LEADER 09957 am 22006733u 450 001 9910297044003321 005 20200116 010 $a3-631-75437-X 024 7 $a10.3726/b13957 035 $a(CKB)4100000007276951 035 $a(OAPEN)1003213 035 $a(WaSeSS)IndRDA00124457 035 $a(oapen)https://directory.doabooks.org/handle/20.500.12854/26090 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC30686005 035 $a(Au-PeEL)EBL30686005 035 $a(EXLCZ)994100000007276951 100 $a20200611d2005 uy 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $auuuuu---auuuu 181 $ctxt$2rdacontent 182 $cc$2rdamedia 183 $acr$2rdacarrier 200 10$aExplaining financial crises $ea cyclical approach /$fMarc Peter Radke 205 $a1st ed. 210 $aBern$cPeter Lang International Academic Publishing Group$d2018 210 1$aFrankfurt am Main, Germany :$cPeter Lang,$d2005. 215 $a1 online resource (430) 225 1 $aHohenheimer Volkswirtschaftliche Schriften ;$vBand 53 311 $a3-631-54350-6 327 $aCover -- Preface -- List of Figures -- List of Tables -- 1 Introduction and Overview -- 1.1 History vs. Theory -- 1.2 Outline of the Book -- I Theoretical and Empirical Foundations -- 2 Financial Crises and Financial Instability: Definitions and Principles -- 2.1 A General Definition of Financial Crises -- 2.2 Asset Price Fluctuations and Aggregate Economic Activity -- 2.2.1 Determinants of Asset Prices -- 2.2.2 Asset Prices and Financial Constraints -- 2.2.2.1 Perfect Capital Market Theory -- 2.2.2.2 Imperfect Capital Market Theory -- 2.2.2.3 A Comparison with Real World Financial Constraints -- 2.2.3 Asset Prices and Aggregate Demand -- 2.2.4 Asset Prices, Liquidity, Solvency and the Emergence of Cumulative Processes -- 2.2.4.1 Liquidity, Solvency, and Profits: Definitions and Interdependencies -- 2.2.4.2 Determinants of Bankruptcy -- 2.2.4.3 Cumulative Expansions and Contractions -- 2.3 Determinants of Financial Instability -- 2.3.1 A General Definition of Financial Instability -- 2.3.2 Cash Flow Positions and Present Values -- 2.3.2.1 Hedge, Speculative and Ponzi-Finance -- 2.3.2.2 Financial Instability in Closed Economies -- 2.3.2.3 Foreign Hedge, Foreign Speculative, and Foreign Ponzi Finance -- 2.3.2.4 Financial Instability in Open Economies -- 2.3.3 Adequacy of Refinancing Possibilities -- 2.3.4 Excess Volatility in Asset Prices -- 2.3.5 Monetary Instability and Debt Deflation -- 2.4 Exogenous and Endogenous Financial Crises -- 3 Stylized Facts and Standard Theory of Financial Crises -- 3.1 Defining and Identifying Financial Crises -- 3.1.1 Currency Crises -- 3.1.2 Banking Crises -- 3.1.3 Twin Crises -- 3.2 Frequency and Severity of Financial Crises -- 3.2.1 Incidence of Financial Crises -- 3.2.2 Duration and Costs of Financial Crises -- 3.3 Business Cycles, Financial Liberalization, and Financial Crises -- 3.3.1 Basic Links. 327 $a3.3.2 Financial Liberalization in the Post Bretton Woods Era -- 3.4 Stylized Behaviour of Macroeconomic Variables During Episodes of Financial Crises -- 3.4.1 Financial Market Variables -- 3.4.1.1 Monetary Aggregates and Foreign Exchange Reserves -- 3.4.1.2 Deposits and Domestic Credit -- 3.4.1.3 Interest Rates -- 3.4.1.4 Equity and Real Estate Prices -- 3.4.2 Current Account Variables -- 3.4.3 Capital Account Variables -- 3.4.4 Real Sector Variables -- 3.4.5 Balance Sheet Variables -- 3.4.5.1 Liquidity and Profit Variables -- 3.4.5.2 Market Valuation and Solvency Variables -- 3.4.6 An Assessment -- 3.5 Standard Theory of Financial Crises and its Correspondence with the Stylized Facts -- 3.5.1 Inconsistent Macroeconomic Policy Models -- 3.5.2 Self-Fulfilling Expectations Models -- 3.5.3 Asymmetric Information Models -- 3.5.4 Credit Constraint and Balance Sheet Models -- 3.5.5 Endogenous Financial Crisis Models -- 3.5.6 An Assessment -- II A Cyclical Theory of Financial Crises -- 4 A Model of Financial Crises and Endogenous Fluctuations in Industrial Countries -- 4.1 The Real Side -- 4.2 The Financial Side -- 4.2.1 A Stylized Financial Structure -- 4.2.2 Financial Market Equilibria -- 4.3 Short-Run Comparative-Static Analysis -- 4.3.1 General Results -- 4.3.2 A Comparative-Static View of Financial Crises -- 4.4 Long-Run Dynamic Analysis -- 4.4.1 Finance, Investment and Long-Run Profit Expectations -- 4.4.2 The Local Dynamics of the System -- 4.4.3 Phase Diagram Analysis -- 4.4.4 The Global Dynamics of the System -- 4.4.5 A Dynamic View of Financial Crises and Macroeconomic Fluctuations -- 4.4.5.1 The Emergence of Endogenous Long-Run Equilibrium Business Cycles -- 4.4.5.2 The Emergence of Financial Crises -- 4.4.6 A Keynesian Perspective on Global Dynamics -- 4.5 A Comparison with Standard Theory of Financial Crises. 