LEADER 05330nam 2200637Ia 450 001 9910461968003321 005 20200520144314.0 010 $a1-4755-9171-3 010 $a1-4755-0774-7 035 $a(CKB)2670000000278807 035 $a(EBL)1606820 035 $a(SSID)ssj0000952569 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11522105 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000952569 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)10907020 035 $a(PQKB)11503972 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC1606820 035 $a(Au-PeEL)EBL1606820 035 $a(CaPaEBR)ebr10627028 035 $a(OCoLC)870245023 035 $a(EXLCZ)992670000000278807 100 $a20111102d2012 uy 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aur|n|---||||| 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 10$aEvolution of debt sustainability analysis in low-income countries$b[electronic resource] $esome aggregate evidence /$fprepared by Benedicte Baduel and Robert Price 210 $aWashington, DC $cInternational Monetary Fund$d2012 215 $a1 online resource (57 p.) 225 0 $aIMF working paper ;$v12/167 300 $aDescription based upon print version of record. 311 $a1-4755-4907-5 311 $a1-4755-0515-9 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references. 327 $aCover; Abstract; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Motivation and Sample; Boxes; 1. The External Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA); Tables; 1. Sample Countries; III. Results; A. Baseline ratios; Figures; 1. Evolution of Baseline Debt Ratios (PV of PPG External Debt), 2006-29; 2. Baseline Peak Average Values by DSA Vintage; 2. Debt-to-GDP: 2010 Baseline Scenario vs. 2006 and 2010 Historical Scenarios, 2006-29; B. Numerators: Trajectories of debt, debt service and financing needs; 3. Debt and Macroeconomic Projections, 2006-29; 4. Financing Needs, 2006-29; C. Changing structures of indebtedness 327 $a5. Debt Accumulation Dynamics, 2006-296. Aid Flows, 2006-29; 7. Average Grant Element in New Disbursements, 2006-29; 8. Aid Flows and Average Grant Element, 2006-29; 9. Average Interest Rate, 2006-29; 10. Nominal GDP Growth-Interest Rate Differentials, 2010-29; 11. Endogenous Debt Dynamics, 2006-29; D. Denominators: adjustments in macroeconomic projections; 12. PV of Debt-to-GDP Ratio: Comparative Analysis of Alternative Scenario of Less Favorable Terms on Public Sector Borrowing, 2006-29; 13. Macroeconomic Forecasts, 2006-29; E. Country-level heterogeneity 327 $a14. External Accounts Forecasts, 2006-293. Evolution of Key Variables in DSAs; IV. Conclusions; Appendixes; Appendix Figures; Figure A1. PV of Debt-to-GDP Ratio, 2006-29 (In percent); Figure A2. PV of Debt-to-Exports Ratio, 2006-29 (In percent); Figure A3. PV of Debt-to-Revenue Ratio, 2006-29 (In percent); Figure A4. Debt Service-to-Exports Ratio, 2006-29 (In percent); Figure A5. Debt Service-to-Revenue Ratio, 2006-29 (In percent); Figure A6. PV of PPG Exernal Debt, 2006-29 (In billions of US); Figure A7. Debt Service, 2006-29 (In billions of US) 327 $aFigure A8. Nominal GDP, 2006-29 (In billions of US)Figure A9. Exports of Goods and Services, 2006-29 (In billions of US); Figure A10. Government Revenue, 2006-29 (in billions of US); Figure A11. Financing Needs, 2006-29 (In billions of US); Figure A12. New Medium and Long Term Disbursements, 2006-29 (In billions of US); Figure A13. Debt Accumulation Rate, 2006-29 (In percent); Figure A14. Nominal Debt and Nominal GDP Growth, 2010-291 (In percent, 2010 DSAs); Figure A15. Aid flow, 2006-29 (In billions of US); Figure A16. Grant Element in New Disbursements, 2006-29 (In percent) 327 $aFigure A17. Nominal Effective Interest Rate, 2006-29 (In percent)Figure A18. Nominal GDP Growth and Nominal Effective Interest Rate, 2010-291 (In percent, 2010 DSAs); Figure A19. Real GDP Growth, 2006-29 (In percent); Figure A20. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), 2006-29 (In billions of US); Figure A21. PV of Debt-to-GDP Ratio under Historical Alternative Scenario, 2006-29 (In percent); Figure A22. PV of Debt-to-GDP Ratio: Baseline vs. Historical Alternative Scenario, 2010-291 (In percent, 2010 DSA) 330 $aThe Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) for low-income countries (LICs) is a standardized analytical tool to monitor debt sustainability. This paper uses DSAs from three periods around the time of the global economic crisis to analyze the projected trajectories of debt ratios for a sample of LICs. The aggregate data suggest that LIC vulnerabilities improved on the whole during the period prior to the crisis, and that the crisis had a strong short-run impact on key ratios of debt (debt-to-GDP, -exports, and -fiscal revenues) and debt service (debt service-to-exports, and -revenues). Although pro 410 0$aIMF Working Papers 606 $aDebts, Public$xMathematical models 606 $aDebts, Public$zDeveloping countries 608 $aElectronic books. 615 0$aDebts, Public$xMathematical models. 615 0$aDebts, Public 700 $aBaduel$b Benedicte$0960466 701 $aPrice$b Robert$0960467 801 0$bMiAaPQ 801 1$bMiAaPQ 801 2$bMiAaPQ 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910461968003321 996 $aEvolution of debt sustainability analysis in low-income countries$92177275 997 $aUNINA