LEADER 04402nam 2200613Ia 450 001 9910464000103321 005 20200414065115.0 010 $a1-4623-0330-7 010 $a1-4527-3089-X 010 $a1-4518-7272-0 010 $a1-282-84339-7 010 $a9786612843396 035 $a(CKB)3170000000055277 035 $a(EBL)1608318 035 $a(SSID)ssj0000940110 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11518982 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000940110 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)10946574 035 $a(PQKB)11752652 035 $a(OCoLC)586097883 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC1608318 035 $a(EXLCZ)993170000000055277 100 $a20041202d2009 uf 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aurcn||||||||| 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 10$aDecoupling from the East toward the West?$b[electronic resource] $eanalyses of spillovers to the Baltic countries /$fprepared by Kingsley I. Obiora 210 $a[Washington D.C.] $cInternational Monetary Fund$d2009 215 $a1 online resource (40 p.) 225 1 $aIMF working paper ;$vWP/09/125 300 $aDescription based upon print version of record. 311 $a1-4519-1701-5 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references. 327 $aContents; I. Introduction; II. The 1998 Russian Crisis; Figures; 1. The Baltic Countries: Responses of Aggregate Demand Components to 1998 Russian Crisis (year-on-year change, in percent); III. Trade and Financial Linkages; 2. The Baltics: Exports and Imports of Goods and Services (in percent of total, 1994-2007); Tables; 1. The Baltics: Sources and Destination of Foreign Direct Investment (in percent of total, 2007); 3 Baltic Countries: Business Cycle Synchronization with Major Trading Partners; IV. Econometric Analysis; A. Vector Auto regression Models 327 $a2. Variance Decomposition for Baltic Countries' Real GDP (Base VAR Models)4. Baltic Countries: GDP Growth Responses to 1 Percent Shocks from Major Trading Partners and Real Effective Exchange Rate; B. Extended Vector Auto regression Models; 3. Variance Decomposition for Baltic Countries' Real GDP (Extended VAR Models); 5. Baltic Countries: GDP Growth Responses to 1 Percent Shocks from Major Trading Partners, Oil Price Growth and REER; V. Measuring the Channels of Spillovers; 6. The Baltic Countries: Contributions to Spillovers from EU Countries 327 $a7. The Baltic Countries: Contributions to Spillovers from Russia 8. The Baltic Countries: Contributions to Spillovers from the Scandinavian Region; VI. Conclusions and Lessons for Policy; References; Data Description; Appendices; Tables; A1. The Baltic Countries: Direction of Imports to Major Trading Partners (in percent of total); A2. Structure of Bank Ownership in the Baltic Countries; A3. Results of Unit Root Tests Using the Ng-Perron Procedure; A4. Variance Decomposition Results (Base VAR Models, 1996-2007); A5. Variance Decomposition Results (Extended VAR Models, 1996-2007); Figures 327 $aA1. The Baltic Countries: Decomposition of Exports and Imports (in percent of GDP, 1993-2007) A2. Impulse Response Results (Base VAR Models, 1996-2007); A3. Impulse Response Results (Extended VAR Models, 1996-2007); A4. The Baltics: Responses to 1 Percent Shock from the Scandinavian Region 330 $aThis paper uses VAR models to examine the magnitude and sources of growth spillovers to the Baltics from key trading partners, as well as from the real effective exchange rate (REER). Our results show there are significant cross-country spillovers to the Baltics with those from the EU outweighing spillovers from Russia. Shocks to the REER generally depress growth in the Baltics, and this intensifies over time. We also find that financial and trade channels dominate the transmission of spillovers to the region which partly explains the realization of downside risks to the Baltics from the global 410 0$aIMF working paper ;$vWP/09/125. 606 $aEconometric models$zBaltic States 606 $aEconomics$zBaltic States 608 $aElectronic books. 615 0$aEconometric models 615 0$aEconomics 700 $aObiora$b Kingsley$0924145 801 0$bMiAaPQ 801 1$bMiAaPQ 801 2$bMiAaPQ 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910464000103321 996 $aDecoupling from the East toward the West$92073990 997 $aUNINA