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181   $ctxt$2rdacontent
182   $cc$2rdamedia
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200 10$aExperts, Social Scientists, and Techniques of Prognosis in Cold War America /$fby Christian Dayé
205   $a1st ed. 2020.
210  1$aCham :$cSpringer International Publishing :$cImprint: Palgrave Macmillan,$d2020.
215   $a1 online resource (259 pages)
225 1 $aSocio-Historical Studies of the Social and Human Sciences
311   $a3-030-32780-9 
327   $a1. Introduction: A Culture of Insecurity and its Experts -- 2. Experts, Think Tanks, and the Delicate Balance of Public Trust. - 3. The Wisdom of the Group: RAND's First Experiments with Expert Prediction, 1947-1951 -- 4. Negotiating Rules for the Game: Political Games at RAND, 1954-1956 -- 5. The Oracle's Epistemology: Expert Opinions as Scientific Material -- 6.The Boredom of the Crowd: The Long-Range Forecasting Delphi, 1963-1964 -- 7. Conclusion: The Strength of Epistemic Hopes. .
330   $aThis book describes how Cold War researchers used expert opinions to construct foreknowledge of geopolitical relevance. Focusing on the RAND Corporation, an American think tank with close relations to the armed forces, Dayé analyses the development of two techniques of prognosis, the Delphi technique and Political Gaming. Based on archival research and interviews, the chapters explore the history of this series of experiments to understand how contemporary social scientists conceived of one of the core categories of the Cold War, the expert, and uncover the systematic use of expert opinions to craft prognoses. This consideration of the expert?s role in Cold War society and what that can tell us about the role of the expert today will be of interest to students and scholars across the history of science, the sociology of knowledge, future studies, the history of the Cold War, social science methodology, and social policy. .
410  0$aSocio-Historical Studies of the Social and Human Sciences
606   $aSociology
606   $aHistorical sociology
606   $aPolitical sociology
606   $aIntellectual life?History
606   $aUnited States?History
606   $aKnowledge - Discourse$3https://scigraph.springernature.com/ontologies/product-market-codes/X22120
606   $aHistorical Sociology$3https://scigraph.springernature.com/ontologies/product-market-codes/X22130
606   $aPolitical Sociology$3https://scigraph.springernature.com/ontologies/product-market-codes/X22170
606   $aIntellectual Studies$3https://scigraph.springernature.com/ontologies/product-market-codes/729000
606   $aUS History$3https://scigraph.springernature.com/ontologies/product-market-codes/718010
615  0$aSociology.
615  0$aHistorical sociology.
615  0$aPolitical sociology.
615  0$aIntellectual life?History.
615  0$aUnited States?History.
615 14$aKnowledge - Discourse.
615 24$aHistorical Sociology.
615 24$aPolitical Sociology.
615 24$aIntellectual Studies.
615 24$aUS History.
676   $a301.0973
700   $aDayé$b Christian$4aut$4http://id.loc.gov/vocabulary/relators/aut$0923125
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906   $aBOOK
912   $a9910370048103321
996   $aExperts, Social Scientists, and Techniques of Prognosis in Cold War America$92522950
997   $aUNINA