LEADER 05111nam 2200637Ia 450 001 9910219962403321 005 20200520144314.0 010 $a1-282-45120-0 010 $a9786612451201 010 $a0-8330-4834-1 010 $a1-59875-119-0 035 $a(CKB)1000000000345947 035 $a(EBL)227780 035 $a(OCoLC)559034960 035 $a(SSID)ssj0000337621 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11258527 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000337621 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)10293424 035 $a(PQKB)11637341 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC3031584 035 $a(EXLCZ)991000000000345947 100 $a20020808d2002 uy 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aur|n|---||||| 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 10$aFaultlines of conflict in Central Asia and the south Caucasus $eimplications for the U.S. Army /$fOlga Oliker, Thomas Szayna 210 $aSanta Monica, CA $cRAND$d2002 215 $a1 online resource (409 p.) 300 $a"MR-1598." 311 $a0-8330-3260-7 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references. 327 $aCover; Preface; Contents; Figures; Tables; Summary; Acknowledgments; Chapter One - Introducion: Thomas S. Szayna and Olga Oliker; The Context; Objectives, Approach, and Organization; Chapter Two - The Political Evolution of Central Asia and South Caucusus: Implications for Regional Security: Tanya Charlick-Paley with Phil Williams and Olga Oliker; Introduction; Political Institutionalization, Deprivation, and State and Societal Capcity: a Framework for Risk Analysis; Institutionalization in Central Asia and South Caucasus: Rating the Risk of Internal Conflict; The Role of Islam 327 $aPolitical Landscape: ConclusionsProximate Causes of Conflict in Central Asia and South Caucasus; The Ferghana Valley and Cross-Border Incursions; Nagorno-Karabakh; Georgian Separatists and Russia; Conclusions; Chapter Three - Some Economic Dimensions of Security in Central Asia and South Caucasus: Abraham S. Becker; Introduction; Regional Overview; Prospects; Chapter Four - Criminalization and Stability in Central Asia and South Caucasus: Phil Williams; Introduction; Characteristics of Central Asia and South Caucasus; The Criminalization Syndrome 327 $aGovernance and Criminalization in Central Asia and South CaucasusGovernance, Criminalization, and Instability in Central Asia and South Caucasus; Conclusions; Chapter Five - Natural Resources and Potential Conflict in the Caspian Sea Region: Sergej Mahnovski; Introduction; Fossil Fuel Production in the Caspian Sea Region; Natural Gas; Fossil Fuel Transport to Markets; Crude Oil; Natural Gas; Energy Relationships in the Caspian Sea Region; The Role of Water and Electricity in Central Asia; Can Natural Resources Contribute to Armed Conflict?; Some Potential Mitigating Factors to Conflict 327 $aConclusionsChapter Six - Potential for Ethnic Conflict in the Caspian Region: Thomas S. Szayna; Introduction; The Ethnic Factor in the CASC States; Preconditions for Ethnic Conflict; Kazakhstan: an Example of a Nationalizing State; Catalysts to Ethnic Violence; Potential for Ethnic Violence in the CASC Region; Final Observations; Chapter Seven - Conflict in Central Asia and South Caucasus: Implications of Foreign Interests and Involvement: Olga Oliker; Introduction; Russia; Turkey; The European Union and its Member States; Iran; China; Afghanistan; The United States; India and Pakistan 327 $aGreat Power Competition and Great Power ConflictThe Local Perspective; Conclusions; Chapter Eight - Central Asia and South Caucasus as an Area of Operations: Challenges and Constraints: William D. O'Malley; Introduction; Deployment; Deployment by Air; By Sea; Infrastructure: Transitioning the Central Asia and South Caucasus Region; Rail; Road; Water; Air: Possible Staging Locations for U.S. Forces Operating Within or Outside the Region; Intermediate Support Base Possibilities; Operational Environment; South Caucasus; Central Asia; Operational Environment: Implications 327 $aLocal Military Capabilities: Capacity and Interoperability Directions of Military Reform in Central Asia and South Caucasus 330 $aIn this volume, the authors identify and evaluate key faultlines in Central Asia and the South Caucasus and how they affect the likelihood and possible evolution of armed conflict in these regions. The analysis examines the ways in which the emergence of conflict could draw the US into the strife. 606 $aNational security$zSoutheast Asia 607 $aAsia, Central$xStrategic aspects 607 $aCaucasus$xStrategic aspects 607 $aUnited States$xMilitary policy 615 0$aNational security 676 $a355/.033058 700 $aOliker$b Olga$0905754 701 $aSzayna$b Thomas S.$f1960-$0942260 712 02$aRand Corporation. 801 0$bMiAaPQ 801 1$bMiAaPQ 801 2$bMiAaPQ 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910219962403321 996 $aFaultlines of conflict in Central Asia and the south Caucasus$92861811 997 $aUNINA