LEADER 05343nam 2200661 a 450 001 9910141382703321 005 20230621135335.0 010 $a0-19-178156-8 010 $a1-283-65823-2 010 $a0-19-164524-9 035 $a(CKB)2670000000259091 035 $a(EBL)1029656 035 $a(OCoLC)819615130 035 $a(SSID)ssj0000775459 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)12342749 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000775459 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)10742471 035 $a(PQKB)10598433 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC1029656 035 $a(StDuBDS)EDZ0000180990 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC5825755 035 $a(oapen)https://directory.doabooks.org/handle/20.500.12854/31453 035 $a(EXLCZ)992670000000259091 100 $a20131219d2012 fy| 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $auran#---uu|uu 181 $ctxt$2rdacontent 182 $cc$2rdamedia 183 $acr$2rdacarrier 200 10$aExplaining criminal careers$b[electronic resource] $eimplications for justice policy /$fJohn F. MacLeod, Peter G. Grove, David P. Farrington 205 $aFirst edition. 210 $aOxford $cOxford University Press$d2012 215 $a1 online resource (273 pages) $cillustrations 225 1 $aClarendon studies in criminology 300 $aDescription based upon print version of record. 311 $a0-19-969724-8 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references and index. 327 $aCover; Contents; 1. Criminal Career Research, Mathematical Models, and Testing Quantitative Predictions from Theories; Background; Blumstein and Cohen (1979); The National Academy Panel; Explaining the Growth in Recidivism Probabilities; Explaining the Individual Offending Frequency; Objections to Criminal Career Research; Criminal Career Research in the Last 20 Years; Aims of this Book; Methodological Notes; 2. An Analysis of the Offenders Index; Sources of Data; Recidivism; Reconviction Rate; Reconciling the Risk and Rate Categories; Gender; Is Criminality Constant over the Cohorts? 327 $a3. The Theory and a Simple ModelOrientation; Introduction; The Assumptions of our Theory; Explaining the Age-Crime Curve; The Rise in Crime from 10 to 17 Years of Age; Modelling the Age-Crime Curve; The 100,000 Active Prolific Offenders; Corollaries and Comments; Conclusion; 4. Criminal Careers of Serious, Less Serious, and Trivial Offenders; Orientation; Introduction; Offenders with Custody at First Court Appearance; Custody Rates; Serious Offenders; Less Serious Offenders; Serious Offences; Simplified Modelling of Convictions for Serious Offences; Simplified Modelling of all Convictions 327 $aVersatility or Specialization in OffendingTrivial Offenders; Conclusion; 5. Is Age the Primary Influence on Offending?; Orientation; Introduction; Possible Types of Age Dependence; Testing the Theories; Conclusion; 6. Characteristics of Individuals; Orientation; Introduction; The Rationale and Development of OASys; Analysis of the Pilot OASys Data; The Distribution of Section 11 Scores; Is there Structure in the Section 11 Information in OASys?; Homogeneous and Heterogeneous Section 11 Questions; Conclusions from the OASys Pilot Data Analysis; Analysis of Operational OASys Data 327 $aAnalysis of April 2004 PNC Conviction DataConclusions; 7. Applications for Managing the Criminal Justice System; Orientation; Introduction; The Flow Model; Predicting the Prison Population; The DNA Database; Conclusion; 8. Criminal Policy Implications; Orientation; Introduction; Overview of the Theory; The Categories; Areas where Policy could Influence Crime; Childhood Early Interventions; Early Career Interventions; Increasing the Efficiency of Conviction; Offender Treatment Programmes; Prolific and other Priority Offenders; Implications and Uses of the Theory; Frequently Asked Questions 327 $a9. Summary and ConclusionsSummary; The Origin of the Offender Categories; Criminality; Recidivism; Conviction Rate ?; The Effects of Formal Warnings and Cautions; The Criminal Career Debate; Conclusions; Appendix: Mathematical Notes; Introduction; Constant Probability Systems; Allocation of Offenders to the Risk/Rate Categories; An Alternative Modelling Approach; Incapacitation; Steady State Solutions; Estimating the Active Offender Population Size; Maximum Likelihood Estimation of the Recidivism Parameters; Bibliography; Index; A; B; C; D; F; G; I; L; M; N; O; P; R; S; T; V 330 8 $aUsing the Home Office Offenders Index, a unique database containing records of all criminal convictions in England and Wales since 1963, this simple but influential theory makes exact quantitative predictions about criminal careers and age-crime curves, in particular the prison population contingent on a given sentencing policy. 410 0$aClarendon studies in criminology. 606 $aCriminals$zGreat Britain 606 $aCriminal justice, Administration of$zGreat Britain 615 0$aCriminals 615 0$aCriminal justice, Administration of 676 $a365.66 700 $aMacLeod$b John F$0954629 701 $aGrove$b Peter G$01271677 701 $aFarrington$b David P$0784354 801 0$bStDuBDS 801 1$bStDuBDS 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910141382703321 996 $aExplaining criminal careers$92995721 997 $aUNINA