LEADER 06805nam 2200709 450 001 9910145018003321 005 20221206233202.0 010 $a1-280-27546-4 010 $a9786610275465 010 $a0-470-35844-0 010 $a0-471-70772-4 010 $a1-60119-521-4 010 $a0-471-70771-6 024 7 $a10.1002/0471707724 035 $a(CKB)1000000000244166 035 $a(EBL)228459 035 $a(SSID)ssj0000072914 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11114098 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000072914 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)10102954 035 $a(PQKB)10977226 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC228459 035 $a(CaBNVSL)mat05238312 035 $a(IDAMS)0b000064810962ea 035 $a(IEEE)5238312 035 $a(OCoLC)85784993 035 $a(EXLCZ)991000000000244166 100 $a20151221d2005 uy 101 0 $aeng 135 $aur|n|---||||| 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 10$aRisk assessment of power systems $emodels, methods, and applications /$fWenyuan Li 210 1$aPiscataway, New Jersey :$cIEEE Press,$dc2005. 210 2$a[Piscataqay, New Jersey] :$cIEEE Xplore,$d[2005] 215 $a1 online resource (345 p.) 225 1 $aIEEE Press series on power engineering ;$v25 300 $aDescription based upon print version of record. 311 $a0-471-63168-X 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references and index. 327 $aPreface -- 1 Introduction -- 1.1 Risk in Power Systems -- 1.2 Basic Concepts of Power System Risk Assessment -- 1.3 Outline of the Book -- 2 Outage Models of System Components -- 2.1 Introduction -- 2.2 Models of Independent Outages -- 2.3 Models of Dependent Outages -- 2.4 Conclusions -- 3 Parameter Estimation in Outage Models -- 3.1 Introduction -- 3.2 Point Estimation of Mean and Variance of Failure Data -- 3.3 Interval Estimation of Mean and Variance of Failure Data -- 3.4 Estimating Failure Frequency of Individual Components -- 3.5 Estimating Probability from a Binomial Distribution -- 3.6 Experimental Distribution of Failure Data and Its Test -- 3.7 Estimating Parameters in Aging Failure Models -- 3.8 Conclusions -- 4 Elements of Risk Evaluation Methods -- 4.1 Introduction -- 4.2 Methods for Simple Systems -- 4.3 Methods for Complex Systems -- 4.4. Conclusions -- 5 Risk Evaluation Techniques for Power Systems -- 5.1 Introduction -- 5.2 Techniques Used in Generation-Demand Systems -- 5.3 Techniques Used in Radial Distribution Systems -- 5.4 Techniques Used in Substation Configurations -- 5.5 Techniques Used in Composite Generation and Transmission Systems -- 5.6 Conclusions -- 6 Application of Risk Evaluation to Transmission Development Planning -- 6.1 Introduction -- 6.2 Concept of Probabilistic Planning -- 6.3 Risk Evaluation Approach -- 6.4 Example 1: Selecting the Lowest-Cost Planning Alternative -- 6.5 Example 2: Applying Different Planning Criteria -- 6.6 Conclusions -- 7 Application of Risk Evaluation to Transmission Operation Planning -- 7.1 Introduction -- 7.2 Concept of Risk Evaluation in Operation Planning -- 7.3 Risk Evaluation Method -- 7.4 Example 1: Determining the Lowest-Risk Operation Mode -- 7.5 Example 2: A Simple Case by Hand Calculations -- 7.6 Conclusions -- 8 Application of Risk Evaluation to Generation Source Planning -- 8.1 Introduction -- 8.2 Procedure for Reliability Planning -- 8.3 Simulation of Generation and Risk Costs -- 8.4 Example 1: Selecting Location and Size of Cogenerators. 327 $a8.5 Example 2: Making a Decision to Retire a Local Generation Plant -- 8.6 Conclusions -- 9 Selection of Substation Configurations -- 9.1 Introduction -- 9.2 Load Curtailment Model -- 9.3 Risk Evaluation Approach -- 9.4 Example 1: Selecting Substation Configuration -- 9.5 Example 2: Selecting Transmission Line Arrangement Associated with Substations -- 9.6 Conclusions -- 10 Reliability-Centered Maintenance -- 10.1 Introduction -- 10.2 Basic Tasks in RCM -- 10.3 Example 1: Transmission Maintenance Scheduling -- 10.4 Example 2: Workforce Planning in Maintenance -- 10.5 Example 3: A Simple Case Performed by Hand Calculations -- 10.6 Conclusions -- 11 Probabilistic Spare-Equipment Analysis -- 11.1 Introduction -- 11.2 Spare-Equipment Analysis Based on Reliability Criteria -- 11.3 Spare-Equipment Analysis Using the Probabilistic Cost Method -- 11.4 Example 1: Determining Number and Timing of Spare Transformers -- 11.5 Example 2: Determining Redundancy Level of 500 kV Reactors -- 11.6 Conclusions -- 12 Reliability-Based Transmission-Service Pricing -- 12.1 Introduction -- 12.2 Basic Concept -- 12.3 Calculation Methods -- 12.4 Rate Design -- 12.5 Application Example -- 12.6 Conclusions -- 13 Probabilistic Transient Stability Assessment -- 13.1 Introduction -- 13.2 Probabilistic Modeling and Simulation Methods -- 13.3 Procedure -- 13.4 Examples -- 13.5 Conclusions -- Appendix A Basic Probability Concepts -- A.1 Probability Calculation Rules -- A.2 Random Variable and its Distribution -- A.3 Important Distributions in Risk Evaluation -- A.4 Numerical Characteristics -- Appendix B Elements of Monte Carlo Simulation -- B.1 General Concept -- B.2 Random Number Generators -- B.3 Inverse Transform Method of Generating Random Variates -- B.4 Important Random Variates in Risk Evaluation -- Appendix C Power-Flow Models -- C.1 AC Power-Flow Models -- C.2 DC Power-Flow Models -- Appendix D Optimization Algorithms -- D.1 Simplex Methods for Linear Programming -- D.2 Interior Point Method for Nonlinear Programming. 327 $aAppendix E Three Probability Distribution Tables -- References -- Index -- About the Author. 330 $aPower system risk assessment is becoming an important and mandatory task in planning, operation, maintenance, and asset management of utilities, particularly under the deregulation environment. This book will provide readers with the tools to solve practical problems using appropriate risk assessment techniques. Both analytical and Monte Carlo evaluation methods are discussed with an emphasis on applied techniques and actual considerations in generation, transmission, substation, and distribution systems. 410 0$aIEEE Press series on power engineering ;$v25 606 $aElectric power systems$xReliability$xMathematical models 606 $aMonte Carlo method 606 $aRisk assessment 615 0$aElectric power systems$xReliability$xMathematical models. 615 0$aMonte Carlo method. 615 0$aRisk assessment. 676 $a621.31 676 $a621.3191 700 $aLi$b Wenyuan$0521969 801 0$bCaBNVSL 801 1$bCaBNVSL 801 2$bCaBNVSL 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910145018003321 996 $aRisk assessment of power systems$91888807 997 $aUNINA