LEADER 03443nam 2200613Ia 450 001 9910464014403321 005 20180828010647.0 010 $a1-4623-9310-1 010 $a1-4527-1374-X 010 $a1-4518-7250-X 010 $a1-282-84318-4 010 $a9786612843181 035 $a(CKB)3170000000055264 035 $a(EBL)1608293 035 $a(SSID)ssj0000939925 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11600605 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000939925 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)10938812 035 $a(PQKB)10476928 035 $a(OCoLC)645458446 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC1608293 035 $a(EXLCZ)993170000000055264 100 $a20041202d2009 uf 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aurcn||||||||| 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 14$aThe persistence of capital account crises$b[electronic resource] /$fprepared by Mauro Macagni, Ruben Atoyan, David Hofman 210 $a[Washington D.C.] $cInternational Monetary Fund$d2009 215 $a1 online resource (29 p.) 225 1 $aIMF working paper ;$vWP/09/103 300 $aDescription based upon print version of record. 311 $a1-4519-1680-9 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references. 327 $aContents; I. Introduction; II. Conceptual Framework and Methodology; A. Crisis Persistence, Complexity, and Macroeconomic Effects; Figures; 1. Average Duration and Crisis Complexity; Tables; 1. Duration and Nature of Crises; 2. Crisis Complexity, Duration, and Macroeconomic Costs; B. Determinants of the Duration of Crises; 3. Post-Crisis Vulnerabilities; C. Econometric Methodology; III. Persistence of Capital Account Crises; A. Estimation Results and Robustness Tests; 2. Estimation Results for the Capital Account Crises Duration Model; Boxes; 1. Some Further Diagnostic Results 327 $aB. Counterfactual Experiments 3. Descriptive Statistics for the Model Variables; 4. Predicted Probabilities of Staying in Crisis under Different Scenarios; 5. Increase in Predicted Probability of Exit from Crisis under Various Scenarios; 6. Reduction in Predicted Crisis Duration under Various Scenarios; IV. Conclusions; Appendices; 1. Measuring the Duration of Capital Account Crises; 2. A Model for the Duration of Capital Account Crises; References 330 $aThis study contributes to the literature on capital account crises in two ways. First, our analysis of crisis episodes between 1994 and 2002 establishes a clear relationship between the persistence of crises, their complexity, and the intensity of movement of key macroeconomic variables. Second, we provide a systematic examination of the determinants of crisis duration. Our econometric analysis suggests that initial conditions and the external environment plays a key role in determining crisis persistence. The policy response also matters, but cannot offset a record of poor past policies. Over 410 0$aIMF working paper ;$vWP/09/103. 606 $aCapital movements 606 $aFinancial crises 608 $aElectronic books. 615 0$aCapital movements. 615 0$aFinancial crises. 700 $aMacagni$b Mauro$0936720 701 $aAtoyan$b Ruben$0855108 701 $aHofman$b David$0936721 801 0$bMiAaPQ 801 1$bMiAaPQ 801 2$bMiAaPQ 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910464014403321 996 $aThe persistence of capital account crises$92109837 997 $aUNINA