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010   $a9786612843891
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100   $a20100421d2009      uf             0
101 0 $aeng
135   $aur|n|---|||||
181   $ctxt
182   $cc
183   $acr
200 10$aIncorporating market information into the construction of the fan chart$b[electronic resource] /$fprepared by Selim Elekdag and Prakash Kannan
210   $a[Washington, D.C.] $cInternational Monetary Fund, Research Dept.$d2009
215   $a1 online resource (23 p.)
225 1 $aIMF working paper ;$vWP/09/178
300   $a"August 2009."
311   $a1-4519-1751-1 
327   $aContents; I. Introduction; II. Outline of Theory; A. Characterizing the Distribution of Global Growth; Box; 1. The Two-Piece Normal Distribution; B. Constructing Confidence Intervals; III. Using Survey- and Market-Based Information; Figures; 1. Constructing Confidence Intervals; A. Survey-based Measures; B. Market-based Measures; IV. An Example: Forecasting Global Growth; A. Choice of Risk Factors; Tables; 1. Estimated Elasticities and Skewness Coefficients; B. Estimating the Weighting Parameters .; C. Constructing the Fan Chart; D. Interpreting the Results
327   $a2. Dispersion of Forecasts for GDP and Selected Risk FactorsV. Conclusions; 3. Fan Chart for Global Growth and Skewness of Risk Factors; 4. Fan Chart for Global Growth Based on Direct Estimates of Variance and Skew; References
330   $aThis paper develops a simple procedure for incorporating market-based information into the construction of fan charts. Using the International Monetary Fund (IMF)'s global growth forecast as a working example, the paper goes through the theoretical and practical considerations of this new approach. The resulting spreadsheet, which implements the approach, is available upon request from the authors.
410  0$aIMF working paper ;$vWP/09/178.
606   $aEconomic forecasting$xEconometric models
606   $aTime-series analysis
608   $aElectronic books.
615  0$aEconomic forecasting$xEconometric models.
615  0$aTime-series analysis.
676   $a336.54
700   $aElekdag$b Selim$0894667
701   $aKannan$b Prakash$0876248
712 02$aInternational Monetary Fund.$bResearch Dept.
801  0$bMiAaPQ
801  1$bMiAaPQ
801  2$bMiAaPQ
906   $aBOOK
912   $a9910463991403321
996   $aIncorporating market information into the construction of the fan chart$92110723
997   $aUNINA