LEADER 04977oam 22013574 450 001 9910162944303321 005 20230808201439.0 010 $a1-4755-6768-5 010 $a1-4755-6770-7 035 $a(CKB)3710000001045031 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC4800299 035 $a(IMF)WPIEA2016251 035 $a(EXLCZ)993710000001045031 100 $a20020129d2016 uf 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aurcnu|||||||| 181 $2rdacontent 182 $2rdamedia 183 $2rdacarrier 200 10$aFinancial Information and Macroeconomic Forecasts /$fSophia Chen, Romain Ranciere 210 1$aWashington, D.C. :$cInternational Monetary Fund,$d2016. 215 $a1 online resource (34 pages) $cillustrations, tables 225 1 $aIMF Working Papers 311 $a1-4755-6317-5 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references. 330 3 $aWe study the forecasting power of financial variables for macroeconomic variables for 62 countries between 1980 and 2013. We find that financial variables such as credit growth, stock prices and house prices have considerable predictive power for macroeconomic variables at one to four quarters horizons. A forecasting model with financial variables outperforms the World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecasts in up to 85 percent of our sample countries at the four quarters horizon. We also find that cross-country panel models produce more accurate out-of-sample forecasts than individual country models. 410 0$aIMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;$vNo. 2016/251 606 $aEconomic forecasting 606 $aEconomic indicators 606 $aCredit 606 $aBanks and Banking$2imf 606 $aMacroeconomics$2imf 606 $aMoney and Monetary Policy$2imf 606 $aReal Estate$2imf 606 $aInvestments: Bonds$2imf 606 $aForecasting and Other Model Applications$2imf 606 $aFinancial Markets and the Macroeconomy$2imf 606 $aMoney and Interest Rates: Forecasting and Simulation$2imf 606 $aPrice Level$2imf 606 $aInflation$2imf 606 $aDeflation$2imf 606 $aHousing Supply and Markets$2imf 606 $aInterest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects$2imf 606 $aMonetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General$2imf 606 $aMacroeconomics: Consumption$2imf 606 $aSaving$2imf 606 $aWealth$2imf 606 $aGeneral Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data)$2imf 606 $aProperty & real estate$2imf 606 $aFinance$2imf 606 $aMonetary economics$2imf 606 $aInvestment & securities$2imf 606 $aAsset prices$2imf 606 $aHousing prices$2imf 606 $aYield curve$2imf 606 $aCredit$2imf 606 $aGovernment consumption$2imf 606 $aPrices$2imf 606 $aBond yields$2imf 606 $aFinancial institutions$2imf 606 $aMoney$2imf 606 $aNational accounts$2imf 606 $aHousing$2imf 606 $aInterest rates$2imf 606 $aConsumption$2imf 606 $aEconomics$2imf 606 $aBonds$2imf 607 $aUnited States$2imf 615 0$aEconomic forecasting. 615 0$aEconomic indicators. 615 0$aCredit. 615 7$aBanks and Banking 615 7$aMacroeconomics 615 7$aMoney and Monetary Policy 615 7$aReal Estate 615 7$aInvestments: Bonds 615 7$aForecasting and Other Model Applications 615 7$aFinancial Markets and the Macroeconomy 615 7$aMoney and Interest Rates: Forecasting and Simulation 615 7$aPrice Level 615 7$aInflation 615 7$aDeflation 615 7$aHousing Supply and Markets 615 7$aInterest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects 615 7$aMonetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General 615 7$aMacroeconomics: Consumption 615 7$aSaving 615 7$aWealth 615 7$aGeneral Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) 615 7$aProperty & real estate 615 7$aFinance 615 7$aMonetary economics 615 7$aInvestment & securities 615 7$aAsset prices 615 7$aHousing prices 615 7$aYield curve 615 7$aCredit 615 7$aGovernment consumption 615 7$aPrices 615 7$aBond yields 615 7$aFinancial institutions 615 7$aMoney 615 7$aNational accounts 615 7$aHousing 615 7$aInterest rates 615 7$aConsumption 615 7$aEconomics 615 7$aBonds 676 $a330.0112 700 $aChen$b Sophia$01208992 701 $aRanciere$b Romain$01168798 801 0$bDcWaIMF 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910162944303321 996 $aFinancial Information and Macroeconomic Forecasts$93650000 997 $aUNINA