LEADER 04228nam 2200625Ia 450 001 9910463996603321 005 20170817212601.0 010 $a1-4623-3965-4 010 $a1-4527-8339-X 010 $a1-4518-7001-9 010 $a9786612840944 010 $a1-282-84094-0 035 $a(CKB)3170000000054998 035 $a(EBL)1607835 035 $a(SSID)ssj0000941188 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11545404 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000941188 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)10975368 035 $a(PQKB)11211956 035 $a(OCoLC)535147026 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC1607835 035 $a(EXLCZ)993170000000054998 100 $a20760721d2008 uy 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aur|n|---||||| 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 10$aGlobal business cycles$b[electronic resource] $econvergence or decoupling? /$fM. Ayhan Kose, Christopher Otrok, and Eswar S. Prasad 210 $aWashington, D.C. $cInternational Monetary Fund$d2008 215 $a1 online resource (51 p.) 225 1 $aIMF working paper ;$v8/143 300 $aDescription based upon print version of record. 311 $a1-4519-1454-7 327 $aContents; I. Introduction; II. Methodology and Data; A. A Dynamic Factor Model; B. Advantages of Dynamic Factor Models; C. Variance Decompositions; D. Data; III. Dynamic Factors and Episodes of Business Cycles; A. Evolution of the Global and Group-Specific Factors; B. Country Factors and Domestic Economic Activity; IV. Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations: 1960-2005; A. Common Cycles: Global and Country-Specific Factors; B. National Cycles: Country and Idiosyncratic Factors; C. Summary; V. Globalization and the Evolution of International Business Cycles; A. Convergence or Decoupling? 327 $aB. Consumption ComovementC. Dynamics of Investment; D. Summary; VI. Sensitivity Experiments; A. Results for Sub-groups of Countries; B. Changes in the Importance of Global and Group Factors; C. Implications of Crises; D. Alternative Breakpoints; VII. Conclusion; References; Appendices; I. A Bayesian Approach to Estimating Dynamic Factor Models; II. Testing for Structural Breaks; III. List of Countries; Tables; 1. Variance Decompositions-All Groups; 2. Variance Decompositions-Industrial Country Subsamples; 3. Variance Decompositions-All Groups 327 $a4. Variance Decompositions-Industrial Country Subsamples5. Variance Decompositions-Emerging Economy Subsamples; 6. Variance Decompositions-Other Developing Economy Subsamples; Figures; 1. Global and Group-Specific Factors; 2. Output Growth and Estimated Factors for Selected Countries; 3. Average Variance Explained by the Global and Group Factors; 4. Average Variance Explained by Global and Group Factors; 5. Average Variance Explained by Global Factor; 6. Average Variance Explained by Group Specific Factors; 7. Average Variance Explained by Global and Group-Specific Factors-All Countries 327 $a8. Output Variance Explained by Global Factor9. Output Variance Explained by Group Factor 330 $aThis paper analyzes the evolution of the degree of global cyclical interdependence over the period 1960-2005. We categorize the 106 countries in our sample into three groups-industrial countries, emerging markets, and other developing economies. Using a dynamic factor model, we then decompose macroeconomic fluctuations in key macroeconomic aggregates-output, consumption, and investment-into different factors. These are: (i) a global factor, which picks up fluctuations that are common across all variables and countries; (ii) three group-specific factors, which capture fluctuations that are comm 410 0$aIMF working paper ;$v8/143. 606 $aBusiness cycles$xEconometric models 606 $aGlobalization 608 $aElectronic books. 615 0$aBusiness cycles$xEconometric models. 615 0$aGlobalization. 700 $aKose$b M. Ayhan$0874352 701 $aOtrok$b Christopher$0970123 701 $aPrasad$b Eswar$0124415 801 0$bMiAaPQ 801 1$bMiAaPQ 801 2$bMiAaPQ 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910463996603321 996 $aGlobal business cycles$92205097 997 $aUNINA