LEADER 04234nam 2200649Ia 450 001 9910452573903321 005 20200520144314.0 010 $a1-4755-2461-7 010 $a1-4755-9607-3 010 $a1-283-86688-9 010 $a1-4755-4455-3 035 $a(CKB)2550000000709423 035 $a(EBL)1607033 035 $a(SSID)ssj0000949363 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11509013 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000949363 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)10997650 035 $a(PQKB)10328861 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC1607033 035 $a(Au-PeEL)EBL1607033 035 $a(CaPaEBR)ebr10635358 035 $a(CaONFJC)MIL417938 035 $a(OCoLC)815548260 035 $a(EXLCZ)992550000000709423 100 $a20121231d2012 uy 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aur|n|---||||| 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 14$aThe differential effects of oil demand and supply shocks on the global economy$b[electronic resource] /$fPaul Cashin ... [et al.] 210 $aWashington, D.C. $cInternational Monetary Fund$d2012 215 $a1 online resource (42 p.) 225 0$aIMF working paper ;$vWP/12/253 300 $aDescription based upon print version of record. 311 $a1-4755-9715-0 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references. 327 $aCover; Contents; I. Introduction; II. The Global VAR (GVAR) Methodology; III. A Global VAR Model Including Major Oil Exporters; Tables; 1. Countries and Regions in the GVAR Model with Major Oil Exporters; A. Variables; Domestic Variables; Foreign Variables; Global Variables; 2. Oil Consumption by Oil Importers, averages over 1979-2010; B. Model Specification; 3. Oil Reserves, Production and Exports of Major Oil Exporters, averages over 2008-2010; C. Country-Specific Estimates and Tests; 4. Variables Specification of the Country-Specific VARX* Models 327 $aLag Order Selection, Cointegrating Relations, and Persistence Profiles5. Lag Orders of the Country-Specific VARX*(s,s*) Models Together with the Number of Cointegrating Relations (r); Figures; 1. Persistence Profiles of the Effect of a System-wide Shock to the Cointegrating Relations; Testing the Weak Exogeneity Assumption; 6. F-Statistics for Testing the Weak Exogeneity of the Country-Specific Foreign Variables, Oil Prices, and Oil Production; Testing for Structural Breaks; IV. Identification of Oil Shocks 327 $a7. Number of Rejections of the Null of Parameter Constancy per Variable Across the Country-specific Models at the 5 Percent Significance Level8. Identification of Structural Shocks; A. Oil-Supply Shocks; 2. Impact of Oil-Supply Shocks on Major Oil Importers; 3. Impact of Oil-Supply Shocks on OPEC Countries; 4. Impact of Oil-Supply Shocks on OECD Oil Exporters; B. Oil-Demand Shocks; 5. Impact of Oil-Demand Shocks on Major Oil Importers; 6. Impact of Oil-Demand Shocks on OPEC Countries; 7. Impact of Oil-Demand Shocks on OECD Oil Exporters; V. Concluding Remarks; References; Data Appendix 327 $a9. Fixed Trade Weights based on the years 2006-2008 330 $aWe employ a set of sign restrictions on the generalized impulse responses of a Global VARmodel, estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2?2011Q2, to discriminatebetween supply-driven and demand-driven oil-price shocks and to study the time profile oftheir macroeconomic effects for different countries. The results indicate that the economicconsequences of a supply-driven oil-price shock are very different from those of an oil-demand shock driven by global economic activity, and vary for oil-importing countries compared to energy exporters. While oil importers typ 410 0$aIMF Working Papers 606 $aPetroleum reserves$xEconomic aspects 606 $aEconomics 608 $aElectronic books. 615 0$aPetroleum reserves$xEconomic aspects. 615 0$aEconomics. 700 $aCashin$b Paul$0872375 712 02$aInternational Monetary Fund. 801 0$bMiAaPQ 801 1$bMiAaPQ 801 2$bMiAaPQ 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910452573903321 996 $aThe differential effects of oil demand and supply shocks on the global economy$92200187 997 $aUNINA