LEADER 04337nam 2200493 450 001 9910219968203321 005 20170919015209.0 010 $a0-8330-9383-5 035 $a(CKB)3710000000595102 035 $a(WaSeSS)IndRDA00120747 035 $a(EXLCZ)993710000000595102 100 $a20200605d2016 uy 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aur||||||||||| 181 $ctxt$2rdacontent 182 $cc$2rdamedia 183 $acr$2rdacarrier 200 10$aCounterinsurgency scorecard update $eAfghanistan in early 2015 relative to insurgencies since World War II /$fChristopher Paul, Colin P. Clarke 210 1$aSanta Monica, California :$cRAND Corporation,$d2016. 215 $a1 online resource (50 pages) 225 1 $aResearch report 311 $a0-8330-9262-6 327 $aCounterinsurgency Scorecard Update: Afghanistan in Early 2015 Relative to Insurgencies Since World War II -- Findings from Previous Research on Insurgency -- Counterinsurgency Scorecard -- Endgames for Insurgencies: Getting to Negotiated Settlements -- Scoring the Ongoing Conflict in Afghanistan -- Using the Delphi Method -- Building on Previous Scorecards -- 2015 Scorecard Results -- Specific Factors in the Current Case -- Notes on Factors Present or Absent in 2015 but Tenuous in the Future -- 2015 Results Compared with Previous Results and Analyses -- What Improved? -- What Declined? -- What Stayed the Same? -- Scorecard and Duration of Conflict -- Summary of Scorecard Analyses -- Prospects for a Negotiated Settlement -- Conclusions and Recommendations -- APPENDIX : Detail of the Expert Elicitation. 330 $a"Previous RAND research examined 71 insurgencies begun and completed worldwide between World War II and 2010 to analyze correlates of success in counterinsurgency (COIN). A key finding was that a case's score on a scorecard of 15 equally weighted good and 11 equally weighted bad COIN factors and practices corresponded perfectly with the outcomes of the cases analyzed. That is, the balance of good and bad factors and practices was always positive when the outcome was a COIN win (insurgent loss) and always negative when the outcome was a COIN loss (insurgent win). Using the scorecard approach as its foundation, a RAND study sought to apply the findings to the case of Afghanistan in 2015. The effort involved an expert elicitation in which experts were asked to make "worst-case" assessments of the factors to complete the scorecard for ongoing operations in Afghanistan. It was the third Afghanistan-focused exercise conducted with the scorecard, allowing rough comparisons with scores assigned by expert panels in 2011 and 2013. The 2015 consensus results indicated that Afghanistan continues to have a positive score, though its score is tied with the lowest-scoring historical wins. Two factors remained absent in Afghanistan in 2015 but essential to success in historical COIN campaigns: disrupting flows of tangible support to the insurgents and a demonstration (and improvement) of commitment and motivation on the part of the Afghan National Security Forces, the primary COIN force since the coalition drawdown. Despite some potentially positive developments resulting from the 2014 election of a new government in Afghanistan, it appears that the most promising end to the conflict will be a negotiated settlement in which the Afghan government makes some concessions to the insurgents and in which external powers, including the United States and Pakistan, help broker a satisfactory power-sharing agreement that brings greater stability to the country"--Publisher's description. 410 0$aResearch report (Rand Corporation) 606 $aCounterinsurgency$zAfghanistan$vCase studies 606 $aCounterinsurgency$zAfghanistan 606 $aAsymmetric warfare$zAfghanistan 607 $aAfghanistan$2fast 608 $aCase studies.$2fast 608 $aHistory.$2fast 608 $aCase studies.$2lcgft 615 0$aCounterinsurgency 615 0$aCounterinsurgency 615 0$aAsymmetric warfare 676 $a958.10474 700 $aPaul$b Christopher$0905756 702 $aClarke$b Colin P. 801 0$bWaSeSS 801 1$bWaSeSS 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910219968203321 996 $aCounterinsurgency scorecard update$92974941 997 $aUNINA