LEADER 04321nam 22006014a 450 001 9910219964003321 005 20200520144314.0 010 $a1-282-45150-2 010 $a9786612451508 010 $a0-8330-3604-1 035 $a(CKB)111090529190260 035 $a(EBL)197476 035 $a(OCoLC)475901580 035 $a(SSID)ssj0000153780 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11137310 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000153780 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)10393479 035 $a(PQKB)11380994 035 $a(Au-PeEL)EBL197476 035 $a(CaPaEBR)ebr10056144 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC197476 035 $a(EXLCZ)99111090529190260 100 $a20030130d2003 uy 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aurcn||||||||| 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 00$aFault lines in China's economic terrain /$fCharles Wolf, Jr. ... [et al.] 205 $a1st ed. 210 $aSanta Monica, CA $cRAND$d2003 215 $a1 online resource (237 p.) 300 $a"Prepared for the Office of Net Assessment, Dept. of Defense and the Smith Richardson Foundation." 311 $a0-8330-3344-1 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references (p. 181-194) and index. 327 $aCOVER; PREFACE; CONTENTS; FIGURES; TABLES; SUMMARY; ACKNOWLEDGMENTS; ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS; Chapter One - POTENTIAL ADVERSITIES CONFRONTING CHINA'S CONTINUED ECONOMIC GROWTH; PART I - CHINA'S INSTITUTIONAL AND STRUCTURAL FAULT LINES; Chapter Two - MASSIVE UNEMPLOYMENT AND RURAL POVERTY; Chapter Three - ECONOMIC EFFECTS OF CORRUPTION; PART II - SECTORAL FAULT LINES; Chapter Four - EPIDEMIC DISEASE: A WILD CARD IN CHINA'S ECONOMIC FUTURE?; CHINA'S HEALTH PROGRESS SINCE THE "LIBERATION": A LONG MARCH AGAINST INFECTIOUS AND PARASITIC DISEASE 327 $aCHINA'S CURRENT HEALTH PROFILE IN INTERNATIONAL AND GEOGRAPHIC PERSPECTIVE PROSPECTS FOR EPIDEMIC DISEASE IN CONTEMPORARY CHINA: THE RISKS OF BEHAVIOR-BORNE COMMUNICABLE ILLNESSES; MODELING POSSIBLE TRAJECTORIES FOR AN HIV EPIDEMIC IN CHINA; ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS FOR CHINA OF HIV"BREAKOUT""; Chapter Five - WATER RESOURCES AND POLLUTION; ESTIMATING WATER SUPPLY AND DEMAND; IDENTIFYING THE CONSEQUENCES OF FLOOD, WATER SHORTAGE, AND POLLUTION ON THE ECONOMY; ALTERNATIVES TO ABATE THE PROBLEM, AND THE EXPECTED COST AND BENEFITS; ECONOMIC AND SECURITY IMPLICATIONS 327 $aChapter Six - GDP EFFECTS OF AN ENERGY PRICE SHOCK SOME BASIC DATA ON THE CHINESE ENERGY SECTOR AND CHINESE GDP; OIL PRICE EFFECTS OF A "SEVERE" OIL SUPPLY DISRUPTION; EFFECTS ON CHINESE GDP; PART III - FINANCIAL FAULT LINES; Chapter Seven - CHINA'S FRAGILE FINANCIAL SYSTEM AND THE STATE-OWNED ENTERPRISES; AN INEFFECTUAL CENTRAL BANK; A FRAGILE COMMERCIAL BANKING SYSTEM; UNREGULATED FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS; ADVERSE SCENARIOS: FINANCIAL CRISES AND SLACK ECONOMIC GROWTH; Chapter Eight - POSSIBLE SHRINKAGE OF FOREIGN CAPITAL INFLOWS; INTRODUCTION: SOME RELEVANT BACKGROUND 327 $aWHAT WILL AFFECT FDI IN CHINA IN THE 2002-2010 PERIOD? EFFECTS OF FDI ON CHINA'S ECONOMIC GROWTH; CONCLUSIONS; PART IV - SECURITY FAULT LINES; Chapter Nine - TAIWAN AND OTHER POTENTIAL CONFLICTS; BACKGROUND AND CURRENT STATUS; THE POSSIBILITY OF SERIOUS DETERIORATION FROM THE STATUS QUO; OTHER CONFLICT POSSIBILITIES; Chapter Ten - CONCLUSIONS: FAULT LINES IN CHINA'S ECONOMIC TERRAIN; FINDINGS AND BOTTOM LINES; EPILOGUE; BIBLIOGRAPHY; ABOUT THE AUTHORS; INDEX 330 $aThe authors consider how and by how much China?s stellar economic performance might be impaired by eight potential adversities that China may face in the next decade: unemployment, poverty, and social unrest; corruption; HIV/AIDS and epidemic diseases; water resource problems and pollution; energy consumption and prices; the fragile financial system and state-owned enterprises; curtailed foreign direct investment; and serious military conflicts. 606 $aPublic health$zChina 607 $aChina$xEconomic conditions$y2000- 607 $aChina$xSocial conditions$y2000- 615 0$aPublic health 676 $a330.951 701 $aWolf$b Charles$f1924-$0125219 801 0$bMiAaPQ 801 1$bMiAaPQ 801 2$bMiAaPQ 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910219964003321 996 $aFault lines in China's economic terrain$92009093 997 $aUNINA