LEADER 05310nam 2200649Ia 450 001 9910452850803321 005 20200520144314.0 010 $a1-4755-3277-6 010 $a1-4755-7837-7 010 $a1-283-86670-6 010 $a1-4755-5991-7 035 $a(CKB)2550000000709405 035 $a(EBL)1607004 035 $a(SSID)ssj0000941764 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11514417 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000941764 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)10964465 035 $a(PQKB)10001129 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC1607004 035 $a(Au-PeEL)EBL1607004 035 $a(CaPaEBR)ebr10635355 035 $a(CaONFJC)MIL417920 035 $a(OCoLC)870245064 035 $a(EXLCZ)992550000000709405 100 $a20121231d2012 uy 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aurcn||||||||| 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 00$aRegional economic outlook$b[electronic resource] $iMiddle East and Central Asia$hNovember 2012 210 $aWashington, D.C. $cInternational Monetary Fund$d2012 215 $a1 online resource (131 p.) 225 0 $aWorld economic and financial surveys 300 $aDescription based upon print version of record. 311 $a1-4755-1081-0 327 $aCover; Contents; Acknowledgments; Assumptions and Conventions; Country and Regional Groupings; World Economic Outlook; MIDDLE EAST, NORTH AFRICA, AFGHANISTAN, AND PAKISTAN; MENAP Highlights; Tables; MENAP Region: Selected Economic Indicators, 2000-13; Re?gion MOANAP: Principaux points; 1. MENAP Oil Exporters: Increase Resilience and Create Private-Sector Jobs; Oil GDP Growth Falling, Non-Oil GDP Growth Healthy; Figures; 1.1 2012 GDP Growth Boosted by Libya; 1.2 Non-Oil GDP Growth Healthy; Boxes; 1.1 Libya: Moving Beyond the Revolution; Wage Increases Weaken Public Finances 327 $a1.3 Qatar Has Driven Gas Export Growth 1.4 Government Wage Bills Rising Fast; 1.5 Fiscal Positions Have Deteriorated; 1.2 What Is the 'Right' Surplus for the GCC?; A Sustained Large Drop in Oil Prices Is a Key Risk; 1.3 Outward Spillovers from a GDP Shock in the GCC Region; Expenditure Restraint Would Increase Resilience; 1.6 Fiscal Balances Sensitive to Oil Prices; 1.7 Fiscal Vulnerability Rising; 1.8 Probability that Oil Price Falls Below Fiscal Break even Price; Current Account Surpluses Sensitive to Oil Price; Inflation Developments Mixed; 1.9 Large Current Account Surpluses 327 $a1.10 Credit Growth Rising 1.11 Event Study of Oil Prices, 1970-2012; Renewed Bond Issuance; 1.12 GCC Sukuk Issuance Up; 1.13 GCC Bond Yields Down; Reforms for More Inclusive Growth; 1.4 Financial Spillovers to MENAP Oil Exporters; 1.14 Stock Markets Have Made Gains in 2012; 1.15 MENAP Oil Exporters: Restricted International Trade in Services; 1.16 Private-Sector Job Creation for GCC Nationals: High But Not Enough; Annex 1.1. The Natural Gas Market: Where Is It Heading?; Natural Gas Supply Is Meeting Demand; The Increasing Importance of Shale Gas 327 $aBenefits of Indexation to Oil, Regional Segmentation Annex 1.2. Inward Spillovers to MENA Countries from a GDP Shock in G3 Countries; Shock to Chinese GDP; Shock to U.S. GDP; Shock to Euro Area GDP; MENAP Oil Exporters: Selected Economic Indicators; 2. MENAP Oil Importers: Restore Macroeconomic Sustainability and Accelerate Growth; Downturn Continues in 2012, Possible Moderate Recovery in 2013; 2.1 Exports and Imports of Goods; 2.1 Syria's Crisis: Domestic Economic Impact and Regional Spillovers; Inflation Stable in Most Countries, But Concerns Rising 327 $a2.2 Real GDP Growth in 2012 Similar to 20112.3 Weak Recovery in 2013; 2.4 Inflationary Pressures; 2.2 The Economics of Political Transitions; External Deficits Widening, Reserve Buffers Diminished; 2.5 Exchange Rates Have Appreciated in Some Countries; 2.6 International Tourist Arrivals; 2.7 External Current Account Deficits Continue to Widen; 2.3 Recovering from a Downturn: Lessons from Past Business Cycles; Need for Greater Exchange Rate Flexibility; 2.8 International Issuance of Bonds, Equity, and Loans; 2.9 Official Financing Disbursed since Arab Awakening 327 $a2.10 Gross International Reserves Declining 330 $aThe outlook for the Middle East and North Africa region is mixed. Oil-importing countries are witnessing tepid growth, and the moderate recovery expected in 2013 is subject to heightened downside risks. For the Arab countries in transition, ongoing political transitions also weigh on growth. With policy buffers largely eroded, the need for action on macroeconomic stabilization and growth-oriented reforms is becoming increasingly urgent. Countries will need to put in place safety nets to protect the poor and build consensus for some difficult fiscal choices. The region's oil exporters are expected 410 0$aRegional Economic Outlook 606 $aEconomic forecasting$zMiddle East 606 $aEconomic forecasting$zAsia, Central 608 $aElectronic books. 615 0$aEconomic forecasting 615 0$aEconomic forecasting 712 02$aInternational Monetary Fund. 801 0$bMiAaPQ 801 1$bMiAaPQ 801 2$bMiAaPQ 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910452850803321 996 $aRegional economic outlook$91916023 997 $aUNINA