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035   $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000940757
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101 0 $aeng
135   $aur|n|---|||||
181   $ctxt
182   $cc
183   $acr
200 10$aEvaluating Historical CGER Assessments$b[electronic resource]
210   $aWashington $cInternational Monetary Fund$d2009
215   $a1 online resource (29 p.)
225 0 $aIMF Working Papers
300   $aDescription based upon print version of record.
311   $a1-4519-1615-9 
327   $aContents; I. Introduction; Box; 1. An Overview of CGER Exchange Rate Assessment Methodologies; II. Evaluating Misalignment Assessments for Advanced Economies; A. Mean Prediction Error; Figures; 1. Mean Prediction Error; B. Panel Regressions; Tables; 1. Panel Regression Results using Midpoint of CGER Assessment; 2. Panel Regression Results using MB Misalignment Estimate; C. Individual Country Diagnostics; 3. Evaluation Diagnostics using MB Estimates; 2. Scatterplots of Realized vs. Predicted Changes in REER; D. Evaluating Current Account Movements; 4. Panel Regression Results using CA Norm
327   $aIII. Cross-Section Analysis of the Fall 2006 CGER Estimates5. Country Coverage of the Expanded CGER Exercise.; 3. Undconditional Scatterplots, 27 CGER Countries; 6. Regression Results using Midpoint of CGER Assessment; 4. Conditional Scatterplots using Midpoint of CGER Assessment; 7. Regression Results using Individual CGER Methodologies; IV. Conclusion; 8. Regression Results using Midpoint of CGER Assessment, Different Horizons.......; References; Appendices; 1. Pooled Regression Results; 2. Description of Diagnostic Statistics.; 3. Data Appendix
330   $aThe IMF's Consultative Group on Exchange Rate issues (CGER) has been conducting exchange rate assessments as part of the surveillance process since 1997. This paper evaluates CGER assessments from 1997 to 2006, by comparing these to subsequent movements in real effective exchange rates (REER). We find that CGER's estimated misalignments have predictive power over future REER movements, especially over longer horizons and after changes in fundamentals are accounted for. But while CGER misalignments frequently predict the direction of currency movements correctly, misalignments have tended to be
410  0$aIMF Working Papers
606   $aForeign exchange rates -- Mathematical models
606   $aForeign exchange
606   $aMonetary policy -- Mathematical models
606   $aFinance$2HILCC
606   $aBusiness & Economics$2HILCC
606   $aInternational Finance$2HILCC
608   $aElectronic books.
615  4$aForeign exchange rates -- Mathematical models.
615  4$aForeign exchange.
615  4$aMonetary policy -- Mathematical models.
615  7$aFinance
615  7$aBusiness & Economics
615  7$aInternational Finance
676   $a339.267
700   $aLee$b Jungjin$01035547
701   $aAbiad$b Abdul$0976405
701   $aKannan$b Prakash$0876248
801  0$bAU-PeEL
801  1$bAU-PeEL
801  2$bAU-PeEL
906   $aBOOK
912   $a9910464235003321
996   $aEvaluating Historical CGER Assessments$92455298
997   $aUNINA