LEADER 04174nam 2200697 450 001 9910460735303321 005 20200121145140.0 010 $a1-317-11799-9 010 $a1-4724-6891-0 010 $a1-4724-6890-2 035 $a(CKB)3710000000498160 035 $a(EBL)4054881 035 $a(OCoLC)929532515 035 $a(SSID)ssj0001570485 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)16219569 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0001570485 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)14118531 035 $a(PQKB)10918323 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC4054881 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC4107692 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC5293074 035 $a(Au-PeEL)EBL4054881 035 $a(CaPaEBR)ebr11117522 035 $a(CaONFJC)MIL882347 035 $a(Au-PeEL)EBL4107692 035 $a(CaPaEBR)ebr11122813 035 $a(Au-PeEL)EBL5293074 035 $a(CaONFJC)MIL924955 035 $a(OCoLC)1027160040 035 $a(EXLCZ)993710000000498160 100 $a20200121h20162015 uy 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aur|n|---||||| 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 10$aIn pursuit of foresight $edisaster incubation theory re-imagined /$fMike Lauder 205 $aFirst edition. 210 1$aLondon ;$aNew York, New York :$cRoutledge,$d2016. 210 4$dİ2015 215 $a1 online resource (243 p.) 300 $aDescription based upon print version of record. 311 $a1-4724-6889-9 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references and index. 327 $aCover; Contents; List of Figures; List of Tables; Acknowledgements; 1 In Appreciation of Barry Turner; Introduction; Aim; Disaster Incubation Theory Described; Disaster Incubation Theory Sta ges; Case Studies; Reshaping Turner's Model; Conclusion; 2 Selecting a Framework for Foresight; Introduction; Selection of a Framework; Approach; Chaos as the Norm; Conclusion; 3 Issues for Foresight; Introduction; Issues of Interest; Universals; Causes; Catalytic Questions; Conclusion; 4 Debate Framework; Introduction; Developing a Catalytic Framework; Generalisation; Intelligent Countermoves 327 $aForesight or HindsightFramework; Conclusion; 5 Lesson to be Learnt; Introduction; Turner's Phenomena; Revised Questions; The "What"; The "How"; Conclusions; 6 Pursuing Foresight; Introduction; Looking Back; Looking Forward; Using the Cube; Conclusion; Epilogue; Bibliography; Index 330 $aMany inquiry reports blame management for their failures of foresight. These reports are based on the premise that, with a little more thought, these oversights, and so the crisis, would have been avoided. Is it really that simple? The important question is whether, without hindsight, it would have even been possible to identify the actual factors that lead to the failure. This book explores this issue as a practical problem. The book takes Barry Turner's Disaster Incubation Theory as its central theme. The first chapter explores the way Turner structured his theory and the way it has been used, before re-imagining it as a way to fostering foresight. The next three chapters examine key issues in detail. They explain why Turner's model was chosen, outline the issues that need to be considered when seeking to prevent such failures and how to use the proposed frameworks. Chapter 5 examines the lessons learnt from this study and, in particular, looks at the mental approach required when seeking such foresight. Finally, Chapter 6 provides a fully worked example. It uses work by Frank Stech who has applied Turner's theory to a past case.Crises occur everywhere and we continue to struggle to avoid them. In this book Mike Lauder provides executives with thinking tools to help them avoid missing the warning signs of their next crisis. 606 $aRisk management 606 $aEmergency management 608 $aElectronic books. 615 0$aRisk management. 615 0$aEmergency management. 676 $a658.4/77 700 $aLauder$b Mike$0862138 801 0$bMiAaPQ 801 1$bMiAaPQ 801 2$bMiAaPQ 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910460735303321 996 $aIn pursuit of foresight$91924531 997 $aUNINA