introduction to the nonexpert, such as a manager overseeing a forecasting group, or an MBA student who needs to be familiar with the broad outlines of forecasting without specializing in it. 410 0$aSupply and operations management collection.$x2156-8200 606 $aBusiness forecasting 608 $aElectronic books. 610 $aforecasting 610 $asales and operations planning 610 $adecision making 610 $aservice levels 610 $astatistics thinking 610 $achoice under uncertainty 610 $aforecast accuracy 610 $aintermittent demand 610 $aforecasting competition 610 $ajudgmental forecasting 615 0$aBusiness forecasting. 676 $a658.40355 700 $aKolassa$b Stephan.$0879801 702 $aSiemsen$b Enno. 801 0$bMiAaPQ 801 1$bMiAaPQ 801 2$bMiAaPQ 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910465760603321 996 $aDemand forecasting for managers$91964641 997 $aUNINA LEADER 01045nas 2200349- 450 001 9910559799103321 005 20220909213015.0 011 $a2658-185X 035 $a(OCoLC)1315943369 035 $a(CKB)4100000011793341 035 $a(CONSER)--2022233112 035 $a(DE-599)ZDB3056192-9 035 $a(EXLCZ)994100000011793341 100 $a20220426a20199999 o-- - 101 0 $apol 135 $aur||||||||||| 181 $ctxt$2rdacontent 182 $cc$2rdamedia 183 $acr$2rdacarrier 200 00$aFabrica litterarum Polono-Italica 210 1$aKatowice :$cWydawnictwo Uniwersytetu ?laskiego,$d2019- 215 $a1 online resource 517 1 $aPolono-Italica Fabrica litterarum 606 $aPolish philology$vPeriodicals 606 $aItalian philology$vPeriodicals 615 0$aPolish philology 615 0$aItalian philology 712 02$aUniwersytet S?la?ski w Katowicach, 906 $aJOURNAL 912 $a9910559799103321 996 $aFabrica litterarum Polono-Italica$92833516 997 $aUNINA