LEADER 03686nam  2200649   450 
001 9910464021503321
005 20170815101930.0
010   $a1-4623-1140-7
010   $a1-4527-0065-6
010   $a1-4518-6958-4
010   $a1-282-84052-5
010   $a9786612840524
035   $a(CKB)3170000000055007
035   $a(EBL)1607844
035   $a(SSID)ssj0000943960
035   $a(PQKBManifestationID)11473539
035   $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000943960
035   $a(PQKBWorkID)10977706
035   $a(PQKB)11696012
035   $a(OCoLC)815738059
035   $a(MiAaPQ)EBC1607844
035   $a(EXLCZ)993170000000055007
100   $a20140227h20082008  uy             0
101 0 $aeng
135   $aur|n|---|||||
181   $ctxt
182   $cc
183   $acr
200 12$aA simple stochastic approach to debt sustainability applied to Lebanon /$fJulian di Giovanni and Edward Gardner
210  1$a[Washington, District of Columbia] :$cInternational Monetary Fund,$d2008.
210  4$dİ2008
215   $a1 online resource (25 p.)
225 1 $aIMF Working Papers
225  0$aIMF working paper ;$vWP/08/97
300   $aDescription based upon print version of record.
311   $a1-4519-1412-1 
320   $aIncludes bibliographical references.
327   $aContents; I. Introduction; II. Lebanon's Debt Dynamics; III. Methodology; Tables; 1. Standard Deviation of Changes in Monthly Real Short-Term Interest Rates, 1998-2007; A. Construction of the Variance-Covariance Matrix of Shocks; B. Monte Carlo Simulation; IV. Simulation Results; A. Summary Statistics and Simulation Distributions; 2. Standard Deviation of Shocks, 1998-2007; 3. Correlation Matrix of Shocks; Figures; 1a. Distribution of Simulated Values of Real GDP Growth Rate (g): 2008-12; 1b. Distribution of Simulated Values of Effective Interest Rate (r): Temporary Shocks, 2008 -12
327   $a1c. Distribution of Simulated Values of Effective Interest Rate (r): Permanent Shocks, 2008-121d. Distribution of Simulated Values of Debt-to-GDP Ratio (d): Temporary Shocks, 2008-12; 1e. Distribution of Simulated Values of Debt-to-GDP Ratio (d): Permanent Shocks, 2008-12; B. Fan Charts; 2a. Scenario's Debt-to-GDP Ratio Fan Chart: Temporary Shocks, 2007-12; V. Conclusion; 2b. Scenario's Debt-to-GDP Ratio Fan Chart: Permanent Shocks, 2007-12; Appendix; References
330   $aThis paper applies a simple probabilistic approach to debt sustainability analysis to the case of Lebanon. The paper derives ""fan charts"" to depict the probability distribution of the government debt to GDP ratio under a medium-term adjustment scenario, as a result of shocks to GDP growth and interest rates. The distribution of shocks is derived from the past shocks to these variables and the related variance covariance. Because we are interested in assessing the sustainability of a particular policy scenario, we do not consider independent fiscal policy shocks or the endogenous policy respo
410  0$aIMF Working Papers
606   $aDebts, Public$zLebanon$xEconometric models
606   $aFiscal policy$zLebanon$xEconometric models
607   $aLebanon$xEconomic conditions$xEconometric models
608   $aElectronic books.
615  0$aDebts, Public$xEconometric models.
615  0$aFiscal policy$xEconometric models.
676   $a336.34
700   $aDi Giovanni$b Julian$0936634
701   $aGardner$b Edward$0999096
801  0$bMiAaPQ
801  1$bMiAaPQ
801  2$bMiAaPQ
906   $aBOOK
912   $a9910464021503321
996   $aA simple stochastic approach to debt sustainability applied to Lebanon$92292189
997   $aUNINA