327 $a4.5.1 Inconsistent Macroeconomic Policy Models -- 4.5.2 Self-Fulfilling Expectations Models -- 4.5.3 Asymmetric Information Models -- 4.5.4 Credit Constraint and Balance Sheet Models -- 4.5.5 Endogenous Financial Crisis Models -- 4.5.6 An Assessment -- 4.6 A Comparison with Standard Business Cycle Theory -- 4.6.1 Theories of Endogenous Business Cycles -- 4.6.2 Theories of Exogenous Shock-Driven Business Cycles -- 4.6.3 An Assessment -- 4.7 Mathematical Supplements -- 5 A Model of Financial Crises and Endogenous Fluctuations in Emerging Market Countries -- 5.1 The Real Side -- 5.2 The Financial Side -- 5.2.1 A Stylized Financial Structure -- 5.2.2 Financial Market Equilibria -- 5.3 Short-Run Comparative-Static Analysis -- 5.3.1 General Results -- 5.3.2 A Comparative-Static View of Financial Crises -- 5.4 Long-Run Dynamic Analysis -- 5.4.1 Finance, Investment and Long-Run Profit Expectations -- 5.4.2 The Local Dynamics of the System -- 5.4.3 Phase Diagram Analysis -- 5.4.4 The Global Dynamics of the System -- 5.4.5 A Dynamic View of Financial Crises and Macroeconomic Fluctuations -- 5.4.5.1 The Emergence of Endogenous Long-Run Equilibrium Business Cycles -- 5.4.5.2 Domestic Financial Crisis without Currency Crisis -- 5.4.5.3 The Occurrence of a Twin Crisis -- 5.4.6 A Keynesian Perspective on Global Dynamics -- 5.5 A Comparison with Standard Theory of Financial Crises -- 5.5.1 Inconsistent Macroeconomic Policy Models -- 5.5.2 Self-Fulfilling Expectations Models -- 5.5.3 Asymmetric Information Models -- 5.5.4 Credit Constraint and Balance Sheet Models -- 5.5.5 Endogenous Financial Crisis Models -- 5.5.6 An Assessment -- 5.6 A Comparison with Standard Business Cycle Theory -- 5.7 Mathematical Supplements -- 6 A Calibration Model of Financial Crises in Emerging Markets -- 6.1 The Nature of Calibration Models. 327 $a6.1.1 Solution Procedures to Dynamic General Function Models, Limitations, and Simulation Methods -- 6.1.2 Simulation of Financial Crises with Calibration Techniques -- 6.2 The Real Side -- 6.3 The Financial Side -- 6.3.1 A Stylized Financial Structure -- 6.3.2 Financial Market Equilibria -- 6.4 The Balance of Payments -- 6.5 Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy -- 6.6 Analytical Solution of the Model -- 6.7 Simulation Classifications and Assumptions -- 6.7.1 Financial Crises as a Cyclical Phenomenon -- 6.7.2 Financial Crises as an Adverse Exogenous Shock Phenomenon -- 6.8 Sensitivity Analysis and Method of Graphical Representation -- 6.9 Simulation of Financial Crises as a Cyclical Phenomenon -- 6.9.1 The Boom Phase -- 6.9.2 The Overborrowing Phase and the Upper Turning Point -- 6.9.3 The Bust Phase -- 6.10 Simulation of Financial Crises Caused by an Adverse Foreign Interest Rate Shock -- 7 Conclusion -- 7.1 New Perspectives for Economic Theory -- 7.2 Policy Recommendations -- A Tobin's q-Theory of Investment -- B Financial Constraints in Perfect Capital Markets -- C An Example of Off-Balance Sheet Transactions -- D Forward vs. Backward Looking Variables and Solutions of General Dynamic Rational Expectations Models -- D.1 Forward and Backward Solutions of Linear Differential Equations -- D.2 The Leibnitz Rule: Differentiating a Definite Integral -- D.3 Backward and Forward Looking Variables -- D.4 Forward Looking Variables, Rational Expectations and Dynamic Stability -- D.5 Solutions to General Dynamic Rational Expectations Models -- E Kalecki's Theory of Profits -- Symbol Glossary -- Bibliography. 330 $aThis book develops a new theoretical approach to the explanation of systemic financial crises in industrial and emerging market countries. In contrast to standard models, the present cyclical approach is consistent with the following three stylized facts. Firstly, systemic financial crises are a recurrent phenomenon generally accompanied by excessive boom-bust cycles. Secondly, the frequency of financial crisis cycles is very irregular. Thirdly, most financial crisis cycles are initiated by positive shocks to profit expectations which induce an unsustainable build-up of financial fragility driven by irrational exuberance. The present approach is based on a sophisticated balancesheet structure with many assets, as well as on an expectation formation scheme which combines the rational expectations hypothesis with Keynes? Beauty Contest Theory. 410 0$aHohenheimer volkswirtschaftliche Schriften ;$vBand 53. 606 $aFinancial crises 606 $aBusiness cycles 610 $aApproach 610 $aBeauty Contest Theory 610 $aCrises 610 $aCyclical 610 $aExplaining 610 $aFinancial 610 $aFinancial Crises 610 $aFinancial Stability 610 $aLong-Run Rationality 610 $aRadke 610 $aTheorie 610 $aWährungskrise 615 0$aFinancial crises. 615 0$aBusiness cycles. 676 $a338.542 700 $aRadke$b Marc Peter$f1972-$0951461 801 0$bWaSeSS 801 1$bWaSeSS 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910297044003321 996 $aExplaining financial crises$92150983 997 $aUNINA