LEADER 04737nam 22006495 450 001 9910438238003321 005 20200920094645.0 010 $a94-007-7551-2 024 7 $a10.1007/978-94-007-7551-0 035 $a(CKB)3710000000078943 035 $a(EBL)1636822 035 $a(OCoLC)871224177 035 $a(SSID)ssj0001091682 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11697717 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0001091682 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)11029929 035 $a(PQKB)11354483 035 $a(DE-He213)978-94-007-7551-0 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC1636822 035 $a(PPN)17612957X 035 $a(EXLCZ)993710000000078943 100 $a20131216d2013 u| 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aur|n|---||||| 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 12$aA Practitioner's Guide to State and Local Population Projections /$fby Stanley K. Smith, Jeff Tayman, David A. Swanson 205 $a1st ed. 2013. 210 1$aDordrecht :$cSpringer Netherlands :$cImprint: Springer,$d2013. 215 $a1 online resource (417 p.) 225 1 $aThe Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis,$x1389-6784 ;$v37 300 $aDescription based upon print version of record. 311 $a94-007-7550-4 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references at the end of each chapters and index. 327 $aChapter 1: Rationale, Terminology, Scope -- Chapter 2: Fundamental  of Population Analysis -- Chapter 3: Overview of the Cohort-Component Method -- Chapter 4: Mortality -- Chapter 5: fertility -- Chapter 6: Migration -- Chapter 7: Implementing the Cohort-Component Method -- Chapter 8: Extrapolation Methods -- Chapter 9: Structural and Microsimulation Models -- Chapter 10: Special Adjustments -- Chapter 11: Related Projections -- Chapter 12: Evaluating Projections -- Chapter 13 Forecast Accuracy and Bias -- Chapter 14: A Practical Guide to Small-Area Projections -- Epilogues: Some Final Thoughts -- Glossary -- Index. 330 $aThis book focuses on the methodology and analysis of state and local population projections. It describes the most commonly used data sources and application techniques for four types of projection methods: cohort-component, trend extrapolation, structural models, and microsimulation. It covers the components of population growth, sources of data, the formation of assumptions, the development of evaluation criteria, and the determinants of forecast accuracy. It considers the strengths and weaknesses of various projection methods and pays special attention to the unique problems that characterize small-area projections.    The authors provide practical guidance to demographers, planners, market analysts, and others called on to construct state and local population projections. They use many examples and illustrations and present suggestions for dealing with special populations, unique circumstances, and inadequate or unreliable data. They describe techniques for controlling one set of projections to another, for interpolating between time points, for sub-dividing age groups, and for constructing projections of population-related variables (e.g., school enrollment, households). They discuss the role of judgment and the importance of the political context in which projections are made. They emphasize the ?utility? of projections, or their usefulness for decision making in a world of competing demands and limited resources.   This comprehensive book will provide readers with an understanding not only of the mechanics of the most commonly used population projection methods, but also of the many complex issues affecting their construction, interpretation, evaluation, and use. 410 0$aThe Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis,$x1389-6784 ;$v37 606 $aDemography 606 $aSocial sciences 606 $aDemography$3https://scigraph.springernature.com/ontologies/product-market-codes/X25000 606 $aMethodology of the Social Sciences$3https://scigraph.springernature.com/ontologies/product-market-codes/X17000 615 0$aDemography. 615 0$aSocial sciences. 615 14$aDemography. 615 24$aMethodology of the Social Sciences. 676 $a304.620112 700 $aSmith$b Stanley K$4aut$4http://id.loc.gov/vocabulary/relators/aut$0936849 702 $aTayman$b Jeff$4aut$4http://id.loc.gov/vocabulary/relators/aut 702 $aSwanson$b David A$4aut$4http://id.loc.gov/vocabulary/relators/aut 801 0$bMiAaPQ 801 1$bMiAaPQ 801 2$bMiAaPQ 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910438238003321 996 $aA Practitioner's Guide to State and Local Population Projections$92504224 997 $aUNINA