LEADER 05923nam 2200661 450 001 9910219977703321 005 20200520144314.0 010 $a0-8330-7679-5 010 $a0-8330-7680-9 035 $a(CKB)2670000000411822 035 $a(EBL)1365190 035 $a(OCoLC)818866398 035 $a(SSID)ssj0000870220 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11454743 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000870220 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)10826499 035 $a(PQKB)10210898 035 $a(Au-PeEL)EBL1365190 035 $a(CaPaEBR)ebr10818055 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC1365190 035 $a(EXLCZ)992670000000411822 100 $a20121116d2012 uy| 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aur|n|---||||| 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 10$aCrisis and escalation in cyberspace /$fMartin C. Libicki 210 1$aSanta Monica, CA :$cRAND, Project Air Force,$d2012. 215 $a1 online resource (279 p.) 300 $a"Prepared for the United States Air Force." 300 $a"Approved for public release; distribution unlimited." 311 $a0-8330-7678-7 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references (pages 163-172). 327 $aAvoiding crises by creating norms -- Narratives, dialogues, and signaling -- Escalation management -- Strategic stability -- Conclusions and recommendations for the Air Force -- Introduction -- Some hypothetical crises -- Mutual mistrust is likely to characterize a cyber crisis -- States may have room for maneuver in a cyber crisis -- A note on methodology -- Purpose and organization -- Avoiding crises by creating norms -- What kind of norms might be useful? -- Enforce laws against hacking -- Disassociate from freelance hackers -- Discourage commercial espionage -- Be careful about the obligation to suppress cyber traffic -- How do we enforce norms? -- Confidence-building measures -- Norms for victims of cyberattacks -- Norms for war? -- Deception -- Military necessity and collateral damage -- Proportionality -- Reversibility -- Conclusions -- Narratives, dialogue, and signals -- Narratives to promote control -- A narrative framework for cyberspace -- Victimization, attribution, retaliation, and aggression -- Victimization -- Attribution -- Retaliation -- Aggression -- Emollients: narratives to walk back a crisis -- We did nothing -- Well, at least not on our orders -- It was an accident -- This is nothing new -- At least it does not portend anything -- Broader considerations -- Signals -- Ambiguity in signaling -- Signaling resolve -- Signaling that cyber combat is not kinetic combat -- Conclusions -- Escalation management -- Motives for escalation -- Does escalation matter? -- Escalation risks -- Escalation risks in phase -- Escalation risks for contained local conflicts -- Escalation risks for uncontained conflicts -- Managing proxy cyberattacks -- What hidden combatants imply for horizontal escalation -- Managing overt proxy conflict -- The difficulties of tit-for-tat management -- The importance of pre-planning -- Disjunctions among effort, effect, and perception -- Inadvertent escalation -- Escalation into kinetic warfare -- Escalation into economic warfare -- Sub rosa escalation -- Managing the third-party problem -- The need for a clean shot -- Inference and narrative -- Command and control -- Commanders -- Those they command -- Conclusions -- Implications for strategic stability -- Translating sources of cold war instability to cyberspace -- What influence can cyberwar have if nuclear weapons exist? -- Can cyberwar disarm another state's nuclear capabilities? -- Can cyberwar disarm another states cyberwarriors? -- Does cyberwar lend itself to alert-reaction cycles? -- Are cyberdefenses inherently destabilizing? -- Would a cyberspace arms races be destabilizing? -- Misperception as a source of crisis -- Side takes great exception to cyberespionage -- Defenses are misinterpreted as preparations for war -- Too much confidence in attribution -- Too much confidence in or fear of pre-emption -- Supposedly risk-free cyberattacks -- Neutrality -- Conclusions -- Can cyber crises be managed? -- A. Distributed denial-of-service attacks -- B. Overt, obvious, and covert cyberattacks and responses -- Can good cyberdefenses discourage attacks? -- Bibliography -- Figures -- Figure 1: Alternative postures for a master cyber narrative -- Figure 2: Sources of imprecision in tit for tat -- Figure 3: An inadvertent path to mutual escalation -- Figure A-1: Configuring networks to limit the damage of DDoS attacks -- Table -- Overt, obvious, and covert cyberattacks and responses. 330 $aThe chances are growing that the United States will find itself in a crisis in cyberspace--the escalation of tensions associated with a major cyberattack, suspicions that one has taken place, or fears that it might do so soon. Such crises can be managed by taking steps to reduce the incentives for other states to step in, controlling the narrative, understanding the stability parameters of the crises, and recognizing escalation risks. 606 $aInformation warfare$zUnited States 606 $aEscalation (Military science) 606 $aCyberspace$xSecurity measures 606 $aCrisis management$xGovernment policy$zUnited States 606 $aCyberterrorism$xPrevention 606 $aConflict management 608 $aElectronic books. 615 0$aInformation warfare 615 0$aEscalation (Military science) 615 0$aCyberspace$xSecurity measures. 615 0$aCrisis management$xGovernment policy 615 0$aCyberterrorism$xPrevention. 615 0$aConflict management. 676 $a358.4/141 700 $aLibicki$b Martin C$0877014 801 0$bMiAaPQ 801 1$bMiAaPQ 801 2$bMiAaPQ 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910219977703321 996 $aCrisis and escalation in cyberspace$92475921 997 $aUNINA