LEADER 03693nam 22006852 450 001 9910459716103321 005 20151005020622.0 010 $a1-107-21651-6 010 $a1-139-03612-2 010 $a1-283-05456-6 010 $a9786613054562 010 $a0-511-97412-4 010 $a1-139-04158-4 010 $a1-139-04235-1 010 $a1-139-04498-2 010 $a1-139-03844-3 010 $a1-139-04081-2 035 $a(CKB)2670000000077412 035 $a(EBL)674640 035 $a(OCoLC)710974839 035 $a(SSID)ssj0000472498 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11331122 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000472498 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)10435182 035 $a(PQKB)10417023 035 $a(UkCbUP)CR9780511974120 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC674640 035 $a(PPN)162304625 035 $a(Au-PeEL)EBL674640 035 $a(CaPaEBR)ebr10460563 035 $a(CaONFJC)MIL305456 035 $a(EXLCZ)992670000000077412 100 $a20101011d2011|||| uy| 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aur||||||||||| 181 $ctxt$2rdacontent 182 $cc$2rdamedia 183 $acr$2rdacarrier 200 10$aQuantitative risk assessment $ethe scientific platform /$fTerje Aven$b[electronic resource] 210 1$aCambridge :$cCambridge University Press,$d2011. 215 $a1 online resource (xi, 211 pages) $cdigital, PDF file(s) 300 $aTitle from publisher's bibliographic system (viewed on 05 Oct 2015). 311 $a0-521-76057-7 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references and index. 327 $aMachine generated contents note: Preface; 1. Introduction to risk management and risk assessments. Challenges; 2. Concepts and perspectives on risk; 3. Science and scientific requirements; 4. Introduction to case studies; 5. Risk assessment when the objective is accurate risk estimation; 6. Risk assessment when the objective is uncertainty descriptions; 7. Risk management and communication issues; 8. Towards a holistic approach to risk assessments; 9. Conclusions; Appendix A. Introduction to probability theory and statistical analysis; Appendix B. Terminology; References; Index. 330 $aQuantitative risk assessments cannot eliminate risk, nor can they resolve trade-offs. They can, however, guide principled risk management and reduction - if the quality of assessment is high and decision makers understand how to use it. This book builds a unifying scientific framework for discussing and evaluating the quality of risk assessments and whether they are fit for purpose. Uncertainty is a central topic. In practice, uncertainties about inputs are rarely reflected in assessments, with the result that many safety measures are considered unjustified. Other topics include the meaning of a probability, the use of probability models, the use of Bayesian ideas and techniques, and the use of risk assessment in a practical decision-making context. Written for professionals, as well as graduate students and researchers, the book assumes basic probability, statistics and risk assessment methods. Examples make concepts concrete, and three extended case studies show the scientific framework in action. 606 $aProbabilities 606 $aRisk assessment$xStatistical methods 606 $aDecision making$xStatistical methods 615 0$aProbabilities. 615 0$aRisk assessment$xStatistical methods. 615 0$aDecision making$xStatistical methods. 676 $a519.2/87 700 $aAven$b Terje$044036 801 0$bUkCbUP 801 1$bUkCbUP 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910459716103321 996 $aQuantitative risk assessment$91899696 997 $aUNINA