LEADER 04577nam 2200649 a 450 001 9910463964303321 005 20181112201323.0 010 $a1-4623-9317-9 010 $a1-4527-6930-3 010 $a1-283-51792-2 010 $a1-4519-1021-5 010 $a9786613830371 035 $a(CKB)3360000000443962 035 $a(EBL)1608455 035 $a(SSID)ssj0001474739 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11901034 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0001474739 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)11472494 035 $a(PQKB)11355853 035 $a(OCoLC)535146892 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC1608455 035 $a(EXLCZ)993360000000443962 100 $a20090807d2007 uy 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aurcn||||||||| 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 10$aDebt dynamics and global imbalances$b[electronic resource] $esome conventional views reconsidered /$fprepared by Guy Meredith 210 $a[Washington, D.C.] $cInternational Monetary Fund$d2007 215 $a1 online resource (56 p.) 225 1 $aIMF working paper ;$vWP/07/4 300 $a"January 2007." 311 $a1-4518-6568-6 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references (p. 51-54). 327 $aContents; I. Introduction; II. Stylized Facts; A. Evolution of Global Imbalances; Figures; 1. U.S. External Balances, 1979-2005; 2. Movements in Real U.S. Trade Balance: 1995-2005 Versus 1979-89; 3. U.S. Imports and Exports, 1980-2005; 4. U.S. Real Effective Exchange Rate: 1995-2005 Versus 1979-89; 5. U.S. Shares in World GDP, 1980-2005; 6. Ratio of Real Private Consumption to GDP, 1985-20005; 7. U.S. Net Foreign Assets, 1982-2005; 8. U.S. External Assets and Liabilities, 1982-2005; 9. ROW Holdings of Official Reserves, 1971-2005; B. Real Interest Rates; Tables 327 $a1. U.S. Real Interest Rates and Growth Rates, 1900-200510. Yield on Inflation-Indexed U.S. Treasuries, 1997-2006; 2. Real Returns on U.S. External Assets and Liabilities, 1953-2004; 11. Real Yields on U.S. External Assets and Liabilities, 1977-2005; 12. U.S. Net International Investment Income, 1977-2005; 13. Valuation Adjustments to U.S. NFA, Cumulative Average, 1983-2005; III. Debt Dynamics; 14. Yields on BAA Corporate Bonds Versus U.S. Treasuries, 1953-2006; IV. Simulation Model; A. Structure; B. Parameterization; V. Simulation Results; A. Initial Equilibrium; B. Calibration of Shocks 327 $aC. Baseline Simulation 15. Baseline Shocks to Model, 1995-2025; 16. Baseline Simulation Results, 1995-2025; 17. Baseline Simulation Results, 1995-2100; 18. U.S. Real Growth Rate and Marginal Product of Capital; 19. U.S. and ROW Consumption, 1995-2075; D. Alternative Paths for the Shocks; 20. Larger and More Drawn-Out Shocks, 1995-2100; 21. Phase-Out of International Reserve Accumulation, 1995-2025; 22. "Hard-Landing" Scenario, 1995-2025; E. Alternative Parameter Values; 23. Higher Initial Real Interest Rate, 1995-2100; 25. Alternative Trade Price Elasticities, 1995-2150 327 $a24. Increasing Asset Substitutability, 1995-2100 26. Ratio of U.S. to Row GDP, 1995-2010; 27. Higher Foreign Growth, 1995-2025; F. Fiscal Policy; 28. "Twin Deficits": Effect on Trade Balance of Change in Fiscal Balance; VI. Concluding Remarks; Appendix: Consumption, Wealth and Real Interest Rates; A. Infinite-Horizon Model; B. Finite-Horizon Model; References 330 $aWe use a general-equilibrium model to explain the rise in global trade and payments imbalances since the mid-1990s, and then to construct adjustment paths to a steady state. Assuming that the shocks giving rise to the imbalances do not suddenly reverse, simulated movements in the U.S. trade deficit and exchange rate are smaller and more gradual than suggested by partial-equilibrium analyses. An important factor reducing the size of the adjustments is a simulated real interest rate on U.S. external liabilities that is below both the interest rate on external assets and the U.S. real economic gr 410 0$aIMF working paper ;$vWP/07/4. 606 $aBalance of trade$zUnited States 606 $aDebts, External$zUnited States 608 $aElectronic books. 615 0$aBalance of trade 615 0$aDebts, External 676 $a335.4 676 $a335.4/12 700 $aMeredith$b Guy$0936179 712 02$aInternational Monetary Fund.$bWestern Hemisphere Dept. 801 0$bMiAaPQ 801 1$bMiAaPQ 801 2$bMiAaPQ 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910463964303321 996 $aDebt dynamics and global imbalances$92108915 997 $aUNINA LEADER 00925nas 2200361 c 450 001 9910147288103321 005 20240308151835.0 035 $a(CKB)1000000000527335 035 $a(DE-599)ZDB2407155-9 035 $a(OCoLC)25584965 035 $a(DE-101)987345648 035 $a(EXLCZ)991000000000527335 100 $a20080129b19541956 |y | 101 0 $aita 135 $aur||||||||||| 181 $ctxt$2rdacontent 182 $cc$2rdamedia 183 $acr$2rdacarrier 200 00$a˜L'œ Esperienza poetica$erivista trimestrale di poesia e di critica 210 31$aBari$cCressati$d1954-1956 215 $aOnline-Ressource 608 $aZeitschrift$2gnd-content 676 $a800 676 $a840 676 $a850 676 $a860 801 0$b0001 801 1$bDE-101 801 2$b9999 906 $aJOURNAL 912 $a9910147288103321 996 $aEsperienza poetica$9258159 997 $aUNINA