LEADER 04026oam 2200589zu 450 001 9910219975403321 005 20210807004305.0 010 $a0-8330-8364-3 035 $a(CKB)3360000000476937 035 $a(SSID)ssj0001552252 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)16171533 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0001552252 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)14812714 035 $a(PQKB)10652015 035 $a(EXLCZ)993360000000476937 100 $a20160829d2013 uy 101 0 $aeng 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 10$aCounterinsurgency scorecard : Afghanistan in early 2013 relative to insurgencies since World War II 210 31$a[Place of publication not identified]$cRand Corporation$d2013 300 $aBibliographic Level Mode of Issuance: Monograph 311 $a0-8330-8176-4 327 $aFindings from previous research on insurgency -- The counterinsurgency scorecard -- Scoring Afghanistan in 2013 -- Detailed factors in the current case -- Afghanistan in comparison to specific historical cases -- 2013 results compared with 2011 results -- Conclusions and recommendations. 330 $aThe RAND report Paths to Victory: Lessons from Modern Insurgencies added 41 new cases to a previously studied set of 30 insurgencies, examining the 71 insurgencies begun and completed worldwide between World War II and 2008 to analyze correlates of success in counterinsurgency (COIN). A key finding of this research was that a case's score on a scorecard of 15 equally weighted good and 11 equally weighted bad COIN factors and practices perfectly discriminated the outcomes of the cases analyzed. That is, the balance of good and bad factors and practices correlated with either a COIN win (insurgency loss) or a COIN loss (insurgency win) in the overall case. Using the scorecard approach as its foundation, a RAND study sought to apply the findings to the case of Afghanistan in early 2013. The effort involved an expert elicitation, or Delphi exercise, in which experts were asked to make "worst-case" assessments of the factors to complete the scorecard for ongoing operations in Afghanistan. The consensus results revealed that early 2013 Afghanistan ranks among the historical COIN winners, but its score is equal to those of the lowest-scoring historical wins. This tenuous position points to several areas in need of improvement, but particularly the need to disrupt the flow of insurgent support and the need for the Afghan government and Afghan security forces to better demonstrate their commitment and motivation. Afghanistan in early 2011 scored in the middle of the historical record in terms of COIN wins and losses, suggesting an overall improvement in COIN progress in that conflict by early 2013. However, conditions may change as coalition forces prepare to hand over responsibility for the country's security to the Afghan government and Afghan security forces in 2014. 517 1 $aAfghanistan in early 2013 relative to insurgencies since World War II 606 $aCounterinsurgency$zAfghanistan$vCase studies 606 $aCounterinsurgency 606 $aMilitary Science - General$2HILCC 606 $aMilitary & Naval Science$2HILCC 606 $aLaw, Politics & Government$2HILCC 607 $aAfghanistan$2fast 608 $aCase studies.$2fast 615 0$aCounterinsurgency 615 0$aCounterinsurgency 615 7$aMilitary Science - General 615 7$aMilitary & Naval Science 615 7$aLaw, Politics & Government 700 $aPaul$b Christopher$0905756 702 $aDunigan$b Molly 702 $aGrill$b Beth 702 $aClarke$b Colin P 702 $aGrill$b Beth 702 $aClarke$b Colin P 712 02$aRand Corporation 712 02$aNational Defense Research Institute (U.S.) 801 0$bPQKB 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910219975403321 996 $aCounterinsurgency scorecard : Afghanistan in early 2013 relative to insurgencies since World War II$92890382 997 $aUNINA