LEADER 04097oam 2200613zu 450 001 9910220144303321 005 20210807005053.0 010 $a0-8330-8981-1 035 $a(CKB)3710000000413657 035 $a(SSID)ssj0001514852 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)12590632 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0001514852 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)11481411 035 $a(PQKB)10438634 035 $a(oapen)doab115444 035 $a(EXLCZ)993710000000413657 100 $a20160829d2014 uy 101 0 $aeng 135 $aurmn|---annan 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 14$aThe future of driving in developing countries 210 $cRAND Corporation$d2014 210 31$a[Place of publication not identified]$cRand Corporation$d2014 215 $a1 online resource 300 $aBibliographic Level Mode of Issuance: Monograph 311 08$a0-8330-8604-9 327 $aIntroduction -- Evolutionary Paths of Mobility -- Study Methodology -- Historical Mobility Development in Four OECD Countries -- Comparison of Factors Among the Four OECD Countries -- Future Mobility Paths of Brazil, Russia, India, and China -- Conclusions -- Appendix A: Data Sources -- Appendix B: Country Travel Demand Experts -- Appendix C: Factor Fact Sheets and Flag-Game Results -- Appendix D: Estimating the Parameters for a Gompertz Model of Vehicle-Kilometers Traveled Per Capita. 330 3 $a"The level of automobility, defined as travel in personal vehicles, is often seen as a function of income: The higher a country's per capita income, the greater the amount of driving. However, levels of automobility vary quite substantially between countries even at similar levels of economic development. This suggests that countries follow different mobility paths. The research detailed in this report sought to answer three questions: What are the factors besides economic development that affect automobility? What is their influence on automobility? What will happen to automobility in developing countries if they progress along similar paths as developed countries? To answer these questions, the authors developed a methodology to identify these factors, model their impact on developed countries, and forecast automobility (as defined by per capita vehicle-kilometers traveled [VKT]) in four developing countries. This methodology draws on quantitative analysis of historical automobility development in four country case studies (the United States, Australia, Germany, and Japan) that represent very different levels of per capita automobility, in combination with data derived from an expert-based qualitative approach. The authors used the latter to assess how these experiences may affect the future of automobility in the BRIC countries: Brazil, Russia, India, and China. According to this analysis, automobility levels in the four BRIC countries will fall between those of the United States (which has the highest per capita VKT level of the four case studies) and Japan (which has the lowest). Brazil is forecasted to have the highest per capita VKT and India the lowest." -- "Abstract" on web page. 606 $aTransportation, Automotive$xSocial aspects$zDeveloping countries 606 $aAutomobiles$zDeveloping countries 606 $aAutomobile drivers$zDeveloping countries 606 $aBusiness & Economics$2HILCC 606 $aTransportation Economics$2HILCC 615 0$aTransportation, Automotive$xSocial aspects 615 0$aAutomobiles 615 0$aAutomobile drivers 615 7$aBusiness & Economics 615 7$aTransportation Economics 700 $aEcola$b Liisa$0913864 702 $aRohr$b Charlene 702 $aRohr$b Charlene 702 $aZmud$b Johanna 702 $aZmud$b Johanna 702 $aKuhnimhof$b Tobias 702 $aPhleps$b Peter 712 02$aRand Transportation, Space, and Technology (Program) 712 02$aRand Corporation 801 0$bPQKB 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910220144303321 996 $aThe future of driving in developing countries$92883571 997 $aUNINA