LEADER 03648nam 2200661Ia 450 001 9910219977303321 005 20240617065541.0 010 $a0-8330-7905-0 010 $a0-8330-7903-4 010 $a0-8330-7904-2 035 $a(CKB)2670000000417959 035 $a(EBL)1365211 035 $a(SSID)ssj0000980683 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11505150 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000980683 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)10958124 035 $a(PQKB)11617751 035 $a(Au-PeEL)EBL1365211 035 $a(CaPaEBR)ebr10744765 035 $a(OCoLC)865329698 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC1365211 035 $a(oapen)doab115053 035 $a(EXLCZ)992670000000417959 100 $a20130423d2013 uy 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aur|n|---||||| 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 10$aAre U.S. military interventions contagious over time? $eintervention timing and its implications for force planning /$fJennifer Kavanagh 205 $a1st ed. 210 $aSanta Monica, CA $cRAND Corporation$d2013 215 $a1 online resource (77 p.) 300 $a"Prepared for the United States Army." 300 $a"RAND Arroyo Center." 311 08$a0-8330-7901-8 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references. 327 $aCover; Title Page; Copyright; Preface; Contents; Figures; Tables; Summary; Acknowledgements; Abbreviations; Chapter One: Introduction; Chapter Two: Defining Temporal Dependence: A Review of Existing Evidence; What Is Temporal Dependence?; What Does the Literature Say About Intervention Timing and Temporal Dependence?; Interventions and Timing; Predictors of Armed Conflict and Political Instability.; Temporal Dependence in Financial Markets; Summary; Chapter Three: Testing for Temporal Dependence; Methodology; Data and Operationalization; Interventions; Armed Conflict; Results 327 $aWhat Drives Armed Conflict?Testing for Robustness: Linear and ARIMA Specifications; Summary; Is There Temporal Dependence Between Military Deployments?; Testing for Robustness: Linear and ARIMA Specifications; Summary; Chapter Four: Implications for Force Planning; Will Temporal Dependence Affect Force Requirements?; Mechanisms of Temporal Dependence; How Can Temporal Dependence Be Integrated into the Planning Process?; Assessing the Relevance of Temporal Clustering; Building Temporal Dependence into Force Planning; Avoiding Clustered Interventions; Chapter Five: Conclusion and Next Steps 327 $aBibliography 330 $aCurrent DoD force planning processes assume that U.S. military interventions are serially independent over time. This report challenges this assumption, arguing that interventions occur in temporally dependent clusters in which the likelihood of an intervention depends on interventions in the recent past. Integrating the concept of temporal dependence into DoD planning processes could help planners develop more appropriate force estimates. 606 $aIntervention (International law) 606 $aIntervention (International law)$vCase studies 606 $aMilitary planning$zUnited States 607 $aUnited States$xMilitary policy$vCase studies 615 0$aIntervention (International law) 615 0$aIntervention (International law) 615 0$aMilitary planning 676 $a355/.033573 700 $aKavanagh$b Jennifer$f1981-$0879930 712 02$aArroyo Center. 801 0$bMiAaPQ 801 1$bMiAaPQ 801 2$bMiAaPQ 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910219977303321 996 $aAre U.S. military interventions contagious over time$92025936 997 $aUNINA