LEADER 03691nam  2200613Ia 450 
001 9910461973103321
005 20200520144314.0
010   $a1-4755-9375-9
010   $a1-4755-6554-2
035   $a(CKB)2670000000278811
035   $a(EBL)1606993
035   $a(SSID)ssj0000939842
035   $a(PQKBManifestationID)11489722
035   $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000939842
035   $a(PQKBWorkID)10939182
035   $a(PQKB)10432131
035   $a(MiAaPQ)EBC1606993
035   $a(Au-PeEL)EBL1606993
035   $a(CaPaEBR)ebr10627032
035   $a(OCoLC)870245052
035   $a(EXLCZ)992670000000278811
100   $a20111102d2012      uy             0
101 0 $aeng
135   $aur|n|---|||||
181   $ctxt
182   $cc
183   $acr
200 10$aPublic debt dynamics$b[electronic resource] $ethe effects of austerity, inflation, and growth shocks  /$fprepared by Reda Cherif and Fuad Hasanov
210   $aWashington, DC $cInternational Monetary Fund$d2012
215   $a1 online resource (29 p.)
225 0 $aIMF working paper ;$v12/230
300   $aDescription based upon print version of record.
311   $a1-4755-4127-9 
311   $a1-4755-1055-1 
320   $aIncludes bibliographical references.
327   $aCover; Abstract; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Related Literature; III. Empirical Model, Estimation, and Data; A. Empirical Model; B. Estimation and Impulse Responses; C. Data and Descriptive Statistics; IV. Public Debt Dynamics and Impulse Responses; A. Debt Impulse Responses to an Austerity Shock; B. Debt Impulse Responses to Inflation and Growth Shocks; V. Concluding Remarks; References; Tables; 1. Descriptive Statistics; Figures; 1. Evolution of Public Debt (Percent of GDP, 1947:II-2011:III); 2. Debt Impulse Response: The Effect of a One Standard Deviation Primary Surplus Shock
327   $a3. Decomposition of the Debt Impulse Response under the Narrative Identification4. Debt Impulse Responses to a One Standard Deviation Primary Surplus Shock: Average Initial Conditions (Normal Times); 5. Debt Impulse Responses to a One Standard Deviation Primary Surplus Shock: Initial Conditions of 2011; 6. A Recent History and Forecast of the Debt Ratio Based on the Past Dynamics (2011:IV-); 7. Debt Impulse Responses to Macro Shocks and Decomposition: Blanchard-Perotti Identification; A1. A Comparison of VAR Models: Debt Impulse Responses (GIR Identification); Appendix A
327   $aA2. A Comparison of VAR Models: Debt Forecast, Starting 2011:IVA3. A Comparison of VAR Models: Debt Forecast, Starting 2009:III; Appendix B
330   $aWe study how macroeconomic shocks affect U.S. public debt dynamics using a VAR with debt feedback. Following a fiscal austerity shock, the debt ratio initially declines and then returns to its pre-shock path. Yet, the effect is not statistically significant. In a weak economic environment, the likelihood of a self-defeating austerity shock is much higher than in normal times. An inflation shock only slightly reduces the debt ratio for a few quarters. A positive growth shock unambiguously lowers debt. In our specification, the debt ratio is stationary, whereas a VAR excluding debt may imply an 
410  0$aIMF Working Papers
606   $aDebts, Public
606   $aInflation (Finance)
608   $aElectronic books.
615  0$aDebts, Public.
615  0$aInflation (Finance)
700   $aCherif$b Reda$0882104
701   $aHasanov$b Fuad$f1978-$0882105
801  0$bMiAaPQ
801  1$bMiAaPQ
801  2$bMiAaPQ
906   $aBOOK
912   $a9910461973103321
996   $aPublic debt dynamics$91970341
997   $aUNINA