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100   $a20121231d2012      uy             0
101 0 $aeng
135   $aur|n|---|||||
181   $ctxt
182   $cc
183   $acr
200 10$aOil and the world economy$b[electronic resource] $esome possible futures /$fMichael Kumhof and Dirk Muir
210   $aWashington, D.C. $cInternational Monetary Fund$d2012
215   $a1 online resource (32 p.)
225  0$aIMF working paper ;$vWP/12/256
300   $aDescription based upon print version of record.
311   $a1-4755-8664-7 
320   $aIncludes bibliographical references.
327   $aCover; Contents; I. Introduction; II. The Model; A. Oil Supply; B. Oil Demand; 1. Baseline Scenario; 2. Growing Elasticity Scenario; 3. Entropy Boundary and Falling Elasticity Scenarios; 4. Technology Externality Scenario; C. World Oil Market Equilibrium; D. Calibration; III. Discussion of the Alternative Specifications; A. Entropy Boundary and Falling Elasticity Scenarios; 1. Supply Limitations; 2. Technical Substitutability; B. Growing Elasticity Scenario; C. Technology Externality Scenario; IV. Simulation Results; A. Baseline Scenario; B. Growing Elasticity Scenario
327   $aC. Entropy Boundary Scenario and Falling Elasticity ScenarioD. Technology Externality Scenario; E. Larger Shock Scenario; F. Combined Downside Scenarios; G. Combined Downside and Growing Elasticity Scenario; H. The Assumption of Unitary Income Elasticity; I. The Assumption of Smooth Reallocation; V. Conclusion; References; Figures; 1. World Crude Oil Production (in million barrels per day); 2. The Entropy Boundary in Factor Space; 3. Baseline Scenario; 4. Growing Elasticity Scenario; 5. Entropy Boundary Scenario; 6. Falling Elasticity Scenario
327   $a7. Technology Externality and Larger Shock Scenarios8. Combined Downside and Growing Elasticity Scenario
330   $aThis paper, using a six-region DSGE model of the world economy, assesses the GDP and current account implications of permanent oil supply shocks hitting the world economy at an unspecified future date. For modest-sized shocks and conventional production technologies the effects are modest. But for larger shocks, for elasticities of substitution that decline as oil usage is reduced to a minimum, and for production functions in which oil acts as a critical enabler of technologies, GDP growth could drop significantly. Also, oil prices could become so high that smooth adjustment, as assumed in the
410  0$aIMF Working Papers
606   $aPetroleum products
606   $aEconomic geography
608   $aElectronic books.
615  0$aPetroleum products.
615  0$aEconomic geography.
700   $aKumhof$b Michael$0866240
701   $aMuir$b Dirk$0968523
712 02$aInternational Monetary Fund.
801  0$bMiAaPQ
801  1$bMiAaPQ
801  2$bMiAaPQ
906   $aBOOK
912   $a9910452852203321
996   $aOil and the world economy$92199925
997   $aUNINA