LEADER 04692nam 22006255 450 001 9910252711903321 005 20230126215658.0 010 $a3-319-53745-8 024 7 $a10.1007/978-3-319-53745-0 035 $a(CKB)3850000000027361 035 $a(DE-He213)978-3-319-53745-0 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC6312872 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC5577977 035 $a(Au-PeEL)EBL5577977 035 $a(OCoLC)1066199780 035 $a(EXLCZ)993850000000027361 100 $a20170421d2017 u| 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aurnn|008mamaa 181 $ctxt$2rdacontent 182 $cc$2rdamedia 183 $acr$2rdacarrier 200 10$aCohort Change Ratios and their Applications /$fby Jack Baker, David A. Swanson, Jeff Tayman, Lucky M. Tedrow 205 $a1st ed. 2017. 210 1$aCham :$cSpringer International Publishing :$cImprint: Springer,$d2017. 215 $a1 online resource (XIII, 255 p. 19 illus.) 311 $a3-319-53744-X 327 $aForeword -- Preface -- Chapter 1 Introduction -- Chapter 2 Basic Demographic Concepts -- Chapter 3 Sources of Demographic Information -- Chapter 4 Forecasting Population Size and Composition -- Chapter 5 Forecasting Using Modified Cohort Change Ratios -- Chapter 6 Forecasting Uncertainty -- Chapter 7 Forecasting School Enrollment Size and Composition -- Chapter 8 Forecasting Other Characteristics -- Chapter 9 Estimating Population Size and Composition -- Chapter 10 Estimating Historical Populations -- Chapter 11 Estimating Life Expectancy -- Chapter 12 Stable Population Theory -- Chapter 13 Decomposition of Cohort Change Ratios -- Chapter 14 Forecasting Incorporating Spatial Dependencies -- Chapter 15 The Utility of Cohort Change Ratios -- Chapter 16 Concluding Remarks -- Subject Index. . 330 $aThis textbook focuses on the cohort change ratio (CCR) method. It presents powerful, yet relatively simple ways to generate accurate demographic estimates and forecasts that are cost efficient and require fewer resources than other techniques. The concepts, analytical frameworks, and methodological tools presented do not require extensive knowledge of demographics, mathematics, or statistics. The demographic focus is on the characteristics of populations, especially age and sex composition, but these methods are applicable estimating and forecasting other characteristics and total population. The book contains more traditional applications such as the Hamilton-Perry method, but also includes new applications of the CCR method such as stable population theory. Real world empirical examples are provided for every application; along with excel files containing data and program code, which are accessible online. Topics covered include basic demographic measures, sources of demographic information, forecasting and estimating (both current and historical) populations, modifications to current methods, forecasting school enrollment and other characteristics, estimating life expectancy, stable population theory, decomposition of the CCR into its migration and mortality components, and the utility of the CCR. This textbook is designed to provide material for an advanced undergraduate or graduate course on demographic methods. It can also be used as a supplement for other courses including applied demography, business and economic forecasting and market research. 606 $aDemography 606 $aStatistics 606 $aMathematics 606 $aSocial sciences 606 $aDemography$3https://scigraph.springernature.com/ontologies/product-market-codes/X25000 606 $aStatistics for Social Sciences, Humanities, Law$3https://scigraph.springernature.com/ontologies/product-market-codes/S17040 606 $aMathematics in the Humanities and Social Sciences$3https://scigraph.springernature.com/ontologies/product-market-codes/M32000 615 0$aDemography. 615 0$aStatistics. 615 0$aMathematics. 615 0$aSocial sciences. 615 14$aDemography. 615 24$aStatistics for Social Sciences, Humanities, Law. 615 24$aMathematics in the Humanities and Social Sciences. 676 $a300 700 $aBaker$b Jack$4aut$4http://id.loc.gov/vocabulary/relators/aut$01063722 702 $aSwanson$b David A$4aut$4http://id.loc.gov/vocabulary/relators/aut 702 $aTayman$b Jeff$4aut$4http://id.loc.gov/vocabulary/relators/aut 702 $aTedrow$b Lucky M$4aut$4http://id.loc.gov/vocabulary/relators/aut 801 0$bMiAaPQ 801 1$bMiAaPQ 801 2$bMiAaPQ 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910252711903321 996 $aCohort Change Ratios and their Applications$92534140 997 $aUNINA