LEADER 04482oam 22011534 450 001 9910155012803321 005 20230913112557.0 010 $a1-4755-5323-4 010 $a1-4755-5329-3 035 $a(CKB)3710000000973037 035 $a(BIP)077138905 035 $a(IMF)1BRAEA2016002 035 $a(EXLCZ)993710000000973037 100 $a20020129d2016 uf 0 101 0 $aeng 181 $ctxt$2rdacontent 182 $cc$2rdamedia 183 $acr$2rdacarrier 200 10$aBrazil : $eSelected Issues 210 1$aWashington, D.C. :$cInternational Monetary Fund,$d2016. 215 $a1 online resource (159 p.) 225 1 $aIMF Staff Country Reports 311 $a1-4755-5322-6 330 3 $aThis paper assesses the importance of financial market developments for the business cycle in Brazil. The results underscore the importance of macro-financial linkages and highlight risks to the recovery going forward. Although some of the rise in credit growth in Brazil can be attributed to financial deepening and rising income levels, it may have implications for economic activity going forward. Cross-country evidence suggests that periods of easy financial conditions can amplify economic fluctuations and possibly lead to adverse economic outcomes. To explore the nexus between the financial cycle and business cycle, cycles are estimated using a variety of commonly-used statistical methods and with a small, semi-structural model of the Brazilian economy. An advantage of using the model-based approach is that financial and business cycles can be jointly estimated, allowing information from all key economic relationships to be used in a consistent way. Financial sector developments are found to be an important source of macroeconomic fluctuations. Financial accelerator models highlight the role of credit and asset prices in shaping the business cycle. 410 0$aIMF Staff Country Reports; Country Report ;$vNo. 2016/349 606 $aForeign Exchange$2imf 606 $aInvestments: Futures$2imf 606 $aMacroeconomics$2imf 606 $aMoney and Monetary Policy$2imf 606 $aPublic Finance$2imf 606 $aSocial Security and Public Pensions$2imf 606 $aPension Funds$2imf 606 $aNon-bank Financial Institutions$2imf 606 $aFinancial Instruments$2imf 606 $aInstitutional Investors$2imf 606 $aMacroeconomics: Consumption$2imf 606 $aSaving$2imf 606 $aWealth$2imf 606 $aPrice Level$2imf 606 $aInflation$2imf 606 $aDeflation$2imf 606 $aPensions$2imf 606 $aCurrency$2imf 606 $aForeign exchange$2imf 606 $aPublic finance & taxation$2imf 606 $aFinance$2imf 606 $aPension spending$2imf 606 $aFutures$2imf 606 $aExchange rates$2imf 606 $aAging$2imf 606 $aExpenditure$2imf 606 $aFinancial institutions$2imf 606 $aPrices$2imf 606 $aPopulation and demographics$2imf 606 $aDerivative securities$2imf 606 $aExpenditures, Public$2imf 606 $aConsumption$2imf 606 $aEconomics$2imf 606 $aBusiness cycles$2imf 607 $aBrazil$2imf 615 7$aForeign Exchange 615 7$aInvestments: Futures 615 7$aMacroeconomics 615 7$aMoney and Monetary Policy 615 7$aPublic Finance 615 7$aSocial Security and Public Pensions 615 7$aPension Funds 615 7$aNon-bank Financial Institutions 615 7$aFinancial Instruments 615 7$aInstitutional Investors 615 7$aMacroeconomics: Consumption 615 7$aSaving 615 7$aWealth 615 7$aPrice Level 615 7$aInflation 615 7$aDeflation 615 7$aPensions 615 7$aCurrency 615 7$aForeign exchange 615 7$aPublic finance & taxation 615 7$aFinance 615 7$aPension spending 615 7$aFutures 615 7$aExchange rates 615 7$aAging 615 7$aExpenditure 615 7$aFinancial institutions 615 7$aPrices 615 7$aPopulation and demographics 615 7$aDerivative securities 615 7$aExpenditures, Public 615 7$aConsumption 615 7$aEconomics 615 7$aBusiness cycles 801 0$bDcWaIMF 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910155012803321 996 $aBrazil$9467337 997 $aUNINA