LEADER 03124oam 22004335 450 001 9910219652003321 005 20041025071452.0 035 $a(CKB)1000000000796686 035 $a(The World Bank)13754386 035 $a(US-djbf)13754386 035 $a(EXLCZ)991000000000796686 100 $a20041019d2004 uf 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aurcn||||||||| 181 $ctxt$2rdacontent 182 $cc$2rdamedia 183 $acr$2rdacarrier 200 10$aFinancial development, financial fragility, and growth /$fNorman Loayza and Romain Ranciere 210 1$a[Washington, D.C. :$cWorld Bank,$d2004] 225 1 $aPolicy research working paper ;$v3431 300 $aTitle from PDF file as viewed on 10/19/2004. 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references. 330 3 $a"Loayza and Rancire study the apparent contradiction between two strands of the literature on the effects of financial intermediation on economic activity. On the one hand, the empirical growth literature finds a positive effect of financial depth as measured by, for instance, private domestic credit and liquid liabilities (for example, Levine, Loayza, and Beck 2000). On the other hand, the banking and currency crisis literature finds that monetary aggregates, such as domestic credit, are among the best predictors of crises and their related economic downturns (for example, Kaminski and Reinhart 1999). The authors account for these contrasting effects based on the distinction between the short- and long-run impacts of financial intermediation. Working with a panel of cross-country and time-series observations, they estimate an encompassing model of short- and long-run effects using the Pooled Mean Group estimator developed by Pesaran, Shin, and Smith (1999). Their conclusion from this analysis is that a positive long-run relationship between financial intermediation and output growth coexists with a mostly negative short-run relationship. The authors further develop an explanation for these contrasting effects by relating them to recent theoretical models, by linking the estimated short-run effects to measures of financial fragility (namely, banking crises and financial volatility), and by jointly analyzing the effects of financial depth and fragility in classic panel growth regressions. This paper--a product of the Growth and Investment Team, Development Research Group--is part of a larger effort in the group to understand the sources of growth and volatility"--World Bank web site. 410 0$aPolicy research working papers ;$v3431. 410 0$aWorld Bank e-Library. 517 $aPolicy research working paper vol. 3431 606 $aFinancial services industry 606 $aIntermediation (Finance) 615 0$aFinancial services industry. 615 0$aIntermediation (Finance) 700 $aLoayza$b Norman$01140812 701 $aRanciere$b Romain$01168798 712 02$aWorld Bank. 801 0$bDLC 801 1$bDLC 906 $aJOURNAL 912 $a9910219652003321 996 $aFinancial development, financial fragility, and growth$93540455 997 $aUNINA