LEADER 03883nam 2200661Ia 450 001 9910453122503321 005 20200520144314.0 010 $a1-61635-702-9 010 $a1-4755-9843-2 010 $a1-283-94779-X 035 $a(CKB)2550000001003744 035 $a(EBL)1607056 035 $a(SSID)ssj0000943222 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11515178 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000943222 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)10977688 035 $a(PQKB)10756566 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC1607056 035 $a(Au-PeEL)EBL1607056 035 $a(CaPaEBR)ebr10644356 035 $a(CaONFJC)MIL426029 035 $a(OCoLC)870245099 035 $a(EXLCZ)992550000001003744 100 $a20130127d2012 uy 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aur|n|---||||| 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 10$aOn the sources and consequences of oil price shocks$b[electronic resource] $ethe role of storage /$fDeren Unalmis, Ibrahim Unalmis, and D. Filiz Unsal 210 $aWashington, D.C. $cInternational Monetary Fund$dc2012 215 $a1 online resource (42 p.) 225 0$aIMF working paper ;$vWP/12/270 300 $aAt head of title: Research Department -- verso of t.p. 300 $a"November 2012"-- verso of t.p. 311 $a1-4755-7356-1 311 $a1-4755-8636-1 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references (p. 22-25). 327 $aCover; Contents; 1. Introduction; 2. The Model; 2.1 Households; 2.2 Firms and Production; 2.3 Monetary and Fiscal Policy; 2.4 Goods Market Equilibrium; 2.5 Storage and Oil Market Equilibrium; 3. Estimation; 3.1 Data; 3.2 Calibrated Parameters; 3.3 Prior Distributions and Estimation Results; 4. Conclusion; References; Appendix; Tables; 1. Calibrated parameters; 2. Prior distributions and posterior estimates (sample period: 1982Q1-2007Q4); 3. Variance decomposition (sample period: 1982Q1-2007Q4); 4. Variance decomposition (sample period: 2000Q1-2007Q4); Figures 327 $a1. Impulse responses to a one standard deviation positive TFP shock2. Impulse responses to a one standard deviation positive labor productivity shock; 3. Impulse responses to a one standard deviation negative oil supply shock; 4. Impulse responses to a one standard deviation storage demand shock; 5. Impulse responses to a one standard deviation positive TFP shock with and without storage; 6. Impulse responses to a one standard deviation positive labor productivity shock with and without storage; 7. Impulse responses to a one standard deviation negative oil supplywith and without storage 330 $aBuilding on recent work on the role of speculation and inventories in oil markets, we embed a competitive oil storage model within a DSGE model of the U.S. economy. This enables us to formally analyze the impact of a (speculative) storage demand shock and to assess how the effects of various demand and supply shocks change in the presence of oil storage facility. We find that business-cycle driven oil demand shocks are the most important drivers of U.S. oil price fluctuations during 1982-2007. Disregarding the storage facility in the model causes a considerable upward bias in the estimated rol 410 0$aIMF Working Papers 606 $aPetroleum products$xPrices$xEconometric models 606 $aPetroleum products$xStorage 608 $aElectronic books. 615 0$aPetroleum products$xPrices$xEconometric models. 615 0$aPetroleum products$xStorage. 700 $aUnalmis$b Deren$0967312 701 $aUnalmis$b Ibrahim$0967313 701 $aUnsal$b D. Filiz$0967314 712 02$aInternational Monetary Fund.$bResearch Dept. 801 0$bMiAaPQ 801 1$bMiAaPQ 801 2$bMiAaPQ 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910453122503321 996 $aOn the sources and consequences of oil price shocks$92195982 997 $aUNINA