LEADER 04304oam 22010334 450 001 9910154899303321 005 20250426110107.0 010 $a9781475545593 010 $a1475545592 010 $a9781475545609 010 $a1475545606 035 $a(CKB)4340000000018104 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC4745302 035 $a(IMF)WPIEA2016205 035 $aWPIEA2016205 035 $a(EXLCZ)994340000000018104 100 $a20020129d2016 uf 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aurcnu|||||||| 181 $2rdacontent 182 $2rdamedia 183 $2rdacarrier 200 10$aSurprise, Surprise : $eWhat Drives the Rand / U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate Volatility? /$fNasha Maveé, Roberto Perrelli, Axel Schimmelpfennig 210 1$aWashington, D.C. :$cInternational Monetary Fund,$d2016. 215 $a1 online resource (39 pages) $cillustrations, tables, graphs 225 1 $aIMF Working Papers 311 08$a9781475545425 311 08$a1475545428 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references. 330 3 $aThis paper investigates possible drivers of volatility in the South African rand since the onset of the global financial crisis. We assess the role played by local and international economic surprises, commodity price volatility, global market risk perceptions, and local political uncertainty. As a measure of rand volatility, the study uses a market-based implied volatility indicator for the rand / U.S. dollar exchange rate. Economic surprises?the difference between market expectations and data prints?are captured by Citi?s Economic Surprise Index which is available for South Africa and its main economic partners. The results suggest that rand volatility is mainly driven by commodity price volatility, and global market volatility, as well as domestic political uncertainty. In addition, economic surprises originating in the United States matter, but not those originating from South Africa, Europe, or China. 410 0$aIMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;$vNo. 2016/205 606 $aDollar, American 606 $aForeign exchange rates$zSouth Africa 606 $aMoney$zSouth Africa 606 $aFinance: General$2imf 606 $aForeign Exchange$2imf 606 $aInflation$2imf 606 $aMacroeconomics$2imf 606 $aInternational Finance Forecasting and Simulation$2imf 606 $aInternational Financial Markets$2imf 606 $aFinancial Forecasting and Simulation$2imf 606 $aCommodity Markets$2imf 606 $aPrice Level$2imf 606 $aDeflation$2imf 606 $aGeneral Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data)$2imf 606 $aCurrency$2imf 606 $aForeign exchange$2imf 606 $aFinance$2imf 606 $aExchange rates$2imf 606 $aCommodity price fluctuations$2imf 606 $aEmerging and frontier financial markets$2imf 606 $aExchange rate flexibility$2imf 606 $aPrices$2imf 606 $aFinancial markets$2imf 606 $aFinancial services industry$2imf 607 $aSouth Africa$2imf 615 0$aDollar, American. 615 0$aForeign exchange rates 615 0$aMoney 615 7$aFinance: General 615 7$aForeign Exchange 615 7$aInflation 615 7$aMacroeconomics 615 7$aInternational Finance Forecasting and Simulation 615 7$aInternational Financial Markets 615 7$aFinancial Forecasting and Simulation 615 7$aCommodity Markets 615 7$aPrice Level 615 7$aDeflation 615 7$aGeneral Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) 615 7$aCurrency 615 7$aForeign exchange 615 7$aFinance 615 7$aExchange rates 615 7$aCommodity price fluctuations 615 7$aEmerging and frontier financial markets 615 7$aExchange rate flexibility 615 7$aPrices 615 7$aFinancial markets 615 7$aFinancial services industry 676 $a332.4973 700 $aMaveé$b Nasha$01378329 701 $aPerrelli$b Roberto$01141566 701 $aSchimmelpfennig$b Axel$01190900 801 0$bDcWaIMF 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910154899303321 996 $aSurprise, Surprise$93649999 997 $aUNINA