LEADER 05452oam 2200685z- 450 001 9910220139203321 005 20170919015201.0 010 $a0-8330-9347-9 035 $a(CKB)3710000000595138 035 $a(EXLCZ)993710000000595138 100 $a20160307c2015uuuu -u- - 101 0 $aeng 200 10$aFrom negative to positive stability $ehow the Syrian refugee crisis can improve Jordan's outlook /$fBen Connable 210 $cRAND Corporation 311 $a0-8330-9087-9 327 $tPreface --$tFigures and Table --$tSummary --$tChapter One: Introduction to the Status of Syrian Refugees as of Late 2014:$gGeographic Orientation and Syrian Refugees as of Late 2014 --$gSyrian Refugees in Jordan: Late 2014 --$gMethodology --$gOrganization of This Report --$tChapter Two: Assessment of Stability and Strategic Challenges: Late 2014:$gJordan's Stability as of Late 2014 --$gSecurity from External and Internal Threats --$gPolitical Turmoil and the Impact of the Arab Spring --$gWater Shortages Contribute to Economic and Social Unease --$gEconomic and Financial Dependencies --$gExisting Refugee and Nonnational Worker Populations --$gSummary of Stability Issues as of Late 2014 --$tChapter Three: Economic Factors and Forecasted Impact:$gCurrent Economic Status and Economic Integration of Syrian Refugees --$gForecast: The Impact of Syrian Refugees on Jordan's Economic Stability --$tChapter Four: Social Factors and Forecasted Impact:$gAssessing Late-2014 Social Integration and Social Impacts of Syrian Refugees --$gForecast: Impact of Syrian Refugees on Jordan's Social Stability --$tChapter Five: Security Assessment and Forecasted Impact:$gImpact of Syrian Refugees on Jordanian Security as of Late 2014 --$gForecast: The Impact of Syrian Refugees on Jordan's Security --$tChapter Six: Conclusion, Summary Forecast, and Black Swan Warnings:$gBlack Swans --$tAbbreviations --$tBibliography. 330 $a"As of late 2014, many American and Jordanian experts believe Jordan to be stable. Yet while Jordan is stable, it faces a range of existing and emerging challenges. These include chronic unemployment, sporadic political unrest, budget deficits, a water shortage, and geographically isolated yet troubling internal security concerns. The Syrian refugee crisis both exacerbates these challenges and offers opportunities to the government of Jordan. If the Syrian refugees remain relatively content and continue to assimilate into northern and central Jordan, they might directly benefit the Jordanian economy by stimulating growth. Donors and lenders have increased their support to Jordan, in turn offering the government an opportunity to improve the lives of both Syrian refugees and Jordanian citizens. Most important, Jordan benefits from what one expert terms negative stability: Jordanian citizens might be dissatisfied with many aspects of their government, but the chaos in neighboring states has thus far dissuaded Jordanians from pursuing civil or violent actions that might destabilize Jordan. Jordanians do not want their country to look like Syria, Iraq, or Egypt. Jordan is likely to undergo further and perhaps unforeseen challenges in 2015 and 2016, but it has the opportunity to alleviate many of its enduring challenges. If Jordan wisely invests forthcoming international refugee support, it has the opportunity to shift popular outlook from negative to positive--and more optimistic--stability. This report's analytic forecasts should help the United States determine how to support Jordan as it faces the Syrian refugee crisis"--Publisher's description. 517 $aFrom Negative to Positive Stability 606 $aRefugees$zSyria 606 $aForced migration$zSyria 606 $aHumanitarian assistance$zJordan 606 $aNational security$zJordan$y21st century 606 $aInternational relief$zJordan 606 $aEmigration and immigration law$zJordan 606 $aEconomic history$2fast$3(OCoLC)fst00901974 606 $aEmigration and immigration law$2fast$3(OCoLC)fst00908736 606 $aForced migration$2fast$3(OCoLC)fst00931606 606 $aHumanitarian assistance$2fast$3(OCoLC)fst00963553 606 $aInternational relief$2fast$3(OCoLC)fst00977110 606 $aNational security$2fast$3(OCoLC)fst01033711 606 $aRefugees$2fast$3(OCoLC)fst01092797 606 $aSocial conditions$2fast$3(OCoLC)fst01919811 607 $aSyria$xHistory$yCivil War, 2011- 607 $aJordan$xEconomic conditions$y21st century 607 $aJordan$xSocial conditions$y21st century 607 $aJordan$2fast 607 $aSyria$2fast 608 $aHistory.$2fast 615 0$aRefugees 615 0$aForced migration 615 0$aHumanitarian assistance 615 0$aNational security 615 0$aInternational relief 615 0$aEmigration and immigration law 615 7$aEconomic history. 615 7$aEmigration and immigration law. 615 7$aForced migration. 615 7$aHumanitarian assistance. 615 7$aInternational relief. 615 7$aNational security. 615 7$aRefugees. 615 7$aSocial conditions. 676 $a362.87095695 700 $aConnable$b Ben$0924041 712 02$aRand Corporation, 712 02$aNational Defense Research Institute (U.S.), 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910220139203321 996 $aFrom negative to positive stability$92886752 997 $aUNINA