LEADER 04270nam 2200685 a 450 001 9910450798503321 005 20210617030220.0 010 $a1-281-12616-0 010 $a9786611126162 010 $a0-226-97892-3 024 7 $a10.7208/9780226978925 035 $a(CKB)1000000000412969 035 $a(EBL)408199 035 $a(OCoLC)648335512 035 $a(SSID)ssj0000116137 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11145076 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000116137 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)10050794 035 $a(PQKB)11078167 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC408199 035 $a(DE-B1597)535788 035 $a(OCoLC)781253320 035 $a(DE-B1597)9780226978925 035 $a(Au-PeEL)EBL408199 035 $a(CaPaEBR)ebr10209937 035 $a(CaONFJC)MIL112616 035 $a(EXLCZ)991000000000412969 100 $a20081215h19961992 uy 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aurnn#---||||| 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 10$aBusiness cycles$b[electronic resource] $etheory, history, indicators, and forecasting /$fVictor Zarnowitz 205 $aPbk. ed. 210 $aChicago $cUniversity of Chicago Press$d1996, c1992 215 $a1 online resource (614 p.) 225 1 $aStudies in business cycles ;$vv. 27 300 $aDescription based upon print version of record. 311 0 $a0-226-97891-5 311 0 $a0-226-97890-7 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references and indexes. 327 $tFront matter --$tNational Bureau of Economic Research --$tRelation of the Directors to the Work and Publications of the National Bureau of Economic Research --$tContents --$tAcknowledgments --$tPreface --$tI. THEORIES AND EVIDENCE --$t1. Macroeconomics and Business Cycles: An Overview --$t2. Recent Work on Business Cycles in Historical Perspective --$t3. Facts and Factors in the Modern Evolution of U.S. Economic Fluctuations --$t4. Cyclical Aspects of Cost and Price Movements --$t5. Research during the First 50 Years of the National Bureau --$tII. HISTORY AND MEASUREMENT --$t6. How Trends and Fluctuations Are Observed, Modeled, and Simulated: An Introduction --$t7. Business Cycles and Growth --$t8. The Regularity of Business Cycles --$t9. Econometric Model Simulations and the Cyclical Characteristics of the Economy --$tIII. INDICATORS --$t10. Cyclical Indicators: Structure, Significance, and Uses --$t11. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators --$t12. Major Macroeconomic Variables and Leading Indexes --$tIV. FORECASTING --$t13. On Short-Term Predictions of General Economic Conditions --$t14. An Analysis of Annual and Multiperiod Quarterly Aggregate Forecasts --$t15. The Accuracy of Individual and Group Forecasts --$t16. Rational Expectations and Macroeconomic Forecasts --$t17. Consensus and Uncertainty in Economic Prediction --$t18. The Record and Improvability of Economic Forecasting --$tReferences --$tAuthor Index --$tSubject Index 330 $aThis volume presents the most complete collection available of the work of Victor Zarnowitz, a leader in the study of business cycles, growth, inflation, and forecasting.. With characteristic insight, Zarnowitz examines theories of the business cycle, including Keynesian and monetary theories and more recent rational expectation and real business cycle theories. He also measures trends and cycles in economic activity; evaluates the performance of leading indicators and their composite measures; surveys forecasting tools and performance of business and academic economists; discusses historical changes in the nature and sources of business cycles; and analyzes how successfully forecasting firms and economists predict such key economic variables as interest rates and inflation. 410 0$aStudies in business cycles ;$vno. 27. 606 $aBusiness cycles 606 $aEconomic forecasting 608 $aElectronic books. 615 0$aBusiness cycles. 615 0$aEconomic forecasting. 676 $a338.5/42 676 $a338.542 700 $aZarnowitz$b Victor$f1919-2009.$0118949 801 0$bMiAaPQ 801 1$bMiAaPQ 801 2$bMiAaPQ 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910450798503321 996 $aBusiness cycles$944082 997 $aUNINA