LEADER 04951nam 2200697Ia 450 001 9910452731703321 005 20200520144314.0 010 $a1-4755-3230-X 010 $a1-4755-9666-9 035 $a(CKB)2550000001041558 035 $a(EBL)1607036 035 $a(SSID)ssj0000960552 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11542361 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000960552 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)10949790 035 $a(PQKB)11703716 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC1607036 035 $a(Au-PeEL)EBL1607036 035 $a(CaPaEBR)ebr10661249 035 $a(OCoLC)815561573 035 $a(EXLCZ)992550000001041558 100 $a20121031d2012 uy 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aur|n|---||||| 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 14$aThe global impact of the systemic economies and MENA business cycles$b[electronic resource] /$fprepared by Paul Cashin, Kamiar Mohaddes, and Mehdi Raissi 210 $aWashington, D.C. $cInternational Monetary Fund$dc2012 215 $a1 online resource (41 p.) 225 0 $aIMF working paper ;$vWP/12/255 300 $aDescription based upon print version of record. 311 $a1-4755-5191-6 311 $a1-4755-8164-5 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references. 327 $aCover; Contents; I. Introduction; II. The Global VAR (GVAR) Methodology; III. A Global VAR Model Including the MENA Region; Tables; 1. Countries and Regions in the GVAR Model Including MENA; A. Variables; Domestic Variables; Foreign Variables; Global Variables; B. MENA Trade Weights; 2. MENA Trade Weights; C. Model Specification; 3. Variables Specification of the Country-Specific VARX* Models; D. Country-Specific Estimates and Tests; Lag Order Selection, Cointegrating Relations, and Persistence Profiles 327 $a4. Lag Orders of the Country-Specific VARX*(s,s*) Models Together with the Number of Cointegrating Relations (r)Testing the Weak Exogeneity Assumption; Figures; 1. Persistence Profiles of the Effect of a System-wide Shock to the Cointegrating Relations; Testing for Structural Breaks; 5. F-Statistics for Testing the Weak Exogeneity of the Country-Specific Foreign Variables, Oil Prices, and Oil Production; 6. Number of Rejections of the Null of Parameter Constancy per Variable Across the Country-specific Models at the 5 Percent Significance Level; IV. Inward Spillovers; A. Shock to U.S. GDP 327 $a2. Four Quarters Cumulated Impulse Responses of Output to a Negative GDP Shock in the United States (Relative to the U.S.)3. Four Quarters Cumulated Impulse Responses of Oil Prices and Supply; B. Shock to Euro Area GDP; 4. Four Quarters Cumulated Impulse Responses of Output to a Negative GDP Shock in the Euro Area (Relative to the Euro Area); 5. Impulse Responses of a Negative Unit Shock to Euro Area Output; C. Shock to Chinese GDP; 6. Four Quarters Cumulated Impulse Responses of Output to a Negative GDP Shock in China (Relative to China); V. Outward Spillovers 327 $a7. Four Quarters Cumulated Impulse Responses of Output to a Positive GDP Shock in the GCC Region (Relative to the GCC)8. Four Quarters Cumulated Impulse Responses of Output to a Positive GDP Shock in the MENA Oil Exporters (Relative to the MENAEX); VI. Concluding Remarks; References; Data Appendix; 7. Trade Weights, Averages over 2006-2008; 8. Trade Weights, Averages over 1986-1988 330 $aThis paper analyzes spillovers from macroeconomic shocks in systemic economies (China, the Euro Area, and the United States) to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region as well as outward spillovers from a GDP shock in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries and MENA oil exporters to the rest of the world. This analysis is based on a Global Vector Autoregression (GVAR) model, estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2 to 2011Q2. Spillovers are transmitted across economies via trade, financial, and commodity price linkages. The results show that the MENA countries are 410 0$aIMF Working Papers 606 $aBusiness cycles$zChina$xEconometric models 606 $aBusiness cycles$zUnited Stated$xEconometric models 606 $aBusiness cycles$zMiddle East$xEconometric models 606 $aBusiness cycles$zAfrica, North$xEconometric models 607 $aBusiness cycles$zEurope$xEconometric models 608 $aElectronic books. 615 0$aBusiness cycles$xEconometric models. 615 0$aBusiness cycles$xEconometric models. 615 0$aBusiness cycles$xEconometric models. 615 0$aBusiness cycles$xEconometric models. 700 $aCashin$b Paul$0872375 701 $aMohaddes$b Kamiar$0879383 701 $aRaissi$b Mehdi$0879384 801 0$bMiAaPQ 801 1$bMiAaPQ 801 2$bMiAaPQ 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910452731703321 996 $aThe global impact of the systemic economies and MENA business cycles$91963640 997 $aUNINA