LEADER 04194nam 22007335 450 001 9910254122803321 005 20200704011157.0 010 $a981-10-1113-3 024 7 $a10.1007/978-981-10-1113-9 035 $a(CKB)3710000000686224 035 $a(EBL)4532034 035 $a(DE-He213)978-981-10-1113-9 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC4532034 035 $a(PPN)194076768 035 $a(EXLCZ)993710000000686224 100 $a20160516d2016 u| 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aur|n|---||||| 181 $ctxt$2rdacontent 182 $cc$2rdamedia 183 $acr$2rdacarrier 200 10$aNatural Disasters, When Will They Reach Me? /$fby Isuri Wijesundera, Malka N. Halgamuge, Thrishantha Nanayakkara, Thas Nirmalathas 205 $a1st ed. 2016. 210 1$aSingapore :$cSpringer Singapore :$cImprint: Springer,$d2016. 215 $a1 online resource (143 p.) 225 1 $aSpringer Natural Hazards,$x2365-0656 300 $aDescription based upon print version of record. 311 $a981-10-1111-7 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references at the end of each chapters and index. 327 $aThe stochastic nature of disaster propagation -- Predicting Flood induced by cyclones -- How to forecast the spread of bushfires -- Propagation on a non-homogeneous media in the presence of bias -- Conclusion. 330 $aThe expected time of impact, also known as the mean first passage time (MFPT) to reach failure, is a critical metric in the management of natural disasters. The complexity of the dynamics governing natural disasters lead to stochastic behaviour. This book shows that state transitions of many such systems translate into random walks on their respective state spaces, biased and shaped by environmental inhomogeneity. Thus the probabilistic treatment of those random walks gives valuable insights of expected behaviour. A comprehensive case study of predicting cyclone induced flood is followed by a discussion of generic methods that predict MFPT addressing directional bias. This is followed by discussing MFPT prediction methods in systems showing network inhomogeneity. All presented methods are illustrated using real datasets of natural disasters. The book ends with a short discussion of possible future research areas introducing the problem of predicting MFPT for bush-fire propagation. 410 0$aSpringer Natural Hazards,$x2365-0656 606 $aNatural disasters 606 $aComputer simulation 606 $aEnvironmental monitoring 606 $aComputers 606 $aEnvironmental sciences 606 $aNatural Hazards$3https://scigraph.springernature.com/ontologies/product-market-codes/G32000 606 $aSimulation and Modeling$3https://scigraph.springernature.com/ontologies/product-market-codes/I19000 606 $aMonitoring/Environmental Analysis$3https://scigraph.springernature.com/ontologies/product-market-codes/U1400X 606 $aInformation Systems and Communication Service$3https://scigraph.springernature.com/ontologies/product-market-codes/I18008 606 $aMath. Appl. in Environmental Science$3https://scigraph.springernature.com/ontologies/product-market-codes/U24005 615 0$aNatural disasters. 615 0$aComputer simulation. 615 0$aEnvironmental monitoring. 615 0$aComputers. 615 0$aEnvironmental sciences. 615 14$aNatural Hazards. 615 24$aSimulation and Modeling. 615 24$aMonitoring/Environmental Analysis. 615 24$aInformation Systems and Communication Service. 615 24$aMath. Appl. in Environmental Science. 676 $a363.349 700 $aWijesundera$b Isuri$4aut$4http://id.loc.gov/vocabulary/relators/aut$01064991 702 $aHalgamuge$b Malka N$4aut$4http://id.loc.gov/vocabulary/relators/aut 702 $aNanayakkara$b Thrishantha$4aut$4http://id.loc.gov/vocabulary/relators/aut 702 $aNirmalathas$b Thas$4aut$4http://id.loc.gov/vocabulary/relators/aut 801 0$bMiAaPQ 801 1$bMiAaPQ 801 2$bMiAaPQ 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910254122803321 996 $aNatural Disasters, When Will They Reach Me$92542183 997 $aUNINA