LEADER 05849nam 2200625Ia 450 001 9910438232103321 005 20200520144314.0 010 $a1-299-40834-6 010 $a90-481-8948-9 024 7 $a10.1007/978-90-481-8948-9 035 $a(CKB)2670000000338243 035 $a(EBL)971994 035 $a(OCoLC)828303311 035 $a(SSID)ssj0000879130 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11540464 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000879130 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)10837660 035 $a(PQKB)10598780 035 $a(DE-He213)978-90-481-8948-9 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC971994 035 $a(PPN)168335131 035 $a(EXLCZ)992670000000338243 100 $a20130228d2013 uy 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aur|n|---||||| 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 00$aInternational migration and the future of populations and labour in Europe /$fMarek Kupiszewski, editor 205 $a1st ed. 2013. 210 $aDordrecht ;$aNew York $cSpringer$d2013 215 $a1 online resource (348 p.) 225 0 $aSpringer series on Demographic methods and population analysis 300 $aDescription based upon print version of record. 311 $a94-007-9269-7 311 $a90-481-8947-0 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references and index. 327 $aAcknowledgements -- 1: Introduction: Marek Kupiszewski -- PART I: INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION - POLICIES, THEORIES, TRENDS AND ASSUMPTIONS -- 2: Migration policy in the European perspective: a primer for forecasters: Anna Kicinger -- 3: The use of international migration theories in migration forecasting ? a practical approach: Marek Kupiszewski, Jakub Bijak, Anna Kicinger -- 4: Recent trends in international migration in Europe prior to 2002: Jakub Bijak, Marek Kupiszewski -- 5: International migration scenarios for 27 European countries, 2002-2052: Jakub Bijak, Anna Kicinger, Marek Kupiszewski -- PART II: PAST AND FUTURE OF FERTILITY AND MORTALITY IN EUROPE -- 6.: Fertility scenarios for 27 European countries, 2002-2052: Jakub Bijak -- 7: Mortality scenarios for 27 European countries, 2002-2052: Jakub Bijak -- PART III: HISTORICAL DEVELOPMENT AND ASSUMPTIONS ON LABOUR FORCE PARTICIPATION IN EUROPE -- 8: Models and factors of labour force participation ? theoretical and empirical considerations: Katarzyna Saczuk -- 9: Historical trends in labour force participation in Europe (1985-2002): Katarzyna Saczuk -- 10: Scenarios of labour force participation for 27 European countries 2002-2052: Kararzyna Saczuk -- PART IV: FUTURES OF EUROPEAN POPULATIONS AND LABOUR FORCE -- 11: Population and labour force dynamics model: Dorota Kupiszewska, Marek Kupiszewski -- The futures of European populations and labour force, 2002-2052: Jakub Bijak, Dorota Kupiszewski, Marek Kupiszewski, Katarzyna Saczuk -- PART V: BEYOND OF REPLACEMENT MIGRATION: RESULTS OF POPULAITON AND LABOUR FORCE SIMULATIONS: 13: A development and critique of the concept of replacement migration: Katarzyna Saczuk -- 14: Population ageing, population decline and replacement migration in Europe (Jakub Bijak, Dorota Kupiszewska, Marek Kupiszewski, Katarzyna Saczuk -- PART VI: CRITICAL ASSESSMENT OF THE RESULTS AND POLICY IMPACT: 15: Critical assessment of the labour force evolution in Europe: Elzbieta Krynska -- 16: Demography rules in pension systems: Marek Gora -- 17: Recommendations for European social and population policies: Jakub Bijak -- 18: References. 330 $aThe changes of populations are determined by fertility, mortality and migration. On the national level, international migration is a factor of increasing demographic, economic, social and political importance. This book addresses the debate on the impact of international migration and economic activity on population and labour force resources in future. It presents a study conducted for 27 European countries, looking 50 years ahead (2002-2052). An extended discussion of theories and factors underlying the assumed evolution of the components of change and economic activity is included as well as a detailed analysis of the historical trends. These theoretical and empirical considerations lead to defining scenarios of future mortality, fertility, economic activity and international migration, which have been fed into a projection model, producing various future population dynamics and labour force trajectories. In addition, simulations have been made to estimate the size of replacement migration needed to maintain selected demographic and labour market parameters in the countries of Europe. The results presented in this book allow researchers, governments and policy makers to evaluate to what extent various migration and labour market policies may be instrumental in achieving the desired population and labour size and structures. The secondary purpose of this volume is to reveal the methodology and argumentation lying behind a complex population forecasting and simulation exercise, which is not done frequently, but is critical for the assessment of the forecasts and also valuable from a purely didactic point of view. 410 0$aThe Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis,$x1389-6784 ;$v32 606 $aEmployment forecasting$zEurope$xForecasting 606 $aForeign workers$xSupply and demand$zEurope$xForecasting 606 $aImmigrants$zEurope 615 0$aEmployment forecasting$xForecasting. 615 0$aForeign workers$xSupply and demand$xForecasting. 615 0$aImmigrants 676 $a304.84 701 $aKupiszewski$b Marek$0254677 801 0$bMiAaPQ 801 1$bMiAaPQ 801 2$bMiAaPQ 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910438232103321 996 $aInternational migration and the future of populations and labour in Europe$94202825 997 $aUNINA