LEADER 05711nam 2200721 a 450 001 9910219986903321 005 20200520144314.0 010 $a1-281-18081-5 010 $a9786611180812 010 $a0-8330-4238-6 035 $a(CKB)1000000000481428 035 $a(EBL)322526 035 $a(OCoLC)476119871 035 $a(SSID)ssj0000130556 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11129143 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000130556 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)10102314 035 $a(PQKB)11433185 035 $a(Au-PeEL)EBL322526 035 $a(CaPaEBR)ebr10225492 035 $a(Au-PeEL)EBL4969967 035 $a(CaONFJC)MIL118081 035 $a(OCoLC)1027161918 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC322526 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC4969967 035 $a(EXLCZ)991000000000481428 100 $a20070628d2007 uy 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aurcn||||||||| 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 10$aCoping with Iran $econfrontation, containment, or engagement? : a conference report /$fJames Dobbins, Sarah Harting, Dalia Dassa Kaye 205 $a1st ed. 210 $aSanta Monica, CA $cRAND National Security Research Division$d2007 215 $a1 online resource (107 p.) 225 1 $aConference proceedings 300 $a"CF-237-NSRD"--P. [4] of cover. 300 $aSummary of a conference held by the RAND Corporation on Mar. 21, 2007 in Washington, D.C. 311 $a0-8330-4187-8 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references (p. 87). 327 $aCover; PREFACE; CONTENTS; FIGURES; CONFERENCE SUMMARY; ACKNOWLEDGMENTS; ABBREVIATIONS; INTRODUCTION; PANEL 1: INSIDE IRAN; PANEL MEMBERS; ROLE OF THE REGIME; HOW THE UNITED STATES MAY MISPERCEIVE IRANIAN POLITICS: SIX OBSERVATIONS; AYATOLLAH ALI KHAMENEI, IRAN'S NUCLEAR "CARPET," AND IRAQ; Final Thoughts: The Iranian Populace and Two Ticking Clocks; THE REGIME: DISAGREEMENT AND DISCORD BUT ALSO CONSENSUS?; QUESTION AND ANSWER SESSION; 1. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice's Trip to Turkey; 2. President Ahmadi-Nejad as a Political Liability 327 $a3. Statement by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei 4. Russia's Decision to Suspend Cooperation at Bushehr; 5. U.S. Congress and Iranian Parliamentarians; 6. Effect of Civil Action on U.S. Foreign Policy; 7. 2003 Proposal for a Grand Bargain; 8. Mujahedin-e Khalq Organization (MEK); PANEL 2: LOOKING AT TWO ALTERNATIVE FUTURES; PANEL MEMBERS; IRAN, THE UNITED STATES, AND NUCLEAR WEAPONS: AN EXAMINATION OF KEY POLICY ISSUES; Iran's Motivations for Acquiring Nuclear Weapons; Iran's Conventional Forces; Iran's "Strategic Loneliness"; A Nuclear-Armed Iran?; An Attack on Iran; Policy Directions 327 $aFIVE KEY POINTS POWERFUL DRIVERS, RISKS, AND POSSIBLE OUTCOMES; QUESTION AND ANSWER SESSION; 1. Effectiveness of Security Guarantees; 2. Lessons from History and Unintended Consequences; 3. Consortium Proposal; 4. Israel and the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons; CLOSING STATEMENT; AN IRANIAN PERSPECTIVE; PRESENTER AND RESPONDERS; IRAN'S NATIONAL SECURITY ENVIRONMENT; Regional Stability and Security; Weapons of Mass Destruction; Resolving the Iranian Nuclear Crisis; QUESTION AND ANSWER SESSION; 1. UNSC Resolution; 2. A Two-Month Suspension of Enrichment--but What Next? 327 $a3. Legitimacy of the UNSC Resolution4. "Suspension for Suspension"; 5. Iran's Role in Iraq; 6. March 2006 Offer by the Supreme Leader; 7. Regional Involvement in Iraq; 8. Iranian Reaction to Russian Suspension of Bushehr; 9. Location of General Ali Reza Askari; 10. Israel and Iranians in Custody in Iraq; 11. The Population's Rights in Iran; 12. Goal of the Regional Ministerial Meeting; 13. Hizballah and Hamas; 14. Helping Iraq Despite a Continued U.S. Presence; 15. Iran's View of a Consortium; PANEL 3: WHAT TO DO: PREEMPTION? CONTAINMENT? ENGAGEMENT?; PANEL MEMBERS 327 $aIRAQ OR IRAN: WHICH COMES FIRST?ELEMENTS OF A SUCCESSFUL DIPLOMATIC STRATEGY; ADDRESSING UNCERTAINTIES; WHERE TO NOW?; QUESTION AND ANSWER SESSION; 1. Iraq Study Group Report; 2. An Acceptable Outcome for Israel; 3. United States -- Aggressive Talk, but Carrying a Small Stick?; 4. Iran's Role in Iraq; 5. Should Congress Authorize the Use of Force?; 6. Lessons from Relations with China in the 1970's; 7. The IRGC and the Risk of Escalation; 8. The Role of Dissidents in Iran; A U.S. PERSPECTIVE; PRESENTER AND RESPONDERS; HOW THE U.S. GOVERNMENT VIEWS IRAN; QUESTION AND ANSWER SESSION 327 $a1. The Key to Successful Negotiations 330 $aOn March 21, 2007, the RAND Corporation held a public conference on Capitol Hill, "Coping with Iran: Confrontation, Containment, or Engagement?" featuring high-level experts and hosted by the director of the RAND International Security and Defense Policy Center. More than 300 guests attended, including former ambassadors, members of Congress and senior staffers, senior journalists, Pentagon officials, and numerous well-known Middle East analysts. Two high-level officials, Ambassador R. Nicholas Burns, Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs, and Ambassador Mohammad Javad Zarif, Iranian 410 0$aConference proceedings (Rand Corporation) 607 $aUnited States$xForeign relations$zIran$vCongresses 607 $aIran$xForeign relations$zUnited States$vCongresses 676 $a327.73055 700 $aDobbins$b James$f1942-$0913849 701 $aHarting$b Sarah$0936204 701 $aKaye$b Dalia Dassa$0910135 712 02$aRand Corporation. 801 0$bMiAaPQ 801 1$bMiAaPQ 801 2$bMiAaPQ 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910219986903321 996 $aCoping with Iran$92455052 997 $aUNINA