LEADER 04600nam 2200781 450 001 9910418324703321 005 20230621141325.0 010 $a3-030-42472-3 024 7 $a10.1007/978-3-030-42472-5 035 $a(CKB)5590000000002298 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC6359357 035 $a(DE-He213)978-3-030-42472-5 035 $a(Au-PeEL)EBL6359357 035 $a(OCoLC)1202453421 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC6360729 035 $a(Au-PeEL)EBL6360729 035 $a(oapen)https://directory.doabooks.org/handle/20.500.12854/35493 035 $a(EXLCZ)995590000000002298 100 $a20200928d2020 u| 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aurnn#008mamaa 181 $ctxt$2rdacontent 182 $cc$2rdamedia 183 $acr$2rdacarrier 200 10$aDevelopments in demographic forecasting /$fedited by Stefano Mazzuco, Nico Keilman 205 $aFirst edition, 2020. 210 $cSpringer Nature$d2020 210 1$aCham :$cSpringer International Publishing :$cImprint: Springer,$d2020. 215 $a1 online resource (viii, 258 pages) $cillustrations; digital, PDF file(s) 225 1 $aThe Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis ;$v49 311 08$aPrint version: 9783030424718 327 $aChapter 1. Introduction­ -- Chapter 2. Stochastic population forecasting: A Bayesian approach based on evaluation by experts -- Chapter 3. Using expert elicitation to build long-term projection assumptions -- Chapter 4. Post-Transitional Demography and Convergence: What can we Learn from Half a Century of World Population Prospects? -- Chapter 5. Projecting Proportionate Age?Specific Fertility Rates via Bayesian Skewed Processes -- Chapter 6. A Three-component Approach to Model and Forecast Age-at-death Distributions -- Chapter 7. Alternative forecasts of Danish life expectancy -- Chapter 8. Coherent mortality forecasting with standards: low mortality serves as a guide -- Chapter 9. European mortality forecasts: Are the targets still moving? -- Chapter 10. Bayesian disaggregated forecasts: Internal migration in Iceland -- Chapter 11. Forecasting origin-destination-age-sex migration flow tables with multiplicative components -- Chapter 12. New Approaches to the Conceptualization and Measurement of Age and Ageing. 330 $aThis open access book presents new developments in the field of demographic forecasting, covering both mortality, fertility and migration. For each component emerging methods to forecast them are presented. Moreover, instruments for forecasting evaluation are provided. Bayesian models, nonparametric models, cohort approaches, elicitation of expert opinion, evaluation of probabilistic forecasts are some of the topics covered in the book. In addition, the book is accompanied by complementary material on the web allowing readers to practice with some of the ideas exposed in the book. Readers are encouraged to use this material to apply the new methods to their own data. The book is an important read for demographers, applied statisticians, as well as other social scientists interested or active in the field of population forecasting. Professional population forecasters in statistical agencies will find useful new ideas in various chapters. 410 0$aThe Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis ;$v49 606 $aDemography 606 $aStatistics  606 $aDemography 606 $aStatistics for Social Sciences, Humanities, Law 610 $aDemography 610 $aStatistics for Social Sciences, Humanities, Law 610 $aPopulation and Demography 610 $aStatistics in Social Sciences, Humanities, Law, Education, Behavorial Sciences, Public Policy 610 $aPopulation forecasting 610 $aFertility 610 $aMortality 610 $aMigration 610 $aForecasting evaluation 610 $aSocial Media data 610 $aPopulation statistics 610 $aPopulation modelling 610 $aBayesian population models 610 $aOpen access 610 $aPopulation & demography 610 $aSocial research & statistics 615 0$aDemography. 615 0$aStatistics . 615 14$aDemography. 615 24$aStatistics for Social Sciences, Humanities, Law. 676 $a304.6 700 $aMazzuco$b Stefano$4edt$01364686 702 $aMazzuco$b Stefano 702 $aKeilman$b Nico 801 0$beng 801 2$bUkMaJRU 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910418324703321 996 $aDevelopments in demographic forecasting$93386207 997 $aUNINA