LEADER 03493nam 2200673 450 001 9910463618503321 005 20170815101946.0 010 $a1-4623-1341-8 010 $a1-4527-4908-6 010 $a1-4518-7024-8 010 $a1-282-84117-3 010 $a9786612841170 035 $a(CKB)3170000000055071 035 $a(EBL)1607942 035 $a(SSID)ssj0001477988 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11892589 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0001477988 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)11453221 035 $a(PQKB)10440308 035 $a(OCoLC)761928073 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC1607942 035 $a(EXLCZ)993170000000055071 100 $a20140227h20082008 uy 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aur|n|---||||| 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 14$aThe information content of money in forecasting euro area inflation /$fHelge Berger and Emil Stavrev ; authorized for distribution by Jo?rg Decressin 210 1$a[Washington, District of Columbia] :$cInternational Monetary Fund,$d2008. 210 4$dİ2008 215 $a1 online resource (31 p.) 225 1 $aIMF Working Papers 225 0$aIMF working paper ;$vWP/08/166 300 $aDescription based upon print version of record. 311 $a1-4519-1477-6 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references. 327 $aContents; I. Introduction; II. Related Literature; III. Models of Inflation; A. DSGE Models; B. Partial Equilibrium Models; C. Empirical Models; IV. Empirical Methods and Data; A. Estimation Techniques; B. Prior Distribution of Parameters for the Bayesian Estimates; C. Forecasting and the Information Content of Money; D. Data; V. Results; A. The Marginal Contribution of Money; Figures; 1. Forecast Performance of DSGE Models; 2. Forecast Performance of Empirical Models; 3. Forecast Performance of P* and Phillips Curve Models; B. Comparison of Money-Based Models; C. Comparison Across All Models 327 $aTables1. Out-of-Sample Forecasting Performance of Models; VI. Conclusions; References; Appendices; I. Empirical Specifications; II. Bayesian Priors 330 $aThis paper contributes to the debate on the role of money in monetary policy by analyzing the information content of money in forecasting euro-area inflation. We compare the predictive performance within and among various classes of structural and empirical models in a consistent framework using Bayesian and other estimation techniques. We find that money contains relevant information for inflation in some model classes. Money-based New Keynesian DSGE models and VARs incorporating money perform better than their cashless counterparts. But there are also indications that the contribution of mon 410 0$aIMF Working Papers 606 $aMonetary policy$xEconometric models 606 $aMoney$xEconometric models 606 $aInflation (Finance)$xForecasting$xEconometric models 608 $aElectronic books. 615 0$aMonetary policy$xEconometric models. 615 0$aMoney$xEconometric models. 615 0$aInflation (Finance)$xForecasting$xEconometric models. 676 $a332.46 700 $aBerger$b Helge$0857877 701 $aStavrev$b Emil$0857610 701 $aDecressin$b Jo?rg$0860299 801 0$bMiAaPQ 801 1$bMiAaPQ 801 2$bMiAaPQ 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910463618503321 996 $aThe information content of money in forecasting euro area inflation$91919622 997 $aUNINA