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200 10$aShaping the next one hundred years $enew methods for quantitative, long-term policy analysis and bibliography /$fRobert J. Lempert, Steven W. Popper, Steven C. Bankes
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327   $aCOVER; PREFACE; CONTENTS; FIGURES; TABLES; SUMMARY; ACKNOWLEDGMENTS; ABBREVIATIONS; Chapter One - THE CHALLENGE OF LONG-TERM POLICY ANALYSIS; Chapter Two - A HISTORY OF THINKING ABOUT THE FUTURE; Chapter Three - ROBUST DECISIONMAKING; Chapter Four - A FRAMEWORK FOR SCENARIO GENERATION; Chapter Five - IMPLEMENTING ROBUST DECISIONMAKING; Chapter Six - POLICY-RELEVANT LONG-TERM POLICY ANALYSIS; Chapter Seven - CONCLUSION: MOVING PAST FAMILIAR SHORES; Appendix A - DESCRIPTION OF THE WONDERLAND SCENARIOGENERATOR; Appendix B - ASSESSING ROBUST STRATEGIES; BIBLIOGRAPHY
330   $aThe checkered history of predicting the future-e.g., ""Man will never fly""-has dissuaded policymakers from considering the long-term effects of decisions.  New analytic methods, enabled by modern computers, transform our ability to reason about the future.  The authors here demonstrate a quantitative approach to long-term policy analysis (LTPA).  Robust methods enable decisionmakers to examine a vast range of futures and design adaptive strategies to be robust across them.  Using sustainable development as an example, the authors discuss how these methods apply to LTPA and a wide range of dec
